MLB Bets and NBA Bets – Friday May 10th – Vanishing Point

Good day from the Bets Network.  MLB Bets reached its event horizon yesterday as we were crushed in our 3 predictions.

This was no bad beat.  No agonizing loss in extra innings.  MLB Bets uses mostly underdogs as value points and Thursday the favorites won.  This will happen again and yes it’s no fun.

In the long run the Bets Network is ahead over many years, but there are days like this – please structure your betting platform to accommodate for 0-fer days and losing streaks.  We have seen them all here.

Favorites have their day but as a general rule, because the public is usually on them, the oddsmakers have to overprice them creating value on at least some dogs and some teams around pick that should be solid favorites.

The line you see posted is not necessarily what the bookies believe the line should be – the line is set where the house believes they will get an equal amount of money on both teams.  That means there is value hidden in some games and that’s the value the Bets Network is trying to exploit.

Here is an example.  The Houston Astros are 60-48 straight up in home games over the last 2 seasons.  The betting result?  The people who backed Houston in all those games are down 24.6 units even though they won 60 times.  The odds they had to lay were simply too high.

There will be times favorites win right thru public percentages and value.  It’s not just luck or a stroke of fate, it’s a mathematical certainty.

On the season we are now plus 21.12 units.  Here we go with the Friday baseball schedule and the NBA Bets section appears later in the article.  All plays valid regardless of pitching changes unless otherwise noted.  All times Eastern.

Let’s Start With An Underdog Out To Prove Something

White Sox  (+1.25)  upend the Blue Jays, 7:07 pm
Chicago came off a rain shortened game they were losing 5-0.  The game was called after 5 innings making it an official game and probably would not have been called when it was if it was not quite official.

Either that or they would have played thru more rain until it was official.  Why?  Because the Indians are considered a good playoff team and Chicago is considered an also-ran.  The White Sox know this and they are not happy about it.

This will either light a fire under them or have them crawl into a hole.  It’s too early in the season for the latter to be probable.

Anything can happen when you’re trying to analyze human psychology or predict the outcome of sporting events, but every professional ballplayer worked their tails off to get where they are and don’t like to be disrespected.  Even if they aren’t in this case it sure appears that way to them.

Both starting pitchers, Dylan Covey and Clay Buchholz, are nothing to write home about.  Chicago is 4-6 in their last 10 games.  They are 8-10 on the road, are 7-12 overall when playing winning teams, and have lost 2 in a row.

But wait a minute.  Toronto is 2-8 in their last 10 games.  They are 7-11 at home, are 6-13 overall when playing winning teams, and have lost 5 in a row.

This is where MLB Bets tries to find value in a side.  Looking at the above stats and given the pitchers as mostly equal, the White Sox should be the favorite here.

But the oddsmakers cannot make them the favorite unless they want one way action on the game, because at the inflated price of Toronto -1.35, as of this writing the public is flooding the Jays with 70% of the wagers placed.

This is a prime example of a MLB Bets selection.  Sure Toronto can win, but put in enough wagers where you have the edge and the long run belongs to you.

Mariners Should Not Be This Big A Dog

Seattle  (+1.88)  trips up Boston, 7:10 pm
Seattle has been on a loser and Boston is on a heater.  The overall record tells a completely different story.

Especially when a new series begins what’s been happening up to that point, while certainly not irrelevant, can change course – and sometimes dramatically.  While it’s a toss-up whether or not this happens, that’s the whole point.  It’s a toss-up getting close to 2-1 odds.

Erik Swanson goes for Seattle and his last start was at Cleveland where he threw 6 innings of 1-hit  no-run ball, so he can’t be considered an easy mark.  Eduardo Rodriguez for Boston has pitched fairly well himself although in his last home game against Oakland he allowed 4 runs in less than 5 innings.

What MLB Bets looks for in possible wagering situations is a starting pitcher formation that is not lopsided toward the big favorite.  This one is not, so the value lights go on.

We know how the short run has been – Boston has been outplaying Seattle by a wide margin.  So the public conclusion is this recent 10 game stretch means everything and the season as a whole therefore means nothing.

For a different perspective, let’s look at the season as a whole.  Both Seattle and Boston are at the .500 mark.  Seattle has a road record of 13-9 while Boston has a home record of 8-7.  Boston has a positive run differential of 1 but Seattle is positive by 12.

MLB Bets does not see any stat except recent play that points to this strong of a favorite being legitimate.  In order for the previous statement to be correct, the betting percentage must be at least over 50%.  As of this nighttime writing the public is backing Boston at a 63% rate, having bet the opening line of -1.75 up to -2.02.

Seattle should not be the favorite tonight but they are a play at this exaggerated odds level.  MLB Bets says it’s a go.

Welcome To ‘The Line Is Too High’ Territory

San Diego  (+1.60)  should be a pick against Colorado, 8:40 pm
The line says Colorado is far superior to San Diego.  Everything else says they are not.

The Padres have a better overall record, a better record in the last 10 games, a better record on the road than the Rockies have at home, and have played a tougher overall schedule according to win/loss records this year.  They are 18 runs better in runs scored vs given up.

So by the line the starting pitchers should favor Colorado – but in the last 3 starts Eric Lauer has a 3.45 ERA as opposed to German Marquez posting a 5.40 ERA.  In German Marquez’s last home start for Colorado, he tossed 6 innings giving up 5 runs.

Coors Field is a tough place to pitch, but at least we can say the Rocky starter is not dominant.  That, coupled with the stats above, means MLB Bets will be on the Pads.  As of this writing the favorite has been bet up from -1.50 to -1.70 on 64% of the wagers placed.

Washington  (+1.86)  undervalued against Los Angeles, 10:10 pm  –  1/2 a unit play
The line projects the Dodgers as easy victors.  They lost yesterday as a strong favorite.

The Nationals are not rolling over out West as evidenced by a wire to wire win at Dodger Stadium last night.  The starting pitchers are relatively even tonight, neither one in top form but with potential.

The stats side heavily with Los Angeles so that is why this is a half unit play.  However Washington is still worth a shot.  Anytime a medium to strong underdog wins it’s a good idea to take notice.  You never know when a team not expected to compete can take control of a series, even against the team with the best home record percentage wise in baseball.

Giants Topple Reds

San Francisco  (+1.46)  stymies Cincinnati, 10:15 pm
The Reds are getting too much credit for potential yet to be realized.  While Luis Castillo has been pitching  great for the Reds, his last start at home against San Francisco was a dud.

Dereck Rodriguez for the Giants has had two bad outings in a row now, one of which was against the Reds, but the line being jammed up 20 cents from the opener on 63% of the bets is too much trust in Cincinnati.

The Reds are 7-14 on the road this season and the last 10 games show the Reds 4-6 while San Francisco is 5-5.  Cincy could bring home a winner on the back of a better starting pitcher formation, but when MLB Bets sees a pitcher just had trouble with another particular team it wants to stay on that trend.

NBA Bets For Friday May 10th:

With Kevin Durant now ruled out for game 6 tonight in Houston, NBA Bets wants to stay the course on the Houston plus 1 game series future prop.

With the game line now fairly high at Houston -7, NBA Bets cannot find a mathematical edge here so it will not be recommending a side on this game tonight.  We will just be rooting for the Rockets to win, sending this series to a game 7 and giving us a free shot at the series future.

MLB Bets Recap For Friday May 10th:

White Sox  +1.25
Seattle  +1.88
San Diego  +1.60
San Francisco  +1.46
Washington  +1.86  –  1/2 unit play

Other underdogs are close to becoming plays including Baltimore, Miami and the Yankees.  They will be tweeted out if they make it into the play zone.

Best of luck and success from the Bets Network