MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday, 5/10 – Can you speak German?

MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, 5/10

Welcome back to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

We have a massive 14-game slate tonight so there are 28 pitchers taking the bump. I’m going to give you my favorite five pitchers at different price tiers today, significantly narrowing down the field.   I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end, don’t worry!

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Trevor Cahill (-160) vs. Dan Straily 

Dylan Covey vs. Clay Buchholz (-130)

Pablo Lopez vs. Zach Wheeler (-185)

Domingo German vs. Tyler Glasnow (-150)

Erik Swanson vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (-200)

Tyson Ross vs. Jake Odorizzi (-210)

Lance Lynn vs. Justin Verlander (-250)

Jake Arrieta (-135) vs. Homer Bailey

Trevor Williams vs. Adam Wainright

Eric Lauer vs. German Marquez (-170)

Cody Anderson vs. Frankie Montas

Julio Teheran vs. Zack Greinke (-130)

Anibal Sanchez vs. Kenta Maeda (-190)

Luis Castillo (-140)  vs. Dereck Rodriguez

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Justin Verlander (11.3k FD, 11k DK) vs. Texas

My cash game pick is driven mainly by ownership as I expect Verlander to be heavily owned in cash games. You could argue that the other high-priced arms are possibly in better spots vs. weaker opponents, but the track record of Verlander is hard to pass up for only a few hundred more dollars.

JV faced the Rangers twice this season already in Arlington but gets them back in Houston for the first time. He had his worst start of the season against these Rangers back in early April, but bounced back on April 19th to dominate them. In his last three starts in Houston against the Rangers, he’s got a superb 1.89 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 19 innings.

JV’s biggest weakness this season has been the long ball, and his 19.6% HR/FB ratio is the highest of his career. This could spell trouble against the powerful Texas bats, but it also could suggest some positive regression is coming for Verlander as far as giving up long balls. I think he has enough strikeouts built into this matchup that he’s safe enough for cash games and I’ll take the veteran over these next two youngsters I’m going to suggest for GPPs.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Tyler Glasnow (10.7k FD, 10.4k DK) vs. New York Yankees

Glasnow is emerging as the Rays ace and Pirate fans like myself are just shaking their heads as Pittsburgh gave up Glasnow and stud outfielder Austin Meadows to acquire an underperforming Chris Archer last season at the deadline.

Glasnow been superb this season for the Rays and has some of the best numbers of any pitcher in the game right now with a 6-0 record and a 1.47 ERA. His advanced stats look great, too, as he has a 51% groundball rate, .89 WHIP, and 29% K rate.

He gets to face the struggling Yankees at home, and I love taking the Tampa pitchers at home where they have a positive park factor working in their favor. The Yankees recently got Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar back, but are still without Judge and Stanton.  Glasnow has dominated some bad teams this year (Baltimore, Chicago) but has also shown up big against good competition, too (Houston, Boston). I have no problem pivoting off Verlander to Glasnow here in a great spot and I think he could easily outscore JV if he’s got his good stuff tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2

Luis Castillo (10.5k FD, 10.6k DK)

Like Glasnow, Luis Castillo is another young thrower who is finally learning how to pitch. The hard-throwing righty is enjoying the best stretch of his career and is off to a great start this season. Castillo’s most impressive stat to me is his .98 WHIP since he has really struggled with control early on in his career. His 13.8% swinging strike rate is one of the best on the slate and he has double-digit strikeout upside every time he takes the hill thanks to his mid-90s fastball and excellent changeup.

Castillo just faced these Giants back in Cincy, striking out 9 of them in 7 innings. He was dominant until the 6th inning when he gave up 4 runs and ended up with a no-decision. He gets a major park upgrade here moving out of the Great American ballpark and I’m willing to bet on him performing well against these Giants again and keeping the ball in the park.

The Giants are not usually a team to target for strikeouts, but Castillo’s a strikeout pitcher who can rack up Ks against anyone. He’s about the same price as Glasnow on both sites and I usually lean towards the NL pitcher if it’s a tie, since he gets to face the opposing pitcher. It’s close, but I give Castillo a slight edge over Glasnow as my top GPP pitcher on the slate.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

German Marquez (7.9k FD, 9.1k DK)

Marquez is priced very differently by the sites tonight, which is why I have him listed as a cheap arm as he’s under 8k on FanDuel. He’s an SP2 on DK tonight because I plan on paying up for two good arms since there aren’t too many under 9k that I trust or I think have much upside.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you’ll know that I was in on the ground level of the “German Marquez coming out party” last season and I rode him hard all throughout the second half of last season. He started this season off really well, too, but recently has given up 9 earned runs in his last two outings in two difficult matchups against Milwaukee and Arizona.

Tonight he bounces back in a big way. His price on FanDuel is insulting for a pitcher of his caliber as he’s priced below guys like Montas, Rodriguez, Arrieta, and Teheran. The Coors Field factor must be getting priced in here, but I’d take Marquez pitching on the Moon over those four any day! This guy can pitch! He’s averaging a strikeout per inning and his tidy1.08 WHIP shows that he’s not walking guys or allowing many baserunners. I will be firing him up in tourneys on both sites and I expect him to be low owned!

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Pablo Lopez (7.2k FD, 8.1k DK)

Lopez is coming off one of his best starts of the season, six innings of shut out baseball against a formidable Atlanta offense in which he allowed only 4 baserunners. He’s a talented young pitcher who has shown signs of emerging as a reliable arm for this young Marlins staff and I have a ton of interest in him today against a Mets offense that has been struggling.

He has a lot of positive indicators here. A groundball rate of 51%, striking out a batter per inning, and a FIP of 2.79 that suggests that he’s been pitching really well and his ERA is yet to catch up. He’s the cheapest guy I’m considering on either site. He’s probably not entirely cash safe, but I don’t mind him as a cash SP2 if you want to save some salary for your bats.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Verlander and Lopez while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Castillo and Marquez.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Verlander
2. Castillo
3. Glasnow
4. Lopez (SP2)

GPP Rankings

1. Marquez
2. Castillo
3. Glasnow
4. Lopez

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!