English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Championship Sunday 5/12/19

Wow, it’s really here.  Championship Sunday 2019.  It seems like just last week the English Premier League season was beginning.  We’re down to the final day and the title is still up for grabs between Liverpool and Manchester City.  Cardiff, Fulham, and Huddersfield have been relegated, and there isn’t much else meaningful to play for aside from maybe Arsenal and Manchester United duking it out for 5th place. 

Before I get started today, I just wanted to thank everyone for reading my English Premier League DFS breakdowns this year.  It’s been a great first EPL season at FantasyCPR, and I look forward to many more.  Obviously this will be my last EPL breakdown, but a UCL Final/Europa League Final/FA Cup Final breakdown could be in the works in the coming weeks.

For those who don’t know, the final day of every EPL season features all 20 teams playing at the same time, so we have an absolutely massive slate on Sunday with 10 games (6-7 is typical).  Generally speaking, this day is one of the highest scoring, if not the highest scoring, days of the season.  In the last 9 years, there have been at least 3.5 goals per game on three different occasions.  Expect much of the same this time around.

From an injury perspective, Harry Kane remains out for Tottenham and Roberto Firmino is a big question mark up top for Liverpool.  Mo Salah is also dealing with an injury and it remains to be seen whether or not he will suit up.  Those are the biggest names to watch.  There are many others, but I’m not going over the injury report for all 20 teams.  If you need that information, it can be found elsewhere.

English Premier League DFS Target Forwards

Sergio Aguero (Manchester City @ Brighton, $13,000) – On principle, I am not a huge fan of paying this for a chalky striker especially with literally every premier league player on the slate.  However, Manchester City is trying to win a title on Sunday.  They will jump on Brighton early and often and Brighton will not be able to contain them.  They’re giving up 1.51 goals per game this season.  Aguero is a world class striker on a team that can win the league with a win.  I would want a piece of him in cash, but he can be faded in GPPs just due to the number of players available.

Wilfried Zaha (Bournemouth @ Crystal Palace, $11,500) – Zaha is a prime high-risk high reward GPP target on Sunday.  Bournemouth do not defend well away from home as they give up over 2 goals per game on the road this year.  Zaha has had an up and down season, but he is in good form right now with 2 goals in 3 games to go along with 7 chances created in those games.  As we’ve seen this year, his floor is in the single digits, but this is a good spot for him to end the season with a goal.  Forward teammate Michy Batshuayi ($8,000) found the back of the net last week and is a viable punt in this matchup.

Jamie Vardy (Chelsea @ Leicester City, $11,000) – Vardy is another GPP favorite of mine.  He has a long history of scoring against top clubs since Leicester joined the Premier League, which he’ll look to continue at home against Chelsea on Sunday.  Chelsea have already clinched a UCL qualifying spot for next year and they had a Europa League game that went 120 minutes plus PKs on Thursday.  I see Chelsea being lackadaisical in this game which should benefit Vardy.  Chelsea has been a great defensive team at home this year but it’s a different story on the road where they are allowing 1.5 goals per game.  Vardy comes with a decent floor given his abilities to create chances and put shots on goal, but at $11k we’re really banking on a goal here.

Value Forwards

Salomon Rondon (Newcastle @ Fulham, $10,000) – If you’ve been following along this season, you know how crucial Rondon’s play has been for Newcastle this year.  Whenever Newcastle scores, he is more likely to be involved (assist or goal) than not.  Good thing for Newcastle that is they’re facing a Fulham side that has given up the most goals this season.  The bad thing for Rondon is that the goal total for this game is only 2.5, which is tied for lowest along with the Tottenham vs. Everton game.  This isn’t ideal, but it doesn’t scare me too much.  Rondon is one of the better forwards at collecting peripheral stats which gives him a safer floor than most.  He’s also capable of providing a fairly high ceiling.  The bottom line here is that if you don’t want to pay all the way down for a forward (because FWD value is severely lacking), Rondon is a good mid-tier option.

Shane Long (Huddersfield @ Southampton, $9,000) – Long is coming into this game with three goals in his last four starts for Southampton.  This is a great matchup for Southampton attackers because Huddersfield are giving up an average of 2.44 goals per game on the road this season.  That’s the worst average in the league.  Southampton (-230) are solid favorites and the goal total for this game is a healthy 3.0.  Game log watchers will likely be all over Long for this price which could raise his ownership, but I think it still stays relatively low.  In the first half of the season, Danny Ings ($8,500) had six 20+ FDP games, but he hasn’t hit that mark since December.  I still like him some given the matchup, but I don’t feel it necessary to prioritize him.

English Premier League DFS Target Midfielders

Eden Hazard (Chelsea @ Leicester City, $12,000) – The top tier midfielders are much more enticing than the top tier forwards on this slate, and it starts with Hazard.  He’s had an outstanding season statistically for Chelsea this year, and this will likely be his last EPL game in a Chelsea shirt so there’s narrative here.  He put up a whopping 43.3 FDP in his last game without even scoring, and he’s averaging over 30 FDP in his last 6 games.  There is some concern that this game turns into a sleeper, however given the history of goals on Championship Sunday I am not worried about that.  Hazard is one of the safest top midfielders.

Raheem Sterling (Manchester City @ Brighton, $12,000) – The list of stud midfielders continues with Sterling.  You could copy and paste the majority of Aguero’s write up here and it would fit.  City controls their own destiny and wins the EPL title if they win this game.  Plus Sterling has been one of their most important attackers all season, and that won’t stop now.  Like Aguero, a ceiling game for Sterling is definitely possible on Sunday.

Sadio Mane (Wolverhampton @ Liverpool, $11,000) – This section of stud midfielders would not be complete without mention of a Liverpool player.  Mo Salah ($11,500) is dealing with an injury and his status is still unknown as I write this.  Both stars are playing well right now, and they need a win to have any hopes of winning the title.  Like City, I expect Liverpool to try and pounce on Wolverhampton early and often on Sunday.  However, this is a much tougher matchup for Liverpool against a Wolves team that has frustrated opposing attackers all season.  Differentiating between Hazard, Sterling, Mane, and Salah will be difficult, but each is just as capable of putting up a big number as the next.

Matt Ritchie (Newcastle @ Fulham, $8,500) – Matt Ritchie doesn’t look like he fits in with the rest of the this category, but he should not be overlooked.  Ritchie is averaging 21 FDP over his last 7 games, and that’s been pretty routine for one of the league’s most consistent fantasy performers.  This is one of the best matchups for attackers.  With the number of high-priced studs on the slate, I expect Ritchie’s ownership to remain low even though he’s a really good bet to get you 3x value.

Value Midfielders

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing (Cardiff @ Manchester United, $7,500) – Mendez-Laing is never anyone I would’ve thought I’d ever include in a breakdown, but here we are.  He’s been over 20 FDP 3 times in his last 4 games after only doing so once this season prior to April.  Traditionally, this is a difficult matchup on the road against Manchester United.  However, United really isn’t playing for much and the goal total for this game is 3.5 (tied for highest on the slate).  I’m banking on the history of a lot of goals on Championship Sunday to help me out here, but I can see plenty of action in this game on both ends.  Mendez-Laing will not be high owned and is a prime GPP candidate.

Phil Foden (Manchester City @ Brighton, $7,000) – The young star seems to have cracked City’s starting XI in the absence of Fernandinho and Kevin de Bruyne.  That’s great for us DFS players.  Foden provides some exceptional value and cheap exposure to a City team that can clinch a league title with a win and who are the largest favorites on the slate.  The 18-year-old has only started 3 EPL games this year, so his game log and average FDP are deceiving.  Given a start, Foden can easily outscore a midfielder in the $9,000-10,000 range.  He’ll likely make my lineups for cash and GPP lobbies.  Getting cheap exposure to City like Ilkay Gundogan ($7,000) and Oleksandr Zinchenko ($6,500) is a smart idea.

Both Hamza Choudury ($5,000) and Pedro Obiang ($5,000) provide some deep midfielder value if you’re looking to find salary for more studs.  Choudury has started 2 games in a row now and has gone over 3x value both times.  This is a good game environment for him against Chelsea.  Obiang gets all kinds of peripheral stats.  WHU vs. WAT should have a lot of play in the midfield which will help Obiang hit value.

English Premier League DFS Target Defenders

In one of my first English Premier League DFS breakdowns this season, I called that we would see defenders priced at $8,000 before the end of the season.  FanDuel is coming through just in time to help me out with that claim.  Lucas Digne ($8,000) and Trent Alexander-Arnold ($8,000) have both surpassed that threshold now.  Despite the price bump, I still find both defenders viable.  For Digne, 7 out of his last 8 games have been over 20 FDP with 4/7 being 28+ (that’s still 3.5x value).  Everton have been playing well and Tottenham are surely more focused on the UCL Final than this last EPL game.  I’d be willing to give Digne a go hoping that people are off him with the price tag.  TAA has 5 22+ FDP games in his last 6.  Liverpool need to win and TAA will be a major part of their attack on Sunday.  This is a more difficult matchup against Wolverhampton, but I’d also be willing to pay for him as well.  If you want to pay up for a defender, take one of these two because there is not much else worthy of paying up for after them.

Shane Duffy (Manchester City @ Brighton, $6,000) – After Digne and TAA, I’m really looking for the defenders with the best chance of getting me 3x value.  Duffy is Brighton’s best fantasy defender, and he’ll have so many opportunities on Sunday to get his defensive stats.  There will be nonstop action on his end of the field as City try to pound them into the ground.  Duffy has some big-game potential on his peripheral stats alone (4 30+ games this year), and I foresee another big game from him on Sunday at low ownership.

Value Defenders

Martin Kelly (Bournemouth @ Crystal Palace, $5,500) – Finding DEF value on this slate is tough, which unfortunately won’t help you pay up for studs.  Kelly hasn’t started many games this year, but he does have 16+ FDP in 5 of his last 6 games (2.9x value).  Generally, Bournemouth play a pretty open game which should allow Kelly to get enough peripherals to get you 3x value on Sunday.  Additionally, Palace don’t allow many goals at home so an extra 5 points for keeping a clean sheet could be useful.

Steve Cook (Bournemouth @ Crystal Palace, $5,000) – On this slate, I’m looking for players who are at least somewhat consistently getting 3x value.  Cook has gone over the 3x value mark at his current price 7 times in the last 11 games.  I don’t love this matchup for him, but he should still get you 15+ points if you need to save money for studs.

Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea @ Leicester City, $5,000) – Perhaps the value defender with the biggest upside is Azpilicueta.  His price has come down about $1,000 over the course of the season, but that’s more due to a gross overrating initially than poor play.  Actually, he’s gone over 3x value 7 out of the last 11 games (just like Cook), but 4 of those 7 have resulted in 4x value.  He’s just as prone to a single digit game as any defender in this price range, but he has the best upside.

Bruno (Manchester City @ Brighton, $4,000) – If you’re looking at taking a shot at a minimum priced player on Sunday, it should be Bruno.  The 38-year-old Spaniard said he was officially retiring after this game.  He’s played 200+ games with Brighton since joining in 2012.  There’s no doubt he’ll be pumped in his last game in front of the home crowd, and he gets a chance to spoil City’s title hopes.  The bummer here is that Bruno just really is not a defender made for the fantasy game.  Of his 13 EPL appearances this season, he’s scored in double digits only twice.  Maybe some extra emotion will help him get you 3x value (only needs 12 FDP).

English Premier League DFS Goalkeepers

Ederson (Manchester City @ Brighton, $6,500) – I am willing to pay up for Ederson on this slate, and I’ll tell you why.  History says there will be a lot of goals on this slate, right?  So that means there will be less clean sheet bonuses being handed out come full time on Sunday.

City is the one team that needs to win more than anyone else, and that could mean shutting Brighton out.  That should not be super difficult though because Brighton are scoring an average of less than one goal per game.  Should City concede, it will be difficult for Ederson to hit value, but I think that’s unlikely.  The win bonus is also almost a lock here.

Jordan Pickford (Everton @ Tottenham, $5,500) – After struggling defensively early on in this season, Everton have kept a clean sheet in a crazy 7 of their last 9 EPL games which included Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester United.  This is not a great matchup, but I think Tottenham doesn’t play well in this game coming off their high of advancing to next month’s UCL Final.  Unlike Ederson, Pickford could still have a decent game based on save points if Everton does give up a goal.

Thanks for reading my last English Premier League DFS breakdown of the 2018—19 season.  Keep your eyes peeled for possible breakdowns with the 3 upcoming finals.  With women’s soccer teams pushing for equality it would be great if DFS sites took notice and developed a platform to play DFS during this summer’s Women’s World Cup (especially since they have plenty of slates last year for the men).  If not, I’ll be back next August for the beginning of a new EPL season!