Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top MLB DFS Value Plays – Sunday, May 12th
Daily Fantasy Baseball is in full swing, and whether you play on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, or Fantasy Draft, this article is designed to help you find the best value plays across the board for today’s slate. These low salary targets are my top players to help you roster your stud bats and pitchers.
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While most of our content is site specific, whether it be for hitting or pitching, this article is going to be different. What I will do here, is evaluate potential value plays for that particular day, across the four major DFS sites.
So the plan of attack here is, first I will highlight my top value plays for Yahoo and Fantasy Draft. I will dig up certain plays that I think fit their scoring systems, and possible flaws in pricing. I will then do the same for FanDuel, and then for DraftKings.
Finally after I break down my favorites from each site specifically, I will then finish up with top overall multi-site value plays. These are the top players viable across the industry, who are in line to out produce their respective salary, no matter what the site. All of these plays are just simply the best value plays that stand out across the industry, regardless of site.
One minor change-up for today. Since I plan to sit out the main slate on Yahoo, I will have no picks today. Their main slate is the full fifteen games, and some of them afternoon games will not have lineups available in time for lock.
In an effort to shorten this up today, I will stick with Fantasy Draft, DraftKings, and FanDuel, and may continue do that on certain days. All three sites have nine game main slates starting at 12:05 PM CST, and that should make things a little easier for everyone. So without further ado, let’s get to it!
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – FantasyDraft
SP – Martin Perez – Minnesota Twins – $16,300
Let’s start today’s value plays with some pitching shall we? The Twins red-hot offense will face another lefty in Daniel Norris, and Minnesota will counter with a lefty themselves, in reinvented veteran Martin Perez. Perez was placed on the paternity list for the birth of his child prior to yesterdays double-header, but he is expected to be back today to face to the Tigers.
Perez is 5-0 with a 2.83 ERA, but this looks to not be sustainable. Regression will happen as hitters figure out the change-up and adjust, and a SIERA and xFIP of around 4.40 each suggest this. However, I don’t think that will happen today against Detroit.
The match-up is good, and Perez is also coming off of maybe the best back-to-back starts of his career. He put up 32.4 FDP two starts ago against the Astros, and followed that with a 35.35 FDP gem against Toronto in his last start. With bad weather in a major pitcher spot in New York likely, let’s go with another value pitcher here on Fantasy Draft, as I really like this mid-tier of pitching today.
SP – Lucas Giolito – Chicago White Sox – $15,000
So we have a legit ace on the hill today in Blake Snell against the Yankees, and a couple more in New York expected with Caleb Smith and Noah Syndergaard facing off. However, with that rain making things dicey for pitching in the latter, I figured I will give two pitching options today, as I love both of these match-ups with Perez and Lucas Giolito, and rostering both can really allow us to load up on some bats.
Giolito is not coming off his best start of the season against the Indians, in which he tossed 7 1/3 innings and struck out eight. Today he gets the Blue Jays, and we have a little advanced metric I want to touch on today for a change.
Giolito is primarily a fastball pitcher, but he has a deadly slider as a strikeout pitch, and the Blue Jays happen to be notoriously bad against that pitch. Giolito’s slider has a SwStr% of 27.7% (swinging strike rate) , and a K% of 62.5%. If you start your lineup on Fantasy Draft with Giolito and Perez today, you will have just over $8,500 per player remaining in salary, which will allow to stack up all these Twins I am about to talk about.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – FanDuel
OF – Byron Buxton – Minnesota Twins – $2,900
FanDuel is tightening up the pricing a little bit, as some of my previous favorite go to guys are starting to get priced a bit. Not to worry, I see a bottom of the lineup wraparound stack here I can get behind a bit for GPP play this afternoon.
Buxton got a rest in the first game of the double-header yesterday, and returned to lineup with a bang in game two. He laced a double in the gap against rookie lefty Gregory Soto, and ended up with a 2-for-4 night. Buxton hit lefties really well two years ago as a rookie, then his numbers dipped a bit last year. It looks as though he is getting back to that 2017 form, and he gets another lefty today in Norris.
I hate the fact that he hits so low in the lineup, but the wraparound idea starts with some more value in Jonathan Schoop in the eight spot who is also too cheap at $2,900, then following it up with Buxton and projected leadoff hitter and our next target, Mitch Garver.
C/1B – Mitch Garver – Minnesota Twins – $3,100
I was going to go with Schoop here actually because he fits the theme, but he is the one bat in this Twins lineup that makes some sense to fade here with all of the other choices. If you are on board with me with this Twins stack, I highly recommend not leaving out Garver.
Garver may not get any love C.J. Cron just $100 more, but I will have at least one team with both, using one in my utility spot. Cron had a monster day yesterday, but Garver continues to mash as he ripped an RBI triple, bringing his batting average up to .348.
More impressive with Garver is the extra-base hits, as 12 of his 23 hits have now gone for extra bases. Garver has seven homers on the season, and while six of those have came against right-handed pitching, he boasts a .533 batting average against lefties in 15 at-bats.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – DraftKings
2B – Adam Frazier – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,800
I may be wrapped up in Minnesota a little today, but I can’t forget my lefties against Dakota Hudson today. Frazier has gotten a price bump on FanDuel, keeping him from the last page today, but his $7,300 tag on Fantasy Draft also has me very interested.
Frazier had his seven game hitting streak snapped with an 0-for-4 yesterday, but with numerous good spots to target, one I will not overlook today is a Pirates stack with all lefties. Gregory Polanco is also too cheap at $8,200, so let’s touch on Hudson and find out why I am here.
Hudson is a former first-round pick, and will likely be a middle of the rotation type starter at some point in his career, but he is off to a slow start. It is hard to find stats like this that are so bad, but in 14.1 innings against left-handed bats this season, Hudson has allowed a whopping eight home runs.
Lefties have also tagged him for a .414 batting average, and a .531 wOBA. I love mixing Josh Bell in here with Frazier and Polanco, and adding another lefty in Colin Moran is yet another value option.
1B – C.J. Cron – Minnesota Twins – $3,900
I mentioned that Cron had a monster day earlier, so let’s dig in to that here first. He homered in both games of the double-header yesterday, and finished game two of the double-dip 4-for-5 with that homer, a double, and three RBI’s.
I happen to catch that fifth inning homer off the rookie Soto which knocked him out of the game, and it was an absolute missile line drive that was gone in the blink of an eye. I cannot remember the exact exit velocity, but it was crushed.
Cron is now hitting .261 on this season, raising his average nearly 30 points yesterday, and the home runs were numbers eight and nine. He has had a surprisingly low number of at-bats against lefties this season, but they are really impressive now after yesterday. Cron is now hitting .389 with four homers in just 18 at-bats against southpaws, and he figures to stay hot against another lefty this afternoon.
Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Value Plays – Across the Industry!
Welcome to the most important, and final page of the article. On most days, certain value plays will line up well on 2 or three, or even all of the sites covered in this article.
From the looks of it, I have a piece of every player coming up here on at least two sites in my early lineups, so just because you did not see somebody yet on another site specific slide from earlier, he could be coming up right now.
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OF – Josh Reddick – Houston Astros – ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD, $7,600 FantasyDraft)
I have been watching Reddick pretty closely this season, as he has gone from a home run or bust guy to a hit-for-average type, and he is having a fantastic season because of it. With Jose Altuve out for the time being, Reddick slid into the two spot into the lineup, and was able to drive in a run with his 1-for-5 game.
Texas will have Adrian Sampson on the hill today, so expect some Astros chalk once again. Reddick is hitting .350 against right-handed pitching this season on exactly 100 at-bats, but he has just five extra-base hits with two doubles and three homers.
SS – J.P. Crawford – Seattle Mariners ($3,600 DK, $2,300 FD, $7,200 FantasyDraft)
It took a few days for these sites to get Crawford loaded in the data bases, and I will be going right to him here today with numerous factors in his favor. The former Phillies prospect started the season in the minors, but the call when Tim Beckham landed on the IL this week. Crawford has also slid into the two spot in this lineup, and at 3-for-8 in two games so far I guess we can say so far so good.
The Mariners will face Hector Velasquez at Fenway this afternoon, and while he has been good against lefties this season, his small sample size of just over 20 innings wasn’t quite doing it for me. Throughout his career, he has been worse against lefties than righties, but he has been a surprisingly decent pitcher overall. I think I will curb my urge to stack Mariners today, and just use the super cheap Crawford as a one-off.
That is all for today’s edition of MLB DFS Top Value Plays. I hope you like the format, as I think this is the best way to talk about which value bats and pitchers to consider, no matter what site you play on.
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