DraftKings PGA: 2019 PGA Championship Picks and Analysis
Welcome to the 2nd major of the year: The 2019 PGA Championship. DraftKings will be hosting another Millionaire Maker for the 2019 PGA Championship, and this article is meant to help you win the $1,000,000 prize!
The PGA Championship has a stacked field this week, as every top PGA pro will be vying for a piece of the $12,000,000 purse. Everybody who is anybody will be in the field this week, so the tournament is truly up for grabs.
The 2018 PGA Championship was played not too far outside of St. Louis at Bellerive Country Club. Brooks Koepka topped Tiger Woods by 2 strokes cruising to his 2nd major victory of 2018.
Unlike the 2018 PGA Championship, the 2019 edition will be play as the second major. The PGA Championship moves from August to May, which is huge for weather implications.
Bethpage Black plays host to the 2019 PGA Championship. The public course in upstate New York last hosted a PGA tour event in 2012 and 2016, playing host to The Barclays as part of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Patrick Reed won the event in 2016 at 9-under par, and Nick Watney claimed the 2012 trophy at -10. Bethpage Black played as a par-71 for The Barclays, but will be played as a Par-70 for the PGA Championship.
Bethpage Black is an extremely difficult tract. The AW Tillinghast design will play 7,436 yards with tight fairways, nasty fescue, raised greens, and lots of bunkers. The weather will make this course even more difficult this year. With the tournament in May, the course is going to play even longer in the colder weather. Pair the colder temperatures with the wet weather in New York this May, and this course is going to be a bear.
The key to success at Bethpage Black is keeping the ball in the fairway. The rough here is nasty, and loaded with bunkers or fescue. A significant amount of these greens are raised, and the only way to attack pins is from the fairways.
Driving Distance Gained
Bethpage Black Gained
As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.
DraftKings PGA: 2019 PGA Championship – Picks
Dustin is playing as good of golf as anyone in the field. He ranks 1st In my model, and is top-10 in the field in just about all of my key stats. He ranks 1st in the field in Bogey Avoidance, Par-4 Scoring, and Putting on Poa. Johnson’s history at this course is solid, with a T3 in 2012 and a T18 in 2016. Johnson tied for 40th in 2009 when the US Open was held at Bethpage Black.
Dustin Johnson is searching for his second major. Sandwiched between Rory and Tiger, I see DJ’s ownership hovering around 15% this week. The price tag is hefty, but I cannot fade DJ this week. Johnson won the US Open in 2016 at a similar venue in Oakmont Country Club, and I can see him capturing his 2nd major next weekend.
$9,200 Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood is a class golfer and his name always seems to pop up at long difficult tracts. Fleetwood finished 2nd last year at the US Open, which was hosted by Shinnecock Hills. That course is somewhat similar to this layout, and should play similarly difficult. Fleetwood has yet to miss a cut this year on the PGA Tour Even with that, he has yet to miss a cut this season, with 4 top-10 finishes to his name. Fleetwood finished T8 at the British Masters this weekend in preparation for the PGA Championship.
Fleetwood has never played the course, but he sets up well in my model. Fleetwood is the 2nd ranked golfer in the field tee-to-green. He is also 2nd in the field at long difficult courses. Fleetwood ranks 9th in my model, and has his best putting splits on Poa. Fleetwood is always popular at the majors, but may garner slightly less ownership being sandwiched between Fowler and Xander. I am still looking at 20% ownership in the Millionaire Maker though.
$8,100 Adam Scott
Scott has not played a whole lot of golf this year, but has made the most of the rounds he has played. Scott has played in 9 PGA tournaments this year. In those tournaments he is 7/9 in made cuts with 6/7 top-20 finishes.
Scott ranks 17th in my model, sporting great numbers in Approach, DK scoring, and putting on Poa. Scott has played this course really well, finishing 62nd in 2012 and T4 in 2016.
DraftKings PGA: 2019 PGA Championship – Values
$7,900 Sergio Garcia
Garcia will likely get talked up a lot this week. His game is in great form, he has had success at Bethpage Black, and his best putting splits come on Poa. The last time we saw Garcia, he finished T4 at the Wells Fargo, striking the ball brilliantly.
Garcia ranks 13th in my model, sporting great numbers in Approach, and Bogey Avoidance. Sergio has played Bethpage really well, finishing 4th in 2002 at the US Open, T10 in 2009 at the US Open, and T3 in 2012 at the Barclays. I think this course sets up nicely for him.
$7,600 Webb Simpson
Webb is playing really good golf. He has 3 straight top-20 finishes (including a T5 at The Masters), and has finished in the top-20 in 8 of his 12 starts in the 2019 season. Webb has brought his A-game for the big events over the past couple of years, and I see him doing that again for the PGA Championship.
Webb ranks 4th in my model despite this small price-tag. He ranks top-10 in the field in Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling Gained, and SG:Total. Webb has not had great success at Bethpage, but is a guy I trust to significantly outperform his price this week.
$7,000 Jim Furyk
Furyk may be too short off the tee for Bethpage Black. However, if the course plays extremely difficult like I expect, then Furyk can make this into a par-fest. From a $7,000, a made cut is what you are looking for.
Furyk has been hovering around the top of my model the past few tournaments, meaning that Jim Furyk is playing some really good golf. Furyk ranks 11th in my model, ranking top-10 in the field in SG:APP, Bogey’s Avoided, SG:Scrambling, and Faiway Gained.
Check out more articles by the author and make sure to follow @Mystery_Main for up-to-date injuries, withdrawals, and ownership projections up until the tournament. Also, follow @FantasyCPR for your daily fantasy fix.