MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 13 – Freddy the 13th!
Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s MLB DFS slate was relatively simple in that you needed the big bats to even come close to cashing with Alex Bregman, George Springer, Josh Bell and JD Martinez all going off for 37+ fantasy points, with Springer and Bregman both sporting 30% or higher ownership in GPP play.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Monday’s Pitching Breakdown:
We have a nice little six game slate here on Monday Night for MLB DFS with no weather issues on the Main Slate, which excludes the 6:35 PM EST Yankees/Orioles match-up which could be the only one to deal with some rain.
At first glance, we have a handful of really strong pitching options on this slate but due to some tough opposition, finding the “perfect” fits becomes a real challenge.
Robbie Ray ($19.4K) gets a home start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team we normally do not think of as a high K line-up, but against lefties, this projected line-up is sporting a 28% K rate against LHP since the start of 2018. In 2019, the Pirates have a 28.4% K rate against LHP which is the 4th highest in baseball and going against an elite K arm like Ray, who has a 30% plus K rate since the start of 2018 could give Ray a path to a DFS ceiling type of game here tonight.
Jose Berrios ($17.9K) at home continues to be a thing – the splits are real folks. In his career, Berrios has pitched to an ERA of 1.5 runs lower at home with a K rate 6% higher and a HR/9 rate of only 0.6 and those trends have continued in 2019.
So far in 2019, Berrios has a 1.92 ERA at home with a 28% K rate which is 8% higher than his road mark with 21, 25, 25 and 39 fantasy points in his 4 home starts. The issue here today is that facing the Angels, a team with a 13% K rate against RHP, could limit his K upside even though he is at home.
Matthew Boyd (16.8K) has been exceptional in 2019 and with a 30% plus K rate to start the year, and with Jose Altuve on the D.L., you can certainly make the case for using him at this discounted price at home versus the Astros. While the top of the Astros order remains dangerous, the bottom of the line-up with Chirinos/Marisnick/White is loaded with K’s and could make Boyd a nice leverage GPP option in tournaments.
Summary: The thought of playing Robbie Ray SP1 chalk is always terrifying, but the match-up here is one that is hard to over-look. While there are certainly risks with going Ray/Berrios, there is also substantial upside with both arms and the pricing for tonight’s offenses is soft enough that getting both top tier arms seems like the path of least resistance.
In GPP’s, I think pivoting down to Boyd, especially if the Astros become popular, becomes an excellent leverage play in large field tournaments as a way to get different on a small(er) slate like this.
MLB DFS – Building our Bats:
While we have some strong arms to build around here tonight, there are also some really dicey bargain arms we can pick on and although there is no one team with a IRT over 5, that doesn’t mean we have to dig too deep for offenses to stack.
The Philadelphia Phillies are the offense that I plan to go heavy on tonight as they get a home match-up with the Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta, perhaps the most boom/bust arm on the slate.
Peralta is an odd case in that he has electric K ability has shown by his 11 K, 8 inning shutout to start the year against the Reds with recent glimpses in 5 innings against the Nationals as the “closer” in the Brewers last game.
The issue is that in between those flashes, he has shown he can get absolutely blown up with 19 runs (16 earned) with 6 HR’s allowed in the 3 starts prior to his strong outing against Washington. The reality is, this is what happens when you have the limited repertoire that Peralta has – a two pitch pitcher who relies on his fastball nearly 75% of the time.
Any time you are relying THAT much on a fastball, at 90-92 MPH, against Major League hitters, you have some serious blow up risk, and this Phillies line-up is not only loaded with power, but they are also cheap enough where a full on stack fits easily around two top arms tonight.
Against that fastball velocity, 6 of the 8 projected hitters in the Phillies line-up tonight have .200_ ISO marks with Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Odubel Herrera, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins all sporting .300+ ISO marks against that pitch type/velocity versus RHP since the start of 2016.
Peralta on the year, a fly ball pitcher (44%) has given up a 46% HC rate to hitters and in Citizen’s Bank Park, this could end up as batting practice for the Phillies bats and I think within the context of this slate, a full on 6 man stack is in play for GPP’s.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is not meant to be a plug and play build and should only be used as an illustrative example.
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SP: Robbie Ray
SP: Jose Berrios
IF: Jean Segura
IF: JT Realmuto
IF: Odubel Herrera
OF: Bryce Harper
OF: Rhys Hoskins
OF: Andrew McCutchen
UTIL: Travis Shaw ($5K)
UTIL: $6.9K one-off
Slate Overview: I mentioned this over the weekend but I know with it being Mother’s Day, many of you took the weekend off from MLB DFS, so I thought it was worth repeating here today.
On FantasyDraft, I have noticed more and more that the pattern of paying up for two studs around a 6 man stack is hitting in GPP’s as a result of using the “Free Square” value that comes up each day. Today, we have Travis Shaw ($5K) at an insanely low price, albeit against Aaron Nola, but that price tag alone could pay off with a few hits and it opens up the salary to go all-in on a high power stack alongside two top-tier arms.
Enjoy tonight’s slate all – we will see you back her on Tuesday!
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