MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, 5/13 – Believe in Bieber

MLB DFS Pitching: Monday, 5/13

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

We have only 6 games on the main slate tonight so with only 12 pitchers to choose from we are going to have to choose carefully! I usually narrow it down to four arms and one we can pick on as our “gas can of the night.” I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end, don’t worry!

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Freddy Peralta vs. Aaron Nola

Brad Peacock (-160) vs. Matthew Boyd

Tyler Skaggs vs. Jose Berrios (-150)

Shane Bieber (-160) vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Nick Kingham vs. Robbie Ray (-165)

Mike Fiers vs. Yusei Kikuchi (-130)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Lock

Shane Bieber (9.5k FD, 9k DK) @ Chicago White Sox

Despite not being a true staff ace, Bieber is the safest options for our cash games tonight and I expect him to be popular. He’s pitched really well thus far in his sophomore campaign and has everything we are looking for from a cash game pitcher.

He’s a road favorite against a Chicago team that whiffs 26% of the time against righties this year and has a solid 25% K rate of his own, striking out 48 hitters in 43 innings so far this season. He also has excellent control, something he’s been known for going back to his time in the minors. He simply doesn’t beat himself of put himself in bad situations by issuing free passes.

He’s started 7 games and earned a quality start in 6 of them. That kind of reliability makes him a great choice for cash games.

In his last start, he allowed three runs on eight hits while striking out six against this same Chicago team – which was his lowest fantasy output of the season other than his start against Atlanta. He has the kind of floor we want in cash and certainly still has a ceiling, too, since he’s struck out 9 batters twice this year.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Matt Boyd (9.8k FD, 8.8k DK) vs. Houston

Boyd is my favorite tournament option for a few reasons. I’ll just start with the fact that I think he’s the best pitcher on this entire slate and his fantasy production would point to that conclusion as well.

He’s the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but he’s third over on DraftKings and a full 1200 less than Robbie Ray (a guy I rarely use and who simply hasn’t been as good as Boyd this year.)

The matchup is going to scare some people away, and that’s probably warranted. Houston is a really good offense that happens to be firing on all cylinders right now. They’re putting up some big run totals and there just aren’t many easy outs in that lineup. The Astros send 7 right-handers to the plate most nights against lefties so Boyd will have his work cut out for him.

This is a case where I want to get a guy who’s pitching at an elite level at really low ownership on a slate where one pitcher could outscore all the others by a significant margin and win you a tournament.

If you’ve read this column before you know that I’ve used Mike Minor in this same spot before at 1% ownership and that I will always give a pitcher I really believe in a shot even against a good offense. Fire up Boyd tonight, he’s surely going to be low owned and I think he can get it done at home against the ‘Stros.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2

Brad Peacock (8.5k both sites) @ Detroit

Peacock is the other pitcher in this game and is likely going to be a lot more popular than Boyd based on how often DFS players like to target the Detroit lineup with right-handed pitchers.  It certainly doesn’t hurt that he is coming off his best outing of the season last week against KC in which he struck out 12 Royals over 7 scoreless innings.

I expect him to be pretty popular tonight, but I don’t trust him in cash games. He’s been very inconsistent this season since being converted back to a starter. He hasn’t pitched that deep into many games this year, so while he carries excellent strikeout potential, he also isn’t a lock for a QS or even a win tonight since he’s facing Detroit’s ace Boyd on the other side of this matchup.

I really like Peacock in this spot. He has an excellent K rate and swinging strike rate and is tough on righties so the numbers all match up well. I’ll have some shares and so should you, just understand that he should carry a decent amount of ownership considering the lack of other quality mid-tier options.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Yusei Kikuchi (7.9k FD, 7.5k DK) vs. Oakland

The Japanese rookie Kikuchi is finally showing some signs of being the pitcher that Seattle thought they were getting when they signed him this off-season. He’s not a typical rookie in that he’s 27 years old and has been pitching Japan for a number of years before coming over to the states, but he certainly had an adjustment period early on as he was largely average through his first six starts.

But after his rest week (every five starts Seattle plans to throw him one inning and then let him rest another full rotation), he’s been excellent. In his last two starts against quality opponents (Cleveland and New York), he’s allowed only 6 hits, 2 walks, and 2 earned runs while striking out 13 over 14.2 innings.  His elite control and run prevention lately grabbed my attention.

The match-up isn’t all that favorable against the A’s as they will load up on righties and don’t whiff that much, but at his price, I’m willing to see if he’s up for the challenge.

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night

Mike Fiers @ Seattle

So Mike Fiers tossed a no-hitter in his last start against the Reds, meaning he’s probably not an actual gas can. But it certainly doesn’t mean I have to believe that he’s a good pitcher either. He actually has two no-nos in his career now, which is impressive when you consider he’s been a largely average pitcher for most of it.

This year his ERA and xFIP are both over 5. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher who gives up 40% hard contact. Nothing in his profile suggests he’s likely to continue to pitch well, yet he got a major price hike on both sites and recency bias will prevent some DFS players from attacking him.

That’s all the more reason to stack up the Seattle bats in my opinion. Seattle’s offense is potent, with power and speed from both sides of the plate. They hit Fiers hard in the opening series of the season in Japan and I expect them to do it again tonight. Stack up the Mariners against Fiers tonight, you won’t be sorry!

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Bieber and Boyd, while my favorite GPP pairing is probably Boyd and Kikuchi. Tonight definitely feels like a night to spend up on arms.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Bieber
2. Peacock
3. Boyd

GPP Rankings

1. Boyd
2. Kikuchi
3. Peacock

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!