1. Boston Red Sox
At the moment, no Red Sox starter has an ERA of less than 3.75. That 3.75-man, David Price, also happens to be on the Injured List at the moment. It’s clear that Boston has a profound need to add an ace to their questionable rotation.
Bumgarner is almost certainly going to be the top arm available. That means the Red Sox are going to be involved with the Giants until his future is finally resolved. Boston may not ultimately win out, but the odds do seem to be in their favor.
In particular, the questions surrounding the health and ability of Chris Sale to pitch at a high level heighten the organization’s need to add a high-level starter. Adding Bumgarner won’t fix Alex Cora’s rotation all by itself, but it would serve as a significant step in the right direction for the Red Sox.
Boston’s need combined with their ability to meet the Giants’ asking price makes them the slight favorites in this season’s race to deal for Bumgarner. They’re not an overwhelming favorite to get a deal done, but they are the most likely suitor from his no-trade clause list to successfully make a deal that will satisfy both the Giants and their talented southpaw.