2019 PGA Championship: DraftKings DFS Picks
2019 PGA Championship: DraftKings DFS Picks – Welcome back Fantasy Golfers for the second major!
With the PGA Tour’s schedule adjustments, the PGA Championship is now being played in May, as opposed to August. This tournament had always been the fourth and final major of the PGA season in previous years. Being moved up makes it difficult to compare the form of golfers who had success here since it is being played three months earlier than we are used to.
Bethpage Black is the host of the 2019 PGA Championship. The course is a Par 70 that plays over 7,400 yards. Length is going to be critical here, but lots of mistakes can be made, as well.
The course features fairways that are difficult to hit, so one key stat I will be looking at is Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Since players will be finding themselves hitting from the rough if their tee shots miss the fairway, Proximity from the Rough is another stat to consider.
Once a player finds himself on the green, its smooth sailing (for the most part) from there. The greens are fast, but mostly flat as well. Bunkers are in play on a majority of the holes surrounding the greens, That being said, Sand Save Percentage should be considered when looking at stats. Finally, Strokes Gained: Approach the Green is the last stat I will be factoring in. Approach shots will be key this week as there are so many of these bunkers that need to be avoided.
Off to the left of my spreadsheet, I have posted the previous four events that Bethpage Black has played host two. It’s most recent tournaments came in the FedEx Cup playoffs for the Baraclays, which was a Par 71.
2019 PGA Championship: DraftKings DFS Picks
The top of the board on DraftKings for this week’s PGA Championship is made up of just four players priced above $10,000 following the WD from Justin Thomas ($10,100). These four players are also the top four clear favorites in the betting market as well.
Tiger Woods, the 2019 Masters champion, leads the way at $11,300. It is rare that we see him priced over $11,000, let alone being the most expensive. He is going to carry some ownership, but may be faded by most of the public due to his $11,300 price tag.
In terms of current form, and course history, the pick does make sense. It really just comes down to if you’re willing to pay up for him and leave yourself with less than $7,800 remaining for your remaining five roster spots.
Dustin Johnson ($11,100)
Just below Tiger is DJ, who makes the most sense if you are looking to pay up for a top-end player. He had a pair of top-20 finishes at The Barclays in both 2016 (T18), and 2012 (T3). DJ obviously has the distance for this course, but also rates out in some of the other stats that were mentioned in the first slide. He ranks inside the fields top-10 in terms of Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and Sand Save Percentage.
Rounding out the $10,000+ range is Rory McIlroy ($10,900), and Brooks Koepka ($10,400). Outside of DJ, Rory is the only other player to consider up in this range. He is top five in both SG: Tee to Green, and SG: Approach in this field.
2019 PGA Championship: DraftKings DFS Picks
As you could expect, there is not much of a drop off when it comes to the $9,000 range. In comparison to The Masters, we have 156 players in the field for the PGA Championship. With the way the pricing shapes up moving further down, this $9,000 range might be the spot to start your team.
Since Justin Thomas has pulled out, Justin Rose now becomes the fifth highest priced player at $9,900. Right below him is Francesco Molinari ($9,700) who I was on at The Masters, but will be fully fading this week.
Rickie Fowler ($9,300)
Putting all stats aside, I think Rickie Fowler is a fantastic value in this lower $9k range. Sure, I might be one who is still chasing Fowler’s first major victory, but I sure don’t want to miss out when it happens. He is playing much better golf as of late heading into with week with back to back top-10 finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship, and The Masters.
Fowler is tied for the fifth best odds on MyBookie at 20-1 and is priced on DraftKings as the eighth most expensive golfer. He also has some course history here at Bethpage Black, where he had a pair of top-25 finishes at both Barclays (T7/T24). Starting with Fowler leaves you with an average of just over $8,100 per roster spot with lots of wiggle room.
Alternate Option: Xander Schauffele ($9,100) inside the fields top-25 in SG: Tee to Green, Sand Save Percentage, and SG: Approach. Leads the PGA Tour in Approaches from the Rough 150-175 yards out, which is an area many golfers will find themselves in this week at the PGA Championship.
2019 PGA Championship: DraftKings DFS Picks
Leading the way in the $8,000 range is Bryson DeChambeau at $8,900. This is just the second time in 2019 that DeChambeau has been priced under $9,000 on DraftKings (other being $8,700 at Sentry). He has not been playing his best golf as of late, with no top-10 finishes in his last six PGA Tour events.
In this range, I think the ownership lies with Phil Mickelson, and Bubba Watson who are both priced at $8,000. They both appear when digging into course history, and are very affordable at a flat $8,000.
Adam Scott ($8,100)
One player who could get overlooked in this range, is Adam Scott. In his most recent attempt here at Bethpage Black, Scott turned in a T4 finish at the 2016 Barclays. He also played in both US Opens here at Bethpage Black where he missed the cut in 2002, then came back improving to T36 in 2009. He has fared well in big tournaments this year with top-20 finishes in both THE PLAYERS, and The Masters.
Scott does show up on the key stats, where he ranks 18th in the field in Sand Save percentage, and 32nd in SG: Approach the Green. This is a nice pivot spot as there will be a lot of ownership being thrown around in this $8,000 range.
Alternate Option: Patrick Cantlay ($8,200) is another nice value down in this range. He is inside the top-10 when looking at SG: Tee to Green, and top-30 in SG: Approach.
2019 PGA Championship: DraftKings DFS Picks
A range that features over 40 golfers can be a tall task to evaluate. At the very top of this range, the ownership will lie heavily onto Sergio Garcia ($7,900). Though he let many down at last month’s Masters, Garcia followed that up with a top-5 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship.
This is another situation where people will take a look at course history, and see Garcia’s name pop up inside the top-10 on three different occasions. This is a great value in cash games, but expect a very high ownership when it comes to tournaments.
Marc Leishman ($7,800)
After withdrawing from last weeks AT&T Byron Nelson prior to the first round with a back injury, many will be hesitant to hop back onto Leishman. Though there is some risk involved, he is listed in the field for the PGA Championship. Leishman may have just backed out as a precaution to ensure 100% health to tee up this week.
Leishman rates out very well when looking at Proximity from the Rough, where he is currently 10th on tour. He is first on tour in Rough Proximity form 175-200 yards, and third in Rough Proximity from 150-175 yards. These are two ranges I have narrowed it down to being a longer course. On top of all that, he is inside the fields top-15 in SG: Approach, as well. He should not carry a whole lot of ownership, making for a nice play on DraftKings in GPPS/tournaments.
Alternate Options: Ian Poulter ($7,600), Ryan Moore ($7,400), Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,300), Keegan Bradley ($7,200), and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,100).
2019 PGA Championship: DraftKings DFS Picks
With such a large field, we are still able to find some nice value plays priced below $7,000. We find a lot of players who play a majority of their golf on the European Tour These are players in which the casual golf fan may have never heard of. Lets get to the picks:
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Joost Luiten ($6,800)
Here is one European Tour player that occasionally plays on the PGA Tour. Luiten is currently the world’s 69th ranked player. He moved up a spot this past week with his T8 finish at the Brittish Masters. Luiten is currently ranked second on the European Tour in SG: Tee to Green. He made the cut at the Valero Texas Open last month, and also churned out a top-10 at the WGC Mexico.
Russell Knox ($6,700)
My absolute favorite play from this range is Russell Knox. He ranks inside the top-45 on tour in each of the four key stat categories. Knox is inside of the fields top-20 in both Rough Proximity, and Strokes Gained: Approach. He started off the year with three top-20 finishes in his first five events, but hasn’t had a finish as such since. Lock the Knox at $6,700 in all of your lineups.
Alternate Plays: Jorge Campillo ($6,900), J.B. Holmes ($6,600), Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($6,500), David Lipsky ($6,500) and Julian Suri ($6,400).
Leaker of the Week: Marty Jertson ($6,000)
With plenty of candidates for the PGA Championship’s Leaker of the Week, I decided to go with Marty Jertson. With so many PGA Club Professionals, it was hard to decide on one, but Marty seemed like the safest bet. He has never made a cut on the PGA Tour, as he is 0/7 dating back to 2010. Marty also had a missed cut on the Web.com Tour in 2002.
Best of luck, Marty!