MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 14th – Duff Man – OH YEAH!
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s MLB DFS slate was a wild one as only two arms managed to eclipse 20 fantasy points, while two top-tier arms in Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios, combined could not even score TWO fantasy points. The night was dominated by offense as Khris Davis, Eduardo Escobar and Yoan Moncado all went for 30+ fantasy points with Moncada and Davis each hammering two home runs on the night!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Picks:
When you open up today’s slate you are going to notice very quickly that this slate is loaded – loaded with pitching, loaded with batters and you are going to need to make a choice about where you spend and where you save.
We have elite K arms like Chris Sale, Chris Paddack, Caleb Smith and Noah Syndergaard all taking the mound and you can make a strong case for any and all of them today, but I also think the mid-range and value presents some interesting GPP appeal if we are willing to dig a bit deeper.
Danny Duffy ($15.8K) becomes an interesting boom/bust case in Kansas City against the Rangers in a game with a 10 IRT that will likely keep the masses off the arms in this game, but I think there is a strong case to be made for Duffy in GPP’s.
Since the start of 2018, Duffy has exhibited pretty traditional splits with right-handed batters giving him the most trouble while having significant success against LHB, holding them to only a .100 ISO with a 21.4% K rate and a walk rate of 5% which is more than half the mark against RHB.
Today, against the Rangers and a projected line-up with 5 LHB in it and a 25% K rate against LHP since 2018, this gives Duffy the splits advantage that some may overlook. So far in 2019, the Rangers strike out at a 28.4% rate versus LHP which is third highest in all of baseball.
Need proof this can work? Wade Miley was the last LHP to face Texas and he struck out 7 over 6 innings on his way to 25 fantasy points. Now the issue with Duffy and the risk is always walks – and the Rangers even with their high K rate, also have a 11% walk rate against LHP this season which is a top 5 mark in the league. However after two strong starts where Duffy has generated 12.5% swinging strikes, with just under a 50% GB rate and 11 K’s to only 4 walks – there is some serious upside we can jump on here for a bargain price.
MLB DFS – A Punt Play Sp2:
Remember when the season started and Pirates RHP Joe Musgrove ($12.8K) was putting up dominant outings start after start – in fact over a 5 game stretch in April, he averaged just under 23 fantasy points per game with a 23% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate and had seen his price rise to $18K in his last start in that stretch where he sent 6 innings, striking out 5 and allowing only 1 run against the Dodgers in LA.
After two brutal starts where Musgrove has given up 13 runs and put up -7 and -9 fantasy points, his price now puts him near the bottom of the player pool today in Chase Field where the roof is projected to be open.
However if you dig deep into those games you see a few metrics that stand out as potential outliers – first, the walk rate of 18% – when you consider that Musgrove has a 5% walk rate since the start of 2018, it is possible this was just a set of bad starts where he struggled with his control. Secondly, is a bit of bad luck – as shown by a .444 BABIP, which is a far cry from the .258 mark he had in his 5 game stretch in April.
Now the Arizona line-up has some strong bats up top, but the projected line-up has 4 right-handed batters and 5 if you include opposing SP Luke Weaver and that is important as Musgrove has a .071 ISO and 21% K rate against RHB in 2019. Musgrove will have Lance Barksdale behind the plate, a strong pitcher’s umpire who calls 11% more strikes so this could be a spot where Musgrove is able to bounce back at a massive discount.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
One of the reasons I wanted to give you some cheaper pitching options here tonight is that we have bats – LOTS of bats – and high-end ones that we will likely want some exposure to here this evening. We have three teams on the Main Slate with 5+ IRT’s – the Houston Astros, Boston red Sox and Kansas City Royals – and that is where the salary we saved at pitcher will look to be spent.
The Astros line-up is just on fire right now, leading the league over the last week with 52 runs, 19 HR and 51 RBI and today they will face Tigers LHP Ryan Carpenter, who has a 5+ xFIP with a 13% K rate since the start of 2018 while surrendering .300+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate.
The Houston IRT opened at 5.6 and Vegas bettors were like nah bro, that ain’t enough – as it has spike to 6.2 runs as I type this at 6AM EST. George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Michael Brantley are arguably the best 1-4 stack on the board and you can use value plays like Tyler White to help offset some of the cost. The Astros are the top stack on the board today and one of the reasons, we want to pay down for pitching.
Now on FantasyDraft you have a choice – you can stack the Astros and be able to pay up for one top tier arm – OR you can pay down for both arms and pair the Astros stack with the equally hot Red Sox who will take on LHP Kyle Freeland in Fenway Park.
Freeland has given up a .227 ISO mark to RHP so far in 2019 and with Mookie Betts and JD Martinez sitting in the heart of this Red Sox line-up, you have the ability to roll out two top-tier bats with .270+ ISO marks against LHP since the start of 2018.
There is nothing sneaky about the Astros and Red Sox today – they have two of the top IRT’s according to Vegas – but my guess is that most will opt to stack one of the either and use some salary on a top-tier arm, so by paying down for two SP’s today you have the ability to run a combined stack that could absolutely take down a GPP.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please Note: This sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plug and play build.
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SP: Danny Duffy
SP: Joe Musgrove
IF: Tyler White
IF: Alex Bregman
IF: Carlos Correa
OF: George Springer
OF: Michael Brantley
OF: Mookie Betts
UTIL: JD Martinez
UTIL: Travis Shaw ($4.9K) wow.
Slate Overview: From a GPP perspective, I love slates like this where you have so many potential paths and roster builds as a result of high-end bats and high-end arms which will force folks to choose.
While I certainly like the top tier arms, I think I like the big bats more and there are some interesting value arms like Duffy/Musgrove that open up the path to roster any and all of them today.
By the way – Travis Shaw at $4.9K is criminal – I will continue to use the free square here every single day. Good luck all!
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