MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 5/14 – Happy Belated Caleb Smith Day!

MLB DFS Pitching: Tuesday, 5/14

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

We have a 12-game main slate tonight on both sites that locks at 7:05. I will only cover the pitchers in the games starting at 7:05 or later. I am going to narrow it down to five arms and one we can pick on as our “gas can of the night.” I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end, don’t worry!

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Noah Syndergaard (-145) vs. Jeremy Hellickson

Brandon Woodruff (-101) vs. Jerad Eickhoff

Kyle Freeland vs. Chris Sale (-270)

Wade Miley (-170) vs. Ryan Carpenter

Charlie Morton (-125) vs. Caleb Smith

Jack Flaherty (-112) vs. Mike Foltynewicz

Felix Pena vs. Kyle Gibson (-130)

Shelby Miller vs. Danny Duffy (-133)

Joe Musgrove vs. Luke Weaver (-145) 

Trent Thornton vs. Nick Vincent (opener) (-105)

Brett Anderson (-101) vs. Mike Leake 

Chris Paddack vs. Clayton Kershaw (-160)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Chris Sale (11.4k FD, 10.8k DK) vs. Colorado

After a rough start to the season, it appears the ace pitcher has found his groove once again. He’s been improving each time out and has looked like his old dominant self lately, striking out 24 over his last 14 frames in wins against Baltimore and Chicago.

Sale is the heaviest favorite on the board at -270 and gets to face this Rockies team tonight outside of Coors where they much easier to pick on.  They do have power righties in their lineup with Story, Arenado, Desmond, and Reynolds that can mash a hanging slider, but they also own a 24% K rate and other than Mark Reynolds, (who spent a lot of time in the American League earlier in his career) most of these hitters have not faced Sale in their careers. I usually give the pitcher the advantage in that situation.

There are a lot of great pitching options tonight, but starting your cash lineups with Sale makes the most sense. His current form paired with the matchup here against Colorado make him a great play and I would expect him to carry significant ownership in cash games.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Caleb Smith (10.7k FD, 9.5k DK) vs. Tampa Bay

I’ve been chomping at the bit since Sunday to play my dude Caleb Smith again. He was scheduled to pitch Sunday against the Mets and got rained out and then the Marlins were off yesterday. Today he will now face Tampa at home in a battle of Florida and holy crap is FanDuel testing my Caleb Smith fandom with that price!

While he’s the second-highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel, he’s the sixth-highest-priced on DraftKings making him a much easier play over there. I’ll play him on both sites, hopefully at low ownership on this slate with so many arms to choose from.

You probably know by now but I’ve been driving the Smith hype train all season long. I am a Smith-truther to the core. This kid has pitched so well every time out and there are no stats that point to any major regression coming, I think his success is absolutely for real and sustainable. Tampa is a tough team to pick on as I respect their bats, but picking on them with a high strikeout left-handed pitcher has worked before (Robbie Ray just got them for 11 Ks in 5 innings last week).

Smith is my #1 GPP pitcher tonight and I’ll be well over the field on him in tournaments. Fire him up with confidence even in this perceived difficult matchup!

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2

Luke Weaver (9.4k FD, 8.8k DK) vs. Pittsburgh

While I faded Robbie Ray last night against my Bucs (he was okay, not great), I have a ton of interest in the Diamondbacks best pitcher this season (yes, I said it! Zach Greinke come at me!), Luke Weaver. Weaver has really broken out this year for the Snakes and many people in baseball, myself included, had left him for dead after he fizzled out with the Cardinals.

These numbers are really impressive, however, as Weaver has compiled 50 strikeouts in 45 innings, a sub 3 ERA, a WHIP of only 1.07, and a 27% K rate through his first 8 starts. He already pitched well against the Bucs back in Pittsburgh on April 23, striking out 7 in 6.1 innings in win and with the way he’s throwing now I think he’s capable of doing it again.

Weaver’s 11% swinging strike suggests the strikeouts are sustainable. And better yet, he’s relying more on his cutter to get groundballs and less on his curveball and changeup. More groundballs and easy outs are allowing him to pitch deeper into games and not rack up huge pitch counts. I am a believer in his success this season and I want to roll him out tonight in a good spot at home against Pittsburgh.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Brandon Woodruff (7.9k FD, 8.6k DK) @ Philadelphia

My favorite cheap pitcher (well kind of cheap on DK) is the hard-throwing youngster from Milwaukee, Brandon Woodruff. After a rough start to his 2019 campaign, Woodruff has bounced back in a big way. In his last three starts, he’s 2-0 with 22 strikeouts over his last 16 innings. He’s allowed only one earned run in each of those three most recent starts.

Tonight he will see the Phillies, a solid offense, but one that will toss out 6-7 right-handed hitters. Woodruff has been significantly better against righties this year and his 29% K rate is something I want to target against these Philly bats that are swinging and missing 23% of the time against RHP.

It’s a tough matchup on the road for Woodruff, but I love his upside at this price. He’s well worth the risk in GPPs and he has already shown he has GPP-winning potential this season. Perhaps his 52 FD point outing last time out against Washington will attract some ownership tonight, but with 24 pitchers on the slate, I think we should see ownership spread out quite a bit.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Danny Duffy (7.6k FD, 7.7k DK) vs. Texas

Feels like I’m reaching here a bit, but I really wanted to give you at least one guy under 8k who I think is worth a shot and after digging into his profile I think I can get on board with some Danny Duffy tonight at this price against the Rangers.

Duffy has now made three starts this season since recovering from an injury and pitched respectably in each and piling up two quality starts in his most recent outings. He’s no longer a power pitcher as his fastball is sitting around 91-92, but he’s also throwing it less often this year and mixing in more sliders, curves, sinkers, and changeups. At 30 years old, Duffy has battled a number of arm injuries throughout his career and at this point he’s probably realized he’s going to have to locate his pitches, pitch to contact more often, and rely on secondary pitches in order to get swings and misses.

The matchup here is appealing to me, as the Rangers are a team that is we want to target against RHP, but usually one that I will fade against LHP. Outside of Hunter Pence (who’s having quite the renaissance this season), the Rangers don’t have any righties that scare me, most of their power is from the left side of the plate. And their strikeout rate of 25% is hopefully something that Duffy can capitalize on. Walks are an issue for Duffy at times, but if his control is on tonight, then I think he can navigate this Texas lineup for 6 innings and grab a win as his offense should light up the gas can on the hill for the Rangers. Speaking of which…

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night

Shelby Miller vs. Kansas City

Welcome back, Shelby! As a three-time GCOTN winner, you are entitled to one free bag of peanuts because they are the only thing that gets shelled more often than you! (6 AM attempt at humor)

Miller is actually coming off a respectable outing against the Pirates in which he only allowed two runs on four hits over four innings, but he continues to be a guy that I want to pick on every time out. His overall numbers this season are pathetic with a walk rate (15%) that’s higher than his K rate (13%) and a whopping 6.91 xFIP.

He’s been bad against lefties and righties, both. His fly ball rates and hard contact rates are both alarming high and his WHIP of 1.96 shows that he puts guys on base all the time. That’s a recipe for disaster, especially against a good group of young hitters that the Royals have in their lineup. The KC bats have speed at the top and power in the middle of their lineup and they will be one of my favorite stacks tonight, especially when you consider the Texas bullpen has been pretty bad this season, too.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Sale-Woodruff, while my favorite GPP pairing is probably Smith-Weaver.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Chris Sale
2. Charlie Morton
3. Luke Weaver
4. Brandon Woodruff

GPP Rankings

1. Caleb Smith
2. Luke Weaver
3. Brandon Woodruff
4. Danny Duffy

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!