MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 15th – Ex-Hess Yourself!

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was a high-scoring one led by Chris Sale who put up 40+ fantasy points on the back of 17 K’s – yes, 17 K’s. Picks and Pivots had a strong foundation built around bargain arm Joe Musgrove who finished the night as the second highest scoring pitcher on the slate, which allowed us to spend up for the pricey Astros stack which once again went off for 11 runs against the Detroit Tigers.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:

Wednesday kicks off with a four game early slate that will begin at 3:05 PM EST with the Yankees/Orioles and based off some serious rain risk in San Francisco, this could end up becoming a three game slate with the Giants/Blue Jays having to deal with rain in the Bay Area.

To me, there are three very clear arms to sort through on this slate and they are all at the top – Zack Greinke, J.A. Happ and Chris Archer. This trio should dominate the ownership on this small slate and while all are in decent spots, for GPP’s I think you can make the case to play the ownership game here today.

The first thing I noticed was price – Grienke ($19.4K) and Happ ($18.9K) are pricey investments and if forced to choose, I would roll with Greinke as my cash game SP1 but in GPP’s, I think we can make the case to fade them both.

First, for Greinke – his 26% K rate on the season is solid but the Pirates are not a high strikeout team against RHP, ranking 24th in baseball with a 21% K rate in 2019 and rolling out a projected line-up today with a sub 20% K rate, with all of their top 4 arms sporting 19% or lower K rates against RHP this year.

Happ has the match-up everyone will salivate over against the Orioles but are you really going to pay this kind of salary for a pitcher with a 18% K rate who has faced the Orioles twice this season and put up 14.95 fantasy points COMBINED in those two starts?

All things considered, if you ask me to choose, I think I will take the price discount on Chris Archer ($15.9K) here who is making his first start off the IL after a thumb injury. Now, the easy argument against Archer is that he only threw a 60 pitch simulated game before being activated and there is a pitch count risk here – but honestly, isn’t that already factored into the price?

Archer put up 20+ fantasy points in three of his first five outings before two rough starts that put him on the IL and while there is risk here, there is no question on a short slate that Archer has the upside to match and exceed anything that Happ/Greinke put up for a fraction of the price.

Now if you are fading Happ/Greinke and the game in San Francisco gets rained out, the options become limited but I think in GPP’s there is a nice leverage spot here with David Hess ($9.4K). Yes, I am aware Hess is a relatively awful pitcher and yes I see the Yankees with a IRT near 6 runs here – so will everyone else and jump all over a chalk Yankee stack but hold on one second.

While the Yankees are getting healthier – this is by no means the usual Yankee line-up and with today being a double-header we could see an even more watered down line-up. Take a look at the last two weeks – 9 of the 10 starting pitchers in that time frame against New York have gone for double-digit fantasy points, while allowing 3 or fewer runs in every outing and in fact, have given up 1 run or fewer in 5 of those outings.

So the appeal here is really two-fold – first, if the Yankees are chalk because of the high Vegas total, than this serves as a low owned leverage spot that pitchers have been routinely able to “survive” in the last two weeks. Secondly, if we can get 10-15 fantasy points here from Hess and without any arms I consider must haves, we will have the salary to spend up for elite bats that those who jam in Happ/Greinke and Yankees chalk, simply won’t have the luxury of affording.

Who is ready for David Hess today? Come on – let’s get weird.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Bats:

If you are reading the tea leaves here – I am approaching this slate under the assumption that the Giants/Jays is not playable and am looking to take a stand by fading the Yankees chalk JV lineup. While I may not be looking to force in Greinke and Happ, I also do not necessarily want bats against them (with the exception of a Josh Bell one-off) – so you are starting to limit your player pool pretty quickly.

That leads me to Great American Ballpark and Sonny Gray versus Yu Darvish.

Darvish is a name at this point and nothing else – this is a pitcher with a 5+ xFIP since the start of last season and one who has a major league leading 19.3% walk rate in 2019 – 6% higher than any other arm with at least 30 innings of work this season.

With that being said, we get an elite hitting park in Cincinnati and a Reds line-up that has some serious pop for some bargain prices. Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker sit in the heart of this order with .276 and .296 ISO marks against RHP this season with both bats having a 45% or higher HC rate. Joey Votto is super cheap in the #2 hole and makes for a nice stacking piece but I also recognize he will likely just walk 2-3 times against Darvis.

On the other side of this game, Sonny Gray will have to navigate the Cubs power heavy line-up and when you look at the pricing of the Cubs here today, I think we are looking at a stack that will go completely over-looked.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez all cost over $10K on this slate – three of the four most expensive bats on the slate – and with a mediocre 4.5 IRT, I think roster construction on thie slate will dictate that these prices become too high for folks. With the ownership concentrated on Greinke/Happ and with the Yankees stack being far cheaper – this becomes a potential low-owned GPP stack that talent wise is arguably the top line-up on the board.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build. 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Chris Archer

SP: David Hess

IF: Josh Bell

IF: Anthony Rizzo

IF: Javier Baez

OF: Kris Bryant

OF: Yasiel Puig

OF: Jesse Winker

UTIL: Eugenio Suarez

UTIL: Kyle Schwarber

Slate Overview: Due to the lack of pitching options on this four (potentially three) game slate, the ownership is going to be so highly concentrated on Greinke/Happ at the top that will also mean roster builds will largely look and feel the same.

By paying up for two solid, but over-priced arms, you will not be able to afford to stack the four most expensive bats on the slate – the three Cubs and Josh Bell – but it also requires you to take on some risk and roll out David Hess against a Yankees team with a slate high 5.7 IRT.

All you are asking for in this scenario is for Hes to survive – get you 10-15 fantasy points and hope your bats carry the day. If Hess gets whacked around early and Grieinke/Happ are rolling – well then you are dead in the water but if the chalk busts, you have massive leverage that could push you well past the rest of the field.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Breakdown:

I am going to keep this main slate simple – I want two things and two things only:

1. Justin Verlander
2. 6 Houston Astros Bats

Oh really you say? You want the best arm on the slate against the Tigers line-up and the red-hot Astros line-up against LHP Gregory Soto who will make the jump from AA after his first Major League start resulted in 9 hits and 7 runs against the Twins in 4 innings of work.

This is a do not get cute spot for me – the Astros are steamrolling pitchers right now and with a minor league arm and one of the worst bullpens in the bigs to follow – I am jamming in 6 Astros because that is the most FantasyDraft will allow. George Springer, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa at the top with the mid-range value of guys like Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White. Rinse and repeat.

The easiest path to this build would be to find a value SP2 but frankly, I am not sure that exists so I am looking at LHP Eduardo Rodriguez ($16.3K) at home against the Rockies as the lowest SP2 I feel comfortable going with today. E-Rod is a big home favorite and the Rockies ave a sub 4 IRT, as a team that struggles on the road and has three hitters in their projected line-up (Reynolds, Tapia and Valaika) with 40% + K rates against LHP this season!

Now, paying up for Verlander and E-Rod with a 6 man Astros stack is going to mean getting value – serious value – but that exists on this slate in a build I have been promoting for the last week now as it has been one that has been successful in GPP’s.

Starlin Castro ($4.9K) and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($4.5k) are essentially stone minimum hitters – allowing you to take two punt one-offs which gives you the path to the build you want – paying up for two top arms and 6 man stacking the best offense in baseball.

JBJ has put up 9 and 11 fantasy points in his last two games while Castro has at least one hit in each of his last 5 games – so take the #FreeSquares here and simply move on to the buid you really want.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.  

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Justin Verlander

SP: Eduardo Rodriguez

IF: Carlos Correa

IF: Alex Bregman

IF: Yuli Gurriel

OF: George Springer

OF: Jake Marisnick

OF: Jackie Bradley Jr.

UTIL: Robinson Chirnos

UTIL: Starlin Castro

Slate Overview: These two slates today are kind of polar opposites in how I am approaching them. On the four game early slate I am looking to play ownership/leverage more so than anything else while on the Main Slate, I recognize the “chalk” is where I want to be overweight on and intend to go all-in with Astros.

I love these split slate days mid-week and I think they set up perfectly for GPP play – enjoy them and also make sure you check out our PGA DFS coverage as we break down Thursday’s PGA Championship slates.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR each and every day for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.