MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 16 – Thursday Bauer Hour
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday’s MLB DFS action was a tale of two slates where riding with and against the chalk showed how variance can drive the standings. On the Early Slate, the chalk pairing of Zack Greinke and the Yankee bats ended up being a spot you had to eat where Greinke was the top scoring arm and near 60% owned GPP plays like Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez were at the top of the leaderboard.
The Main Slate was all about the Astros from an ownership perspective as guys like Springer, Guriel and Correa were all over 50% owned and combined for only 8 fantasy points between them. In both cases, the Yankees and Astros were the “right” plays but it served as a great reminder of why people will eat/fade the chalk and how different the outcomes can be.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
The four game early slate on FantasyDraft kicks off at 1PM EST with all four games starting within 10 minutes of eachother and with no weather issues to speak of, we should be all clear to play this one straight up.
While we have some solid arms on this slate, we also have warm weather in every single ballpark and each of the 8 offenses on this slate have 4 or higher IRT’s – so tread carefully.
With there being “risk” in every arm – I am always going to side with K upside as my sticking point when selecting arms and the only two top-tier K arms on this slate are Zack Wheeler ($19.3K) and Chris Bassitt ($17K).
Let’s start with Bassitt – who I assume will be the chalkiest arm on the slate, less because of his 31% K rate in 2019 and more so because his opponent, the Detroit Tigers is the weakest line-up to pick on of all the teams in early action. Bassitt has been phenomenal to start the year with 3 of his first 4 starts going for 25 or more fantasy points and his splits this year have shown a pitcher with a 32% K rate against RHB with a 50% plus GB rate – which sets up perfectly against a right-handed heavy Tigers line-up.
Wheeler is a bit trickier as you are being asked to pay the market price after putting up double-digit K’s in three of his last four outings but will face a Nationals opponent he has struggled against in 2019 with 14 and -6 fantasy points against them his first two go rounds.
It all comes back to K’s with Wheeler though as this is an arm who has a 27% K rate on the season, 32.3% over his 4 recent starts with a 13.2% swinging strike rate – and with a Nationals line-up that continues to trot out guys like Gerrardo Parra, Wilmer Difo and Brian Dozier – there is upside here with Wheeler you simply do not get with any other arm.
The fact that Wheeler and Bassitt, both road arms, are also the two biggest favorites on this slate at -125, tells you everything you need to know about the options we have early today!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
With 80+ degree temperatures and 14 MPH winds blowing out in Kansas City, combined with the fact Lance Lynn and Homer Bailey are on the mound, my guess is folks will flock to the 10+ game total for the Rangers and Royals and load up on bats in that game.
While I certainly understand the logic, I think there are simply too many other good offenses on this slate to eat the chalk bats and since my feeling is Wheeler/Bassitt are the chalk arms, I want to find ways to differentiate with my bats. So while Texas and KC will get most of the attention with 5+ IRTS, the Mets (4.9), Phillies (4.7), A’s (4.6) and Brewers (4.4) are not far behind!
The Mets will take on Anibal Sanchez, a pitcher who this season is giving up a .343 ISO mark and 2.81 HR/9 rate to LHB and today he will have at least four lefties in the lineup with Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil up top with value bats like Robinson Cano and Brandon Nimmo offering upside and salary relief.
Speaking of lefties – the Brewers take on RHP Zach Eflin, who has always had traditional splits – with a near 40% HC rate and .203 ISO to LHB since the start of 2018. The Brewers not only have the lefties – Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal and Eric Thames – but you are getting them in Citizens Bank Park with 70 degree temperatures. There is just massive power potential in this Brew Crew stack today as all four of these bats have .250+ ISO marks against RHP since the starts of 2018.
Lastly, we get a slate of day games after night games – this is where you simply have to carve out time to look at the lineups and find the value – it will be there on slates like this as guys get unexpected days off so take advantage. Last night was a great example of this as the Rays started Anthony Bemboom at $3.9K who ended up with double-digit fantasy points and his salary allowed you to get basically stack the Astros with Verlander as your ace arm without any issue. Watch for that kind of value today and use them as a one-off wich will give you a path to paying up for Wheeler/Bassitt while also paying up for bats.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build:
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SP: Zack Wheeler
SP: Chris Bassitt
IF: Martin Maldonado
IF: Yasmani Grandal
IF: Mike Moustakas
OF: Christian Yelich
OF: Eric Thames
OF: Michael Conforto
UTIL: Jeff McNeil
UTIL: Robinson Cano
Slate Overview: Looking at this four game early slate, I simply see no reason to move off the only two high K arms on this slate in Wheeler/Bassitt – K’s are king in DFS and with runs expected across every time, “hoping” for a run prevention outing today will likely not cut it, so we need punch outs to offset any scoring our arms give up.
Offense is where you have the ability to go really any place you want – if the Royals and Rangers are chalk as I expect they will be, then just pivot – sure the Rangers have the highest IRT but are you really going to tell me you will pay $10.3K for Hunter Pence when I can get Christian Yelich for $200 cheaper in Citizens Bank Park?
Again, watch the lineups today – make sure you have time set aside before lock to find the value because if you can get that one “punt” on a day slate, it will open up a path to the bats/arms on the high end.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Arms:
Before we get into the picks – this is important – the Main Slate tonight kicks off at 6:10 PM EST – so make sure you adjust accordingly and don’t get caught thinking we have a normal 7PM EST lock to adjust our lineups.
Let’s keep it simple – you want to play Trevor Bauer ($21.2K) here – in fact, I would argue you need to. Bauer is a -300 favorite against the K heavy Orioles and brings a slate high 30.6% K rate to the table since the start of 2018. Bauer has gone for 20+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 starts and has double-digit K’s in three of his last five outings – this is the spot you are paying up for and I simply will eat the chalk.
For SP2, I want to try and save salary here to get big bats, which leads me to Eric Lauer ($13.7K) who is pitching at home in San Diego against the Pirates. Lauer is coming off an 8 run beat down in Coors Field where he logged -13 fantasy points but prior to that outlier he had secured double-digit fantasy points in all but one outing this Pirates team presents the perfect bounce back spot.
The Pirates are not a high K team we normally target but that is against RHP – against lefties, the story is completely different as they strike out at a 28.2% clip which is 5th highest in all of baseball. The Pirates have faced 10 left handed starting pitchers this season – and every single one has put up at least 15 fantasy points, with 6 of the 10 going for 20+ fantasy points.
The Pirates have the lowest IRT (3.7) of any team not names Baltimore today and Lauer is a strong home favorite which makes him a great cash game play with the GPP appeal that he allows you to get Bauer AND high-powered bats.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:
As much as Trevor Bauer is a priority today so too are the bats, specifically the Indians and Braves who have 5+ IRT’s facing off against Dan Straily and Adam Wainwright.
Straily is giving up a .300+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate this season with extreme fly ball rates nearing 50% and in Cleveland today where it will be 75 degrees with 10 MPH winds blowing out to RF – he could be in some serious trouble. Jose Ramirez and Fancisco Lindor are really the only “pricey” bats in Cleveland with the rest of the stack being quite affordable – so stacking up Cargo, Bauers, Kipnis etc around Ramirez/Lindor becomes a cost-effective path to a near 6 implied run total.
Now, the Indians have struggled in 2019 to hit RHP with no hitter on the team sporting more than a .200 ISO, but this is a spot where I think you need to look at their resumes and just going back to 2018, this is a line-up that had 4 of their top 6 hitters with .200+ ISO marks against RHP.
Straily is the worst pitcher on this slate and behind him is an equally bad Orioles bullpen that we can attack – with the pricing on the Indians, you can get a 5 man stack alongside Bauer without having to make many sacrifices at all.
There are a few one-off plays that stood out to me as well today we can build around the Indians.
First – Freddie Freeman ($9K) at home against Adam Wainwright, a pitcher who is giving up a .307 ISo and 49.2% HC rate to LHB in 2019 and will travel to a ballpark in Atlanta that is tailored to left-handed power, specifically the Braves face of the franchise in Freddie – this a spot where I think you can play the one-off power of Freeman who feels like a lock to crush one out.
Eugenio Suarez (8.7K) in Great American Smallpark against a lefty – yes please. Suarez has a .419 ISO and 58% HC rate against lefties this year and now you put him at home where it is warm – this feels too cheap for the Reds lefty masher and I plan on making him and Freeman, core plays today.
Lastly – Kyle Schwarber ($5.9K) who will hit 4/5 today with Anthony Rizzo banged up and while the opponent in Luis Castillo is a tough one, are they serious with this price? As good as Castillo is, he still gives up a ton of HC to lefties (41% since 2018) and Schwarber has a .234 ISO against RHP since last year. This is a spot where Schwarber is one of the cheapest bats on the entire slate but talent wise, he has the upside to simply crush here and he opens up the salary for you to really go in any direction with your builds.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build:
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
SP: Trevor Bauer
SP: Eric Lauer
IF: Freddie Freeman
IF: Eugenio Suarez
IF: Francisco Lindor
OF: Jose Ramirez
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Jake Bauers
UTIL: Jason Kipnis
UTIL: Kyle Schwarber
Slate Overview: The Main Slate looks pretty fun tonight with some elite pitching and a ton of offenses you can make the argument for which gives you some great GPP stacking possibilities.
As I always do with Picks and Pivots, my goal is to try and show roster paths and it is interesting to me that you can get Bauer with the Indians stack and their 6 IRT, really – way too easily. This likely makes it chalky but as we saw yesterday on the early slate with the Yankees – the chalk will hit and if you don’t have them, you are cooked. Or could they be like the Astros last night and bust at 50%+ ownership, leaving those who faded well ahead of the field.
So is MLB DFS my friends – enjoy this one!
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