MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 17 – deGOAT versus the WOAT
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Thursday’s MLB DFS slate was simply, all about offense. The Early Slate saw winning scores push well over 250 on a four game slate as a result of three teams going for double-digit runs, with the Brewers (11), Rangers (16) and A’s (17) all going off. The Main Slate was much of the same as the Indians (14), Mariners (11) and Braves (10) all put up massive numbers while the “ace” of the slate in Trevor Bauer put up negative points – welcome to warm weather MLB DFS folks!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Friday Pitching Picks:
We got 15 games, clear and warm weather in essentially every game and a loaded MLB DFS slate to break down here tonight with multiple aces and a handful of offenses with 5+ IRT’s that Vegas is pointing out early on.
Jacob deGrom ($22.1K) is the headline arm on this slate, the largest favorite -210, which is something considering he is on the road but it all makes sense when you consider this is against the Miami Marlins. The last time the reigning Cy Young award winner pitched in Miami was on April 3, where he went 7 shutout innings, striking out 14 on his way to 45 fantasy points – which is good, #analysis.
We have the best pitcher in baseball versus the worst offense in baseball – it really is that simple. deGrom has a 33% K rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate which puts him in the top 5 in baseball this season and what is amazing about his numbers is that he actually struggled early on this season and had elbow issues which caused him to head to the IL. If this is a “struggling” deGrom, just imagine what it will look like when he regains his form – actually we do not have to imagine, just go back to his first start against Miami this year.
Now listen, Trevor Bauer was in a “SMASH SPOT” (yes I hate that term) on yesterday’s slate and Baltimore knocked him around so there is variance and all that yada-yada, but this is a do not get cute spot in my opinion with Jake and he will be the anchor to all my rosters today.
Max Scherzer ($21.4K) becomes the logical SP1 pivot for GPP’s but my guess is, most will find a way to get the extra $700 to get deGrom versus the Marlins instead of picking on the Cubs who will likely have Anthony Rizzo back in the line-up. All that likely means, Mad Max becomes a low owned GPP option on a slate of this size and that makes me really interested in double-barrel aces on this FantasyDraft slate.
From a metrics perspective, the 32.2% K rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate that Mad Max has, is every bit what deGrom is sporting this season and this match-up against the Cubs is one that Scherzer dominated in 2018.
In two starts versus the Cubs, Scherzer struck out 11 batters each time and put up 35 FPPG, so while this Cubs team does have some serious pop and name value, they also have 4 hitters with 25% plus K rates against RHP and a pitcher in the #9 spot which gives Max some added K equity here.
If you cannot get all the way up to Max as your SP2, the easy pivot is a far too cheap Joey Lucchesi ($16.1K) against the Pirates in San Diego. Lucchesi is a solid K arm, pitching in a massive pitcher’s park against a Pirates line-up that strikes out at a top 5 rate in all of baseball this season versus LHP AND with CB Bucknor, a massive pitcher’s umpire, calling balls and strikes – Lucchesi seems like an easy SP2 choice here tonight. My only issue with the padres left-hander here tonight is the pitch count as the Padres have routinely babied the southpaw, allowing him to go over 90 pitches only twice in eight games and last game in particular he was pulled after only 71 pitches despite only giving up 1 ER in 5+ innings against the Rockies in Coors Field.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
Since the start of 2018, no pitcher in baseball has given up more home runs than Orioles RHP Dylan Bundy, who has surrendered 52 long balls in that time and what amazes me about that is no other pitcher in baseball is within 10 HR’s of that mark!
Now take that context and add on the fact that no bullpen in baseball has given up more HR’s this season than the same Orioles team (37), which is 6 more than the Tigers bullpen that just finished getting pummeled by the Astros, and well my friends you have a powder keg DFS situation for the Cleveland Indians lineup today.
The Indians are fresh off a 14 run beat-down of the Orioles last night, a game in which opposing starter Dan Straily gave up 4 ER’s in 3 innings before turning it over to the pen for another 10 runs and this becomes a situation where I think we go right back to the well with a full on Indians stack.
The beauty of this stack – the pricing – oh baby the pricing. Sure Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are pricey in the $8-9K range but look at the rest of the top 6 in this line-up – Carlos Santana ($7.2K), Jason Kipnis ($6.7K), Jake Bauers ($6.9K) and Carlos Gonzalez ($6.3K).
You know how I mentioned the possibility of going double-barrel aces tonight with deGrom and Mad Max? Well my friends, this is the stack that gives you that path.
We have 6 offenses on this slate tonight with IRT’s between 5.1-5.3 as of this writing with the Indians being one of them, so I am not sure any offense will stand out as Vegas chalk, but the fact we can stack up an offense with a 5+ run total against a home run starter/pen like Bundy/O’s and have the ability to get the two best arms potentially in all of baseball – this is a plant your flag spot in my opinion.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play line-up.
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SP: Jacob deGrom
SP: Max Scherzer
IF: Francisco Lindor
IF: Jason Kipnis
IF: Carlos Santana
OF: Jose Ramirez
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Jacob Bauers
UTIL: Daniel Robertson ($5.8K)
UTIL: Niko Goodrum ($5.6K)
Slate Overview: As I go to write the slate overview, I am laughing to myself at what to write here because it feels like the simplest write-up ever that frankly, needs nearly no statistical backing.
Would you like to play the two best pitchers in baseball on the same team while also stacking up an offense that just scored 14 runs last night and gets the worst home run starter/bullpen combo in baseball tonight? Of course you do – and guess what – it all works within the salary cap.
The last two spots on your roster will require value but the guys I highlighted here are just two options I noticed at first glance. Robertson will be batting in middle of the Rays order versus LHP CC Sabathia and Goodrum will be leading off against right-hander Frankie Montas so you get two punts with the splits on their side in prime line-up positions.
Sure it is baseball – anything can happen – maybe deGrom and Scherzer both put up Trevor Bauer like performances tonight and for the millionth time this year we get reminded that we should not always pay up for pitching. However, there is a path here that feels simple, one that I am going to force myself not to over think and simply let others get cute.
Enjoy the slate – Happy Friday everyone – now, let’s go deGrominate.
Next. MLB DFS Pitching Primer - Friday, May 17. dark
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