MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday, 5/17 – Frankie Friday!

MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, 5/17

Welcome back to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

After a few days of split slates, it’s nice to get back to a full 15-game evening slate that we can spend all day researching and gearing up for tonight!

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

I am going to narrow it down the field of 30 pitchers to my favorite five arms and one we can pick on as our “gas can of the night.” I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end like always, don’t worry!

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Ryne Stanek (opener) vs. C.C Sabathia

Cole Hamels vs. Max Scherzer (-150)

Jon Gray vs. Cole Irvin (-130)

Gerrit Cole (-140) vs. Rick Porcello

Dylan Bundy vs. Jefry Rodriguez (-180)

Frankie Montas (-150) vs. Daniel Norris 

Rich Hill (-135) vs. Anthony DeScalfani

Jacob Degrom (-265) vs. Trevor Richards

Jhoulys Chacin vs. Max Fried (-140)

Miles Mikolas vs. Jose DeClerc (opener) 

Aaron Sanchez (-105) vs. Ivan Nova

Jeff Samardzija vs. Merrill Kelly (-130)

Brad Keller vs. Matt Harvey (-145) 

Martin Perez (-125) vs. Marco Gonzales

Jordan Lyles vs. Joey Luchessi (-150)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Jacob Degrom (12k FD, 11.4k DK) @ Miami

DeGrom is an easy pick for your cash games tomorrow and likely a chalky pick for cash games across the industry. He has returned to his early season form with three straight solid outings and has the best matchup of any of the top end pitchers on this slate by a wide margin.

Picking on the Marlins doesn’t always work, but it does MOST of the time and DeGrom has already shown he can dominate this Miami lineup. In 14 innings this season, he’s allowed one earned run against them while striking out 22 Fish.

DeGrom is a huge -265 favorite even on the road and has a positive park factor working for him in Miami. His excellent groundball rate is the final thing that sets him apart from other aces like Cole and Scherzer who are flyball pitchers who are more vulnerable to the long ball. 12k is a lot to pay for your pitcher on FanDuel, but I’d make every effort to find some value bats and shoehorn DeGrom into this lineups tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Frankie Montas (8.8k both sites) @ Detroit

I’m jumping all the way down into the 8k range for my next group of pitchers. Tough matchups for Scherzer, Cole, Perez, and Hamels are keeping me off them at their prices.

This price might seem steep for Montas, but if you really step back and look at what he’s done this season, he’s probably priced pretty appropriately, especially when you consider the favorable matchup he draws here against the Tigers.

Montas throws a hard mid 90’s sinker and pairs it with a mid 80’s slider.  His stat profile looks a lot like that of a young Marcus Stroman. He is getting over 50% groundballs while striking out almost a batter an inning. He’s been excellent against righties and his sinker runs in on their hands and slider breaks down and away. He really seems to be coming into his own and pitching with confidence right now.

The Tigers are going to have 7-8 right-handed bats in their lineup and have some of the worst offensive numbers of any team in baseball. I don’t like picking on them as often as I do a team like the Marlins, but they are going to have a tough time against Montas tonight. It’s tempting to drop down to him on FanDuel for cash to get more bats in there and possibly even use him as your SP2 with DeGrom, but I’d wait to see what value opens up when lineups get posted first.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2

Jon Gray (8.2k FD, 8.5k DK) @ Philadelphia

Hey, I think it’s a Jon Gray day ‘cuz the Rox are away! Sorry, I have a bad habit of bursting into freestyle rap while typing up DFS articles. Maybe I missed my true calling?

In all seriousness, I’m puzzled as to why Gray is priced so cheap tonight and I’m ready to pounce on him in tournaments. Anytime we get him out of Coors, you have to consider him if the matchup is favorable and in this case, I believe it is.

The Phillies will only have 3 lefties in the lineup and are striking out quite a bit this year (especially Bryce Harper). Meanwhile, Gray has some excellent strikeout numbers and really good splits against righties. He throws hard and has a plus slider that compliments his mid 90’s fastball. His 24% HR/FB ratio is crazy high and likely to regress over the course of the season and also is a byproduct of pitching at Coors and facing some tough offenses so far this season (Braves, Dodgers, and Brewers have all hit him).

I love his upside at this price and I’m not afraid of the Phillies lineup. He’s one of my favorite GPP options on the slate.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Jordan Lyles (8.5k FD, 8.1k DK) @ San Diego

Lyles is not exciting, not even in the slightest bit. I’d be lying if I said I thought he was anything more than an above average pitcher. However, he has resurrected his career in Pittsburgh and is putting together a solid 2019 campaign.

Lyles has a solid 2.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP but a FIP of 3.46 that suggests he won’t be that good all season. But there are some positive indicators that also show that we should have some confidence in using him in the right spots, like against a right-handed heavy Padres team that struggles against righties.

Lyles has been MUCH better against righties this season, holding them to a .203 wOBA compared to a .338 wOBA to lefties. He’s also throwing his curveball more than ever before in his career (30%) and relying less on his fastball and slider to get weak contact. I don’t see him striking out more than 6-8 Pads, but I do think the chances of 6-7 solid innings is well within the range of outcomes and I’ll be using him a good bit tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms/SP

Cole Irvin (7k DK) vs. Colorado

This is the cheapest that I am willing to go on DraftKings tomorrow for an SP2 and I still have some concerns about using the rookie Irvin against the Rockies. Let’s start with the good first, though. The left-hander had a great debut against Kansas City in which pitched seven effective innings and allowed only one run on five hits with five strikeouts. It was a great first outing by all accounts and he’s got to feel good about his stuff going into tonight’s game after having that success.

I like to pick on the Rockies outside of Coors, and with lefties, if I can. We saw them strike out 27 times in their last two games against Sale and E-Rod (not comparing Irvin to either by the way) and they clearly struggle against LHP. Irvin does not have the strikeout stuff that those pitchers do. His minor league numbers show that he will probably struggle to strikeout 20% of the hitters he faces in the majors and anytime you have someone who gives up that much contact you have to be a bit nervous. Use him in some tourneys if you need the cap, but be warned that his stats are probably a little inflated after that first start and he may not be that good tonight in his second one.

Joey Luchessi (6.2k FD) vs. Pittsburgh

Wow, did FD not get the memo on Joey being a decent pitcher and the Bucs struggling vs. lefties or did DK just over price him for this matchup. Luchessi is 8.2k on DK and there’s no way I’ll play him there instead of Lyles or Gray. However, he’s one of the cheapest pitchers on the slate on FanDuel and I think he’s worth a shot there if you want to load up on two expensive stacks. He’s had mixed results this year and never pitches that deep into the game, but is still striking out a batter per inning and this matchup is a positive one for him with Pittsburgh having a bad K rate to lefties.

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can(s) of the Night

Jose Leclerc and Adrian Sampson vs. St. Louis

The Rangers are tossing out not just one gas can, but two! I will be all over the Cardinals stacks tonight as they should tee off on this poor Texas pitching staff in one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball.

Leclerc is the opener (similar to what Tampa has been doing, and now the Angels have tried it, too) and should pitch 1-2 innings. He’s been terrible this season with a massive walk rate and hard contact rate. He won’t last long before giving way to another BAD pitcher in Adrian Sampson, who is the projected long man. Sampson has FIP and xFIP over 5, doesn’t strike anyone out and is a troubling fly ball rate.

He’s also had reverse splits this year and last year, which plays right into the Cardinals strength as the majority of their lineup is right-handed and they have power in the heart of that lineup. The rest of the bullpen for Texas is pretty bad, too so I will be targeting St. Louis as my top stack of the night in the hopes that they make quick work of Leclerc and Sampson and feast on the rest of the Rangers relievers.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be DeGrom-Montas (if I can fit the bats), while my favorite GPP pairing is probably Gray-Lyles.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. DeGrom
2. Montas
3. Lyles

GPP Rankings

1. Gray
2. Montas
3. Irvin (DK)
4. Luchessi (FD)

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!