MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, 5/20 – Attack the Mets!
By Dan Palyo
MLB DFS Pitching: Monday, 5/20
Welcome back to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.
Tonight we have an 8-game main slate on both sites that starts at 7:05. There is one early game and one of these 6:10 games that are only going to be available on an “all-day” slate. I’ll focus on the main slate and I’m going to be picky tonight since we have only 16 pitchers from which to choose. I’m also going to be introducing a new segment to the primer today, the “Troll of the Night.” I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end like always, don’t worry!
"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."
Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.
J.A. Happ (-160) vs. Andrew Cashner
Patrick Corbin vs. Wilmer Font/Drew Gagnon
Mike Leake vs. Mike Minor (-140)
Ross Detweiler vs. Brad Peacock
Luke Weaver vs. Chris Paddack (-145)
This slate is loaded at the top with some solid options and then it thins out pretty quickly. We have a number of teams possibly using openers or long relievers and we have a few guys possibly making their season debuts with their respective teams. It all adds up to quite an interesting slate for pitching!
MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace
Patrick Corbin (10.8k FD, 10.9k DK) @ New York Mets
There are some excellent options at the top of the salary scale tonight, and while I know that saving salary cap where you can is always important, I still want to spend up for Corbin in cash.
It’s really a matter of his floor in this spot, which I project around 40 FD points or 20 DK points. Corbin’s become an elite strikeout pitcher with the best K rate and a swinging strike rate of any arm on the slate. He’s also got a track record of being this dominant while some of these other young arms are doing it for the first time.
The Mets offense has been woeful lately. They are battling some injuries and have been rolling out some bad lineups. Yesterday the Marlins 4th starter, Sandy Alcantara, pitched a complete game two-hitter against them! Two days ago there were blanked for one hit over 7 innings by…Pablo Lopez. That’s not a knock on Sandy or Pablo, both solid young pitchers, but just goes to prove that the Mets are struggling badly at the dish.
Now factor in Corbin’s dominance of the Mets this season, as he’s faced them already three times. In those three starts, he’s pitched 20 innings and piled up 24 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.70 and WHIP of 1.10. His best performance of the three was just last week when he struck out 11 Mets over 8 innings and allowed only one run. Corbin is an easy cash play for me tonight, even as salary is starting to creep up there.
MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1
Luke Weaver (9.6k FD, 8.5k DK) @ San Diego
The matchup is really what has me on Weaver over the other young arms that you could pay up for tonight. The Padres are slumping badly against right-handed pitchers. I watched their entire series this weekend with my beloved Pirates and outside of Franmil Reyes (who is one hell of a physical specimen and power hitter), they simply don’t have anyone who should strike fear into the hearts of RHP (and yes, I do know they have Manny Machado).
The Pads scored a total of 5 runs off Pirates righties Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, and Jordan Lyles over the weekend. And while I love my battling Buccos, I’ll be the first to admit that none of those guys have the talent of Luke Weaver.
Weaver has been excellent this season for the Snakes. After a shaky opener against the Dodgers, he’s allowed three runs or less over his last eight starts, six of which have been quality starts. He’s faced San Diego already once this season and the results were good as he went 6.1 innings and struck out 8 while allowing only two runs on five hits.
The price on DraftKings is almost insulting and I think he makes for a great SP2 in cash as he’s actually cheaper over there than one of the other pitchers I’m going to get to in my “cheap arms” section. This feels like a safe spot and a high floor/ceiling situation for the young D-Backs hurler.
MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2
Mike Soroka (10k FD, 9.2k DK) @ San Francisco
I guess when you’re 4-1 with an ERA under 1, the sites are going to price you up pretty quickly but holy mackerel seeing Soroka at 10k on FanDuel is still a shock. I think we have to consider him tonight, however, as the combination of his form and the solid matchup against the Giants puts him firmly in play for tournaments.
The DK price is pretty fair, considering that Soroka has been over 20 DK points in four of his six starts. This kid is a very talented young pitcher but he’s not going to be this good all season. His xFIP is 3.95 and he walks too many guys (14 BB in 36 innings). And he’s not a strikeout pitcher, he really profiles as more of a groundball guy.
However, having said all that I still think he could go out and dominate this Giants lineup. San Fran has been one of the weakest offenses in the NL all season long and with only a few lefties with decent power (Belt/Sandoval), Soroka should be able to get the rest of the righties to pound the ball into the ground for easy outs (56% GB rate). I’m not paying 10k for him on FanDuel, but then again if no one is willing to pay that price, that will also make him lower owned – just some food for thought.
MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #3
Mike Minor (8.8k FD, 9.7k DK) vs. Seattle
You guys know I couldn’t do it…I couldn’t leave my dude Mike Minor out of the primer today. The DK algorithm must love him because he’s the second most expensive play after Corbin over there. That should mean he will be super low owned again tonight, in the same spot that he pitched his game of the season last time.
The FanDuel price is more palatable as he’s cheaper than all three of the others guy I’ve mentioned so far, and I certainly don’t mind taking a shot on him on either site. Minor is enjoying a breakout in his age-30 season and while many are waiting for regression, I think he can keep it up (and I’ve already hitched my wagon to him, so I’m going to ride it out).
He’s at home in the warm Texas weather and facing a Seattle team that has some great right-handed hitters, but both of those things are only going to keep his ownership down again. He’s only pitched five innings in each of his last two starts so recency bias is working in our favor as far ownership goes, too. He’s definitely not my favorite pitcher on the slate, but don’t be surprised if he pitches another gem tonight. He’s got the stuff to do it.
MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2
Brad Peacock (7.8k DK, 8.9k DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
Peacock is just way too cheap on FanDuel tonight for this matchup with the White Sox. DK priced in the matchup at least, forcing you to consider your SP2 option carefully and as I mentioned earlier, Luke Waver is actually cheaper on DK tonight.
Peacock is a volatile pitcher, which makes him a GPP only play for me. He pitched out of relief all last season and goes deep into pitch counts, which means he’s not usually a guy to go more than six innings. In fact, he’s only done that one time this season. However, he also has the strikeout potential to get 8-10 strikeouts in only 6 innings against this Chi-Sox team that whiffs 25% of the time at this plate.
I really like him a lot tonight in this spot. He seems to be underpriced on FanDuel so I’ll grab most of my shares there, while he’s appropriately priced on DK. He makes for a great GPP option on both sites.
MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can(s) of the Night
Andrew Suarez vs. Atlanta Braves
Ross Detwiler vs. Houston Astros
I couldn’t pick just one gas can today and so I got two left-handers I am going to pick on tonight as both of them are going to be overmatched by excellent offenses.
Let’s start with Suarez, who is making his 2019 debut for the Giants tonight against the Braves. Suarez started 29 games last year for the Giants and was perfectly mediocre. He doesn’t strike out many guys and relied on ground balls to get outs. This year at AAA, he’s been considerably worse than last year and he happens to have to face one of the best offenses against lefties over the last two years – this formidable Braves lineup.
Detwiler is a guy who hasn’t really been relevant in MLB since all the way back in 2013-2014 when he was coming up with the Nationals. He made 13 starts for Washington in 2013 and then pitched exclusively out the bullpen the following year. Since then he’s bounced around between 5 different teams and back and forth between AAA and the majors. He’s struggling to get hitters out at both AAA and the big leagues these days and tonight he’ll face off against a series of lefty-mashing bats in this Houston Astros lineup. Good luck, Ross, you’re going to need it!
MLB DFS Pitching: Troll of the Night
Andrew Cashner vs. New York Yankees
Cashner has been trolling DFS players for several years now as his overall numbers always look terrible, making a matchup for an opposing offense look juicy. You roster this team and then tilt all night because they are only able to scratch out 3-4 runs against him and they don’t make tournament value. It’s been a pattern I’ve observed (and been on the wrong end of several times) over the last few years.
If there’s one team that Cashner loves to bring his best performance against it’s the Yankees. He’s 2-5 against them in 9 career starts with only a 3.90 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 55 innings. Those numbers don’t make you want to use him (please don’t roster Cashner…like ever) but it also should also go to show that stacking against him is probably the wrong move. He’s more likely to pitch decently tonight than he is to throw a gem or get entirely blown up. Just fade the Yankees and Cashner and focus on other pitchers and offenses!
MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review
This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.
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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.
On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Corbin-Weaver while my favorite GPP pairing will probably be Peacock-Weaver.
If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.
Cash Rankings
- Corbin
- Weaver
- Soroka
GPP Rankings
- Weaver
- Peacock
- Minor
dark. Next. MLB DFS Picks and Pivots - Monday, May 20
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