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WNBA Season Preview 2019: Phoenix Mercury are the title favorites

By Brendon Kleen

UNCASVILLE, CT - AUGUST 23: Diana Taurasi #3 of the Phoenix Mercury handles the ball against the Connecticut Sun in Round Two of the 2018 WNBA Playoffs on August 23, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
UNCASVILLE, CT - AUGUST 23: Diana Taurasi #3 of the Phoenix Mercury handles the ball against the Connecticut Sun in Round Two of the 2018 WNBA Playoffs on August 23, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Even with Diana Taurasi expected out until July, the Phoenix Mercury are one of the favorites for the 2019 WNBA championship.

All offseason, those within the Mercury have maintained they were just a few minutes from the 2018 WNBA title. They’re skipping a few steps when they say that.

Even if Phoenix emerged from the semifinal round against the Seattle Storm, who would go on to win it all, the team still would have had to take down a prolific Washington Mystics squad. Nevertheless, this level of confidence shows the Mercury love what they have — and believe they’ll be right back in that spot this season.

Projected rotation

The Mercury are led by their big three of Taurasi, two-time Defensive Player of the Year Brittney Griner and Swiss Army knife DeWanna Bonner. This offseason, they filled out their rotation expertly with smart free agency moves and a huge draft night haul.

Unfortunately, Taurasi’s season will be on a delayed start, as the WNBA legend underwent surgery to repair a disk in her shoulder on April 25 and is expected to return 10-12 weeks from that day, which would land her return date sometime around Phoenix’s home tilt against Atlanta on July 7.

Starters

G – Briann January, Essence Carson (until Taurasi returns)

F – Stephanie Talbot, Bonner

C – Griner

Bench

G – Leilani Mitchell, Yvonne Turner, Sophie Cunningham

F/C – Alanna Smith, Brianna Turner, Camille Little, Sancho Lyttle

Key Questions

Teams aren’t supposed to be able to improve this quickly. Think of this Mercury building process as a three-year process. While Bonner was out to give birth to twins in 2017, the Mercury re-tooled their roster and went younger. Last season, Bonner returned and the younger players were ready to contribute, leading to that run to Game 5 of the semifinals.

This summer, the Mercury should feel great that not only do they have the remnants of that retool, but three rookies in Cunningham, Smith and Turner whom they can trust.

Who makes the roster?

WNBA teams can only carry 12 players, meaning the list above will show one too many names when Taurasi returns. The candidates to be cut (apart from the three other young players competing in camp for Phoenix right now) are Little and Lyttle, two veteran forwards likely not in Phoenix’s future plans. At 34, Little struggled to consistently make an impact last season, while Lyttle at 35 is recovering from an ACL tear suffered last year.

If anyone will benefit, it will be Cunningham, Phoenix’s second-round pick and a fiery sharpshooter who might have had to compete more for a spot in other towns.

How often do the Mercury switch from big to small?

In the past, Phoenix has made insurance behind Griner a priority. A traditional center such as Emma Cannon or Angel Robinson allowed the Mercury to maintain their style of play on defense without adjusting too much.

Last year, with Griner and Lyttle both out at various points with injury, Bonner’s versatility became a huge strength for Phoenix. It seems they adjusted their scheme accordingly and will lean into smaller units when Griner is out of the game. Watch for the rookie and NCAA champion Turner to play a key role in this adjustment.

Will Taurasi’s injury affect her or the team?

Taurasi’s resurgent 2018 was one of the biggest reasons the Mercury were one of the league’s best teams last season. She operated as the primary playmaker for the team but her incredible shooting and playmaking efficiency took the offense up a level with the spacing her teammates provided. It will be tough for her to match a 63.8 true shooting percentage and 32.8 assist percentage even if she is fully healthy upon return.

However, Phoenix will only go so far as Taurasi takes them. Star-laden squads such as the Mystics, Atlanta Dream and even the young Las Vegas Aces will demand the best from the Mercury despite Phoenix’s newfound depth. The second half of this season will be about getting Taurasi acclimated and healthy.

Predictions

Fortunately for Phoenix, the early part of the schedule without Taurasi is not so bad. They can ease her along and be aggressive during the stretch run. To that end (get those drumsticks out and start rolling) our OFFICIAL, 100 percent true prediction is that the Mercury will go … 26-8.

And they will win the 2019 WNBA championship.

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