MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Wednesday, 5/22 – My Favorite Martin

MLB DFS Pitching: Wednesday, 5/22

Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

Tonight we have a 4-game early slate on both sites at 1:10, and another 10-game slate that locks at 7:05.  I’ll have my favorite pitchers for both slates, I got you covered! I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end like always, don’t worry!

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Early Slate (1:10)

Luis Castillo (-110) vs. Zach Davies

Frankie Montas (-110) vs. Jefry Rodriguez

Brad Keller vs. Michael Wacha (-170)

Marco Gonzales (-110) vs. Adrian Sampson

Main Slate (7:05)

Jon Gray (-110) vs. Nick Kingham

C.C. Sabathia (-200) vs. Dan Straily

Rick Porcello (-140) vs. Aaron Sanchez

Rich Hill vs. Ryne Stanek (opener)

Jose Urena vs. Daniel Norris (-120)

Max Scherzer vs. Jacob DeGrom (-110)

Cole Irvin vs. Cole Hamels (-145)

Ivan Nova vs. Gerrit Cole (-330)

Martin Perez (-105) vs. Matt Harvey

Max Fried (-140) vs. Jeff Samardzija

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Play (Early)

Frankie Montas (8.7k FD, 9.5k DK) @ Cleveland

My man Frankie is coming off his best start as a pro in which he nearly went the distance against the Tigers, falling one out short of a complete game while allowing two runs and striking out 10. He’s been solid all season for Oakland, allowing no more than three earned runs in any start.

Cleveland’s offense is improved since the start of the season, but they still don’t scare me all that much. Montas limited them to two runs over six innings when he last faced them May 10th. Frankie does a great job of getting ground ball outs with his sinker and if you haven’t seen him pitch yet, he throws hard, with that fastball topping out around 98-99. His secondary pitches are a hard slider and splitter, which are both improving and nasty pitches to both righties and lefties. Take a look at his splitter here.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1129711868795338752

I’m all about the Montas express today on the early slate! He’s in a safer spot than Luis Castillo and will save you a good chunk of salary if you move down to him in cash games. He’s flashed a great floor and now shown us his ceiling. I love his stuff and I think he’s a lock for me here on the four-gamer.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Play (Early)

Marco Gonzales (6.9k FD, 7.1k DK) @ Texas

So I want you to use a pitcher from a game with a 12-run total and you probably think I’m nuts, right? Gonzales is a guy that I admittedly have a soft spot for in DFS. He’s not a big-time strikeout pitcher, but he is a crafty lefty that knows how to pitch and get guys out. He’s coming off his worst outing of the 2019 season in which he allowed 5 earned runs to the Twins over five innings, but had not surrendered more than three runs in any start this season up until then.

I want to attack Texas with left-handed pitching and this should be a pretty contrarian spot to do it. No one likes taking pitchers in these Texas games, it’s that simple. I rostered Mike Minor and Lance Lynn both at sub 5% ownership on the last two nights, so I guarantee Gonzales will be lightly owned even with only 8 pitchers available on this slate.

We know he can pitch well against this team. His best start this season was a seven shutout inning performance against these Rangers in which he struck out nine. We also might get a funky Texas lineup in a Wednesday afternoon game, so if Gallo or other starters are benched that could also work in his favor. Be greedy when others are fearful…play Marco today and he just might win you a tournament!

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Play (Main)

Gerrit Cole (11.7k FD, 12k DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Wow, those salaries for Cole are astronomical. But then again, many balked at Verlander’s prices yesterday and he pitched a gem (no-hitter into the 7th) against these hapless White Sox. Cole should be an easy play tonight despite his price. He’s a huge -330 favorite (a number we don’t see that often in baseball) and in great form as he’s only allowed one run over his last two starts while striking out 19 batters.

Pitching at home, Cole should cruise through this lineup. His fastball is overpowering guys and he was hitting 99 MPH the other night against Boston in the fifth inning. He has an extra gear he can shift into when he wants a punch out and he’s locating his pitches extremely well this season. Check out this nasty 99 MPH fastball on the outside corner.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1127375543593242624

You simply shouldn’t fade Cole tonight. His floor is high due to the number of strikeouts he will rack up even if he does give up a few runs and his win equity is massive. You don’t want to be without him if he goes for 70+ on FanDuel or 40 DK points either. Just play him already, don’t be cheap!

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1 (Main)

Max Scherzer (11.1k both sites) @ New York Mets

Mad Max faces off against Jacob DeGrom tonight in round two of the matchup between two of the elite right-handed pitchers in baseball. They faced each other on Opening Day this season, with DeGrom coming away with the victory, however, Max matched him in the strikeout department despite giving up two runs.

I’m giving Scherzer the upper hand here today, and it has more to do with the opposing offenses than it does with him.  The Mets offense is the one that I’d rather attack. Without Michael Conforto in that lineup, they don’t have the left-handed power that threatens Max with the long ball. Cano has been slumping most of the year, Nimmo was scratched yesterday, and McNeil is a solid hitter but lacks power. I see Max plowing his way through this lineup tonight on his way to 10+ strikeouts and a win.

DeGrom is coming off his third start of this season in which he’s given up 5 earned runs of more. He also has to face a Nats lineup that is finally healthy and rounding into form. The top of the order for Washington (Turner-Eaton-Rendon-Soto) is significantly better than the Mets best hitters in my opinion, and so again I’m siding with Max over DeGrom in this matchup tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2 (Main)

Rich Hill (8.3k FD, 10.2k) @ Tampa Bay

Hill has the biggest pricing disparity of any of my favorite pitchers tonight. Either FanDuel forgot to price him up after he went for 58 FD points against Cincinnati, or DK went a little overboard in pricing in the elite matchup he has today against Tampa Bay. Either way, I’m interested in Hill tonight in this spot on both sites.

The price on FD might lead to some chalkiness, but I’ll eat it because I love this spot. Hill can be a frustrating pitcher to roster at times, as he doesn’t always work deep into games and he has the potential to get hit hard if he’s not working ahead in counts and relying on his fastball too much. But we can’t ignore the strikeout potential today! The Rays are whiffing against lefties like crazy this season and last night’s performance by Kershaw (8k in 6 innings) is just the most recent example of a good lefty racking up strikeouts.

The combination of Hill’s good form and a positive matchup make him a solid GPP play for me. He should be low owned on DK at this price and contrarian, but I’ll likely have most of my shares on FanDuel.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2 (Main)

Martin Perez (9.4k FD, 8.7k DK) @ L.A Angels

So this isn’t a “cheap” price tag by any means, but with all the elite pitching we have on today’s main slate, I won’t be paying down that often if at all. The simple question today is, “do you believe in two 2019 trends that Thunder Dan is convinced are real.”

1. Martin Perez is good and will continue to be good all season long.
2. We can pick on the Angels with left-handed pitchers all season long.

The first statement is pretty easy for me to defend. Perez is getting better results this year because he’s transformed himself into an entirely different pitcher. He’s throwing with more velocity and using different pitches more often, including this nasty cutter to get a weak half swing in his last start.

The second statement is a little tougher to argue, considering the Angels lineup has improved quite a bit since the first month of the season when they struggled badly. They are getting solid contributions from David Fletcher against lefties and welcomed back Ohtani from his offseason surgery and slotted him right into the 3-hole in this lineup. That means less at bats from some weak hitters and two guys that make a lot of contact.

This isn’t a huge strikeout spot as the Angels don’t whiff much, but I have faith in Perez and his new arsenal of pitches to handle this lineup. Just one piece of advice, Martin. Pitch around Mike Trout!

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Max Fried (9k FD, 8.5 DK) @ San Francisco

Fried makes for a cheaper, and safer SP2 tonight for our cash games. The Atlanta youngster has been excellent this season for the Braves. He’s not a big-time strikeout guy but does get close to a K per inning and his groundball numbers are superb.

The matchup is favorable as he’ll face the Giants on the road. A ground ball pitcher facing a poor-hitting team in a big ballpark that suppresses power – sounds good to me! Fried has been really reliable this year, with only one bad outing in nine starts this season. He has excellent control and won’t hurt himself with free passes. I just don’t see the Giants scratching out too many runs against him tonight, and he’s my favorite cheap arm (on DK mainly since Rich Hill is 700 cheaper on FanDuel) on the slate.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

If you’re playing the early slate, lock in Montas on FanDuel and consider pairing him with Gonzales as your SP2 on DK. If you don’t have faith in Marco then pay up for Castillo or another safer arm.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing for the MAIN SLATE is going to be Cole-Fried while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Perez-Scherzer.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings (Main)

1. Cole
2. Scherzer
3. Perez
4. Fried

GPP Rankings (Main)

1. Scherzer
2. Hill
3. Cole
4. Perez

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck