Is Dallas Keuchel the starter the Yankees need?

The Yankees don’t have to win the race to sign Dallas Keuchel, but they do need to add a starting pitcher before the trade deadline. 

Domingo German has pitched like an All-Star this season for the Yankees, but he can’t be trusted to stay in the rotation all year. That means Brian Cashman needs to add one more starting pitcher if he wants to give manager Aaron Boone what he needs to win a World Series title in 2019.

The issue with German is not a question of talent. It’s a matter of durability. German has never thrown more than 85.2 innings in his major league career. He’s already thrown 60.1 this season. At best, the Yankees can try to stretch the 26-year-old right hander to 150 innings.

It’s no secret the team has very strong interest in free agent lefty Dallas Keuchel. The Yankees were one of a handful of teams that dispatched scouts to watch the former Astros pitcher work during his most recent simulated game. No team is expected to make a formal move for Keuchel until after June 2. That’s the point where a team can sign him without giving up draft compensation.

The question the Yankees need to answer is whether Keuchel is the right addition. He’s certainly the only free agent with any reasonable chance of pitching like anything better than a No. 3 starter. The ability to acquire him without giving up anything in return other than money will certainly be attractive to Cashman.

Keuchel should command a pretty healthy salary, but the Yankees can absorb that with relative ease. He might present some luxury tax challenges for their future, but the franchise won’t let that stand in the way of increasing its odds of winning a 28th World Series title.

Aside from the benefits of him being a free agent, Keuchel’s history of durability gives him an advantage over a lot of potential arms who might hit the trade market. He’s gone over the magical 200 innings mark three times during his career. Even though he won’t be required to hit that mark this season, the ability to rely on him to eat up innings down the stretch would be a huge plus for the Yankees. It could be a massive boost for the team’s chances to feature a fresh bullpen in the postseason.

The biggest potential downside to adding Keuchel is there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to impact the team’s rotation during the playoffs. If Luis Severino gets healthy, he’s a good bet to pick up a playoff start. It would be a major surprise if Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton don’t join him. That leaves a maximum of one extra spot for Keuchel to slide into. There’s limited potential value for the franchise in acquiring any starter who will be relegated to a bullpen role when the postseason arrives.

In a perfect world, the Yankees would sit tight and wait for an ace to shake loose on the trade market. At the moment, it looks like Madison Bumgarner will be the best arm available. However, Bumgarner has put the Yankees on his no-trade list in hopes of getting a long-term deal from them or one of the other teams he has listed.

If it comes down to a choice between signing Keuchel without giving up any young talent or trading prospects for Bumgarner it will be an easy choice for Cashman and company. Keuchel will win that battle with ease.

That’s precisely why the Yankees need to move for Keuchel instead of hoping a better option will materialize. He isn’t the ace the team is dreaming of, but he is the reliable arm the franchise needs. Signing Keuchel is all about mitigating risk for the Yankees heading into the postseason. Signing him is a move Cashman needs to make in order to eliminate the risk of heading into the playoffs one arm short.