DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/27 – The Red Jays
By Jacob Zook
Another week, another DFS MLB Love, Like, Leave article. We had a total of 4 articles over the weekend, with Sunday being an unfortunate low point. Paddack getting sat threw the whole configuration out of wack, and while Odorizzi was fantastic, I still missed cash by a little bit.
There are two playable slates, but with the late slate being only 4 games, I am instead only going to write about the main slate which starts at 1 PM EST. If you would like my thoughts on the late slate, feel free to DM on twitter @ZookDFS and we can build together.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/27
Starting Pitcher
Love
Luis Castillo (9,600): Castillo finally fell back to earth in his last start, but that is literally his only start all season with under 30 FD points. Castillo has simply been lights out this season, and 9,600 seems like a discount for someone who is pitching at Cy Young levels.
Castillo put up 8K’s in 5 and 2/3 innings in his first start of the season against this Pittsburgh team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he eclipses that today.
Like
Aaron Sanchez (7,200): Ay-Ay-Ron Sanchez is the 6th least expensive pitching, with options like Jose Urena, Matt Strahm, and a returning CC Sabathia being more expensive. That doesn’t seem right for someone who has the K upside that Sanchez does. Tampa is a good team, but if you’re looking for salary savings, Sanchez may just have the K upside to give him a solid floor.
Leave
Matt Strahm (8,300): The aforementioned Strahm is likely going to be on a pitch count again, and he faces a lineup in New York that continues to show that it doesn’t need it’s stars. Strahm also doesn’t have the raw strikeout ability to justify a GPP flier, striking out only 41 batters in 50 innings this season.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/27
First Baseman
Love
Joey Votto (2,900): By golly, I think Joey Votto may be found a shadow of his old self. Yesterday marked the third straight game with 2 or more hits, and he gets an absolutely to die for matchup today against Nick Kingham. Kingham has a wild 8.76 ERA this season, with a WHIP that is north of 2. All Reds bats are in play today, and Joey Votto is far too cheap not to roster him.
Like
Justin Smoak (3,500): Chris Paddack getting scratched may have unleashed the beast in Justin Smoak. He now has 4 home runs in the last three games, and while Tampa Bay still hasn’t announced a starter, it will likely not be Snell or Chirinos, who are the only Tampa starters that should worry you with Glasnow hurt. A bullpen game could lead to another monster game from Smoak.
Leave
Josh Bell (4,400): Bell can’t catch a break these last few days, as he runs into a third great pitcher in a row. Bell will eventually catch one of these elite guys or their bullpens, but I don’t think it will be today. I am all in on Castillo, which means I’m not even considering Bell as an option.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/27
Second Baseman
Love
Ian Kinsler (2,700): Kinsler has been a coin with two distinct sides this season, either being horrible, or going on great runs. He has a .944 OPS over his last 9 games, and he gets Sabathia, who is coming off an injury, and may be rusty. Kinsler’s average of .189 leaves much to be desired, but the signs are pointing towards a lot of positive regression in that department.
Like
Cavan Biggio (2,100): Biggio had his coming out game in only his third appearance, going 3 for 4 with a home run. Rookies often go on runs, as their game is predicated much more on confidence and mental stability, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays rewarded their young guys with spots higher up in the roster.
Leave
Nicky Lopez (3,000): Lopez has been hitting out of the leadoff or second spot for most of his time in the majors, but has yet to turn that into any semblance of DFS value. He hasn’t attempted a steal, has one RBI in 11 games, and while it’s smart to expect some positive regression in those arenas, it isn’t worth the dart throw.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/27
Third Baseman
Love
Vlad Guerrero Jr (3,100): Depending on who the Rays throw out on the mound, the Jays may be my favorite stack of the day, as there is value in all parts of their lineup. Vlad continues to crush the ball, even if he hasn’t homered.
He has a BABIP of only .224, suggesting he is going to start collecting hits at an alarming rate. He has run into some unbelievably bad luck this year, as his HC% is off the charts for someone who hasn’t picked up homers at the same rate.
Like
Eugenio Suarez (3,700): There is a distinct possibility my lineup doesn’t contain a bat that isn’t part of the Jays or the Reds, and Suarez is a great bet on the hot corner. He hits for incredible power, and with Nick Senzel and Joey Votto getting on base a lot in front of him, he is getting tons of RBI chances, and knocking his fair share of homers.
Leave
Yoan Moncada (3,800): Moncada has slowed down considerably after going gangbusters to start the year. He hasn’t hit a homer in over 10 games, and I don’t trust in his ability to get on base enough to provide the stats elsewhere. He has still been good, but the strikeouts will start to pile up, and if the power doesn’t come back, I don’t like seeing him priced at around 4k.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/27
Shortstop
Love
Freddy Galvis (2,900): At the time of writing this, Galvis is penciled in as the leadoff hitter tomorrow. If that changes, and he falls to the 6 or 7, I will likely leave him out of my lineup, but at leadoff, he sits directly in front of Vlad and Smoak, who I am pegging for 2 home runs between them. The opportunity is there for Galvis in this scenario, and he will likely fly under the radar tomorrow.
Like
Tim Anderson (3,300): Anderson has missed the last three games with a sore wrist, but there isn’t anything to suggest it is anything more than a minor issue, so I like Anderson, a great power and speed hitting, against Homer Bailey.
Bailey has long been the punching bag of the DFS community, and while I am fading most of the CWS for the reason of chalk that I don’t like all that much, Anderson has been too good this year to ignore.
Leave
Trea Turner (4,000): Turner’s team put up 9 runs yesterday, and he was involved in exactly 0 of them. Something is off with the young shortstop, and until he figures it out, he continues to be a big red flag at 4,000. His matchup against Urena is middling, but it isn’t good enough to suggest we should buck the recent trend.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/27
Outfielders
Juan Soto (4,100): This recent hot streak of Soto is reminding the world of what makes him such an impressive hitter, and at his best, he has one of the highest ceilings out of anybody in the MLB. He is certainly at his best right now, and a lefty on righty matchup at home with this recent form leads me to believe that Soto continues to mash.
Like
Nick Senzel (3,500): Is there anything Nick Senzel can’t do? In his first 100 at bats, he has picked up 3 home runs, 5 steals, and a total of 7 XBH. There is data to suggest that he hasn’t even hit as well as he could, as his K% is likely 5% higher than what he will finish with this year. He is also likely due for some positive regression in the wOBA department, so Senzel is a great pick today.
Leave
Nobody: This early slate may be one of my favorites in a while, as there are so many different ways to build, especially in the outfield. If you followed my advice and went on the cheaper end for much of the infield, you can likely afford just about any outfielder you want. Just zero in on the one you like the most and don’t second guess.
DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave
Sample Lineup
SP: Luis Castillo
C/1B: Joey Votto
2B: Cavan Biggio
3B: Vladdy Jr
SS: Freddy Galvis
OF: Juan Soto
OF: Nick Senzel
OF: Adam Eaton
Util: Justin Smoak
Fantasy Baseball 2019 Season-Long: RP who need to be owned. dark. Next
Today’s sample lineup consists of 4 Blue Jays, and also two mini stacks from the Reds and Nats. There are a lot of ways to go today, and as always, this is just a sample lineup and not one that you should just set and forget.
Always fell free to DM me @ZookDFS on twitter to talk shop about the days slate, or just DFS in general. When i get to 100 followers there, I am going to be starting an interesting competition, so look out for that!