MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 5/28 – Rich Ain’t Over The Hill!

MLB DFS Pitching: Tuesday, 5/28

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

I hope everyone enjoyed their Memorial Day weekend. I always love this holiday as it finally feels like summer has arrived and I will never fade a barbecue or pool party, you need to lock those events into your cash games every time! I hope you all had a chance to spend some time with family and didn’t just stare into your phone waiting for box scores to refresh (I have never done this, by the way).

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

Tonight we have an enormous 15-game slate on FanDuel starting at 6:35 and 13-game slate on DraftKings at 7:05. There are 30 pitchers taking the mound tonight and we have some major price differences from one site to another that are going to make some of my picks site-specific.  I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests and try to give you an idea of how I am going to approach each slate tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: First Look

I usually start by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups and Vegas lines as a way to see where our biggest favorites are, who’s pitching at home or on the road, and which pitchers have a tough opposing pitcher they’re facing.

Here are the matchups for all 15 games, with the home pitcher listed second and the Vegas odds in parentheses. If there is a projected reliever named ahead of time, I list their name and not the openers (as is the case with Yarbrough for Tampa Bay today).

Again, note that the first two games are not on the DraftKings main slate tonight.

Eric Lauer vs. Masahiro Tanaka (-185)

Jordan Lyles vs. Lucas Sims

Matthew Boyd (-120) vs. Dylan Bundy 

Adam Wainwright vs. Nick Pivetta (-130)

Clayton Richard vs. Ryan Yarbrough

Zach Plesac vs. David Price (-220)

Jeff Samardzija (-105) vs. Trevor Richards

Brad Keller vs. Lucas Giolito (-145)

Stephen Strasburg (-110) vs. Max Fried

Zach Davies vs. Martin Perez (-130)

Jon Lester vs. Corbin Martin (-135)

Merrill Kelly vs. Antonio Senzatela (-135)

Nick Tropeano vs. Frankie Montas 

Adrian Sampson vs. Marco Gonzales (-150)

Steven Matz vs. Rich Hill (-210)

Usually, I’m able to pare down my list to 5 pitchers, but with a number of solid options on the board tonight and with some major pricing differences on each site I’ve expanded my picks to 7 pitchers today. Let’s get started with my safest play on both sites, my “cash game ace” taking the hill tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Lucas Giolito (9.4k FD, 9.9k DK)

Giolito has indeed become the ace of the White Sox staff and is enjoying a breakout in his fourth season in the big leagues. He’s now 6-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP after his complete game shutout against the Houston Astros in his last start. He was a heralded prospect in the Nationals farm system for years who has finally learned how to harness his pitches and is showing the massive potential he possesses.

That performance got the attention of many baseball fans but was just the latest in a string of solid outings for Giolito. He has now allowed only two earned runs over his 28 innings and is sporting a pretty impressive 28.5% K rate for the year. He also happens to be the only elite pitching option that is under 10k on both sites, which is why I am making him my #1 pitching pick for cash games.

His opponent, the Royals, are a good offense, but he’s had their number so far this year and gets to face them at home. He limited them to two runs on only three hits way back in March and then on April 17, he had pitched 2.2 innings of no-hit ball against them while striking out 5 before leaving the game early with an injury. I’m riding his hot hand in cash games tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1 (FanDuel)

Frankie Montas (9.2k) vs. L.A. Angels

Draftkings must love Montas as much as I do because he is a staggering 11.3k over there today! On a slate this big and with some expensive bats you’ll want to fit, I simply can’t rationalize paying that price for him despite how much I like him as a pitcher.

On FanDuel, however, I think Montas makes for an interesting play and one that we might get at low ownership. A lot of my favorite pitchers on FanDuel today are clumped up between 8.8k – 9.6k and I’m not sure how comfortable anyone is just yet paying this much for a relatively unproven young pitcher.

But as you know I’m a Montas truther. I really have been impressed with this kid’s stuff this season. He’s really learning how to pitch and not just throw. He was relying on his 98 MPH two-seamer as his main out pitch and the truth is major league hitters can adjust and his that pitch if you can’t keep them off-balance with off speed pitches. Montas slider and splitter have both been effective in changing the eye level of opposing batters and it’s resulting in more strikeouts and a career-high 12% swinging strike rate so far this season.

The Angels are a team that strikes out the least of any in the majors, but they are also a team that I think we can pick on with Montas ability to get groundballs and strikeouts. Frankie gets a nice park upgrade while pitching at home and I like him to keep his stretch of solid performances going tonight against the Halos. Play him on FanDuel, where he has more point-per-dollar upside.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2

Rich Hill (8.8k FD, 10.8k DK) vs. New York Mets

Hill, like Montas, is priced much more affordable on FanDuel tonight as compared to DraftKings. I’m not sure I want to pay over 10k for a pitcher on DK tonight, but more on that later.

Back to Hill, who has now posted two solid outings in a row for the Dodgers. Over his last 12 innings, he’s allowed only 7 hits and one earned run while striking out 17. Tonight he’s a heavy -200 favorite at home against an offensively challenged Mets team.

At 39 years old, he’s showing that he can still get it done with a 28% K rate and a 50% ground ball rate. He doesn’t overpower hitters by throwing all that hard but uses his big curveball to slow down opposing bats and then sneaks a 90 MPH fastball past them when they’re sitting on the curve. He tends not to pitch that deep into games and he can rack up pitch counts quickly, but his upside at this price on FanDuel is substantial, given his ability to strike out hitters and keep them off the basepaths.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #3 (FanDuel Only)

Masahiro Tanaka (9.6k FD)

Tanaka is only on the FanDuel slate since the Yankees game is starting at 6:35 tonight. He’s right-handed and pitching against the Padres, so let’s just start there. San Diego is striking out at a 27% clip this season and continues to be a team that I want to pick on with RHP.

Tanaka shouldn’t gather too much ownership today, considering he’s more expensive than Giolito, Hill, and Montas, but that’s also what makes him appealing to me. His strikeout percentage has dipped to 22% this year, but the good news (especially for a pitcher that pitches their home games in Yankee stadium) is that his groundball rates are up.

He’s been very efficient lately, allowing only two runs in his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He’s had great control, too, walking only one hitter during that span. Yesterday, the Yankees bullpen combined for 11 strikeouts while limiting the Padres to two runs. They used six pitchers in that game. It would make sense that tonight they might ride Tanaka a bit longer than usual and allow him the chance to go 7-8 innings if he continues to pitch as efficiently as he has recently.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Ryan Yarbrough (6k FD, 8.2k DK)

Yarbrough is the projected reliever today for the Tampa Bay Rays. Are you annoyed with teams using openers yet? Well, get used to it because it’s a copycat league and the trend is catching on since it’s working for the Rays. If you want to read more about how to handle when teams use openers in MLB DFS, check out this article I wrote about it!

Anyway, back to Yarbrough. He’s badly underpriced on FanDuel, as they must have forgotten that it was his turn in the rotation coming up. Draftkings anticipated this and priced him in the mid-tier today, but I still think he’s very playable at the 8.2k price tag over there.

Yarbrough returned from a month at AAA to throw 7 solid innings against the Indians last week in which he allowed only 2 runs on 4 hits. He had struggled a bit in his five April appearances which led to his demotion, but if his last “start” shows us the type of potential this young lefty has.

Yarbrough gets a Toronto team that is still striking out at a 25% clip on the season and he will face them at home in a big ballpark that should help him contain their power. He made only one appearance against them this season and pitched two clean innings in relief. I love his upside on FanDuel at that crazy price and I think he’s in the mix for cash games as your SP2 on DK, too.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Dylan Bundy (7.2k FD, 8.5k DK)

No this is not a prank, I am, in fact, recommending Dylan Bundy as one my top 7 pitchers on a 15-game slate. Let’s take a second to examine Bundy as a pitcher for a minute because while he has earned the reputation as a gas can over the last year, it might be too early to decide that he’s not a good pitcher.

Fact: Dylan Bundy gave up 41 homers last season. Yes, it’s true and that’s why he’s become everyone’s favorite punching bag. But the reality is he’s a fly ball pitcher who pitches half of his games in an extremely hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Tonight he faces the Tigers, a team with the fourth lowest ISO rating on the slate. That certainly helps his case tonight.

Fact: Dylan Bundy is a strikeout pitcher. He averages about a strikeout per inning this season and that’s actually down a little from last year. He has a 12% swinging strike rate, too. The ability to miss bats is always something I’m interested in when rostering a pitcher in DFS and Detroit has a 26% K rate this year.

Fact: Dylan Bundy has the lowest hard contact rate on the slate (26%). Yes, this last one is probably the most surprising, but if you buy into this metric, then you have to acknowledge that Bundy is not getting hit as hard as people would like to believe. The reality is that he’s made 7 straight starts of five innings or more and has allowed more than 3 ER just twice this season. He has been a pretty reliable pitcher for Baltimore this year.

I’d rather play Yarbrough on DK for a few hundred less, but this FanDuel price is something that I’m very interested in tonight for tournaments. Dylan Bundy is not bad, but the Tigers offense is bad!

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Zach Plesac (5.4k FD, 4.5k DK)

Fun Fact: That is not Zach Plesac in the picture above, but rather his uncle Dan who had a successful 18-year career as a reliever for six different MLB teams from 1986-2003.

So are you interested in a rostering a 24-year-old rookie in their major league debut against the Red Sox? Did you already advance to the next slide? Still here? Okay, here’s my case for using this young kid tonight in GPPs.

First of all, you should know that Plesac is being called up because he has been downright filthy in the minors this Spring. He dominated his six starts at AA and then proceeded to pitch extremely well over his next four starts at AAA. How well did he pitch you say? How about 22 strikeouts in 20 innings while allowing only one run and one walk?

The scouting report on Plesac shows that he’s tuned up his mechanics in the offseason to give him another 1-2 MPH on his fastball, which he’s now throwing past hitters more often and is better able to set up his devastating changeup. Targeting the Red Sox might seem crazy, but when a kid who’s throwing this well is making their debut, I’d take them against just about anyone. When hitters are seeing a pitcher for the first time, I give the advantage to the pitcher 95% of the time. And at these prices, we aren’t asking for any kind of dominant performance, just don’t get blown up, kid.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Giolito-Yarbrough, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Rich Hill-Plesac to save some salary for bats.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

And finally, just because a guy is pricier on one site than another doesn’t mean he’s totally out of play. I just might play some Montas or Rich Hill on DK and anticipate them to be low owned in good spots.

Cash Rankings

1. Giolito
2. Tanaka (FD)
3. Yarbrough (DK)
4. Rich Hill
5. Bundy

GPP Rankings

1. Hill (FD)
2. Montas (FD)
3. Giolito
4. Bundy
5. Plesac

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck