DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29 – Buehler… Buehler

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

Happy hump day everybody, and welcome back to another DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave. Sorry again for no article yesterday, but I worked an incredibly long day and came home sick as a dog. All back to normal now, so back at it again.

We were let down two days ago by Luis Castillo, as we had a solid lineup that would’ve had no problems cashing if he didn’t basically deliver a floor game. As it was, we were still able to cash in double ups, so small victories!

We’ve got a 9 game slate today, with some really interesting options, especially on the mound. We once again have a game at Coors, and once again, I think we can get away with fading them. As long as nothing crazy happens in the 8th or 9th innings, fading Coors was a great way to win last night (at the time of writing it is 4-2 Rockies).

So,  if not Coors, what should you play today? Read on to find out!

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

Starting Pitcher

Love

Aaron Nola: Bear with me here, but Aaron Nola may just be slowly returning to his form of last year. He has 5 games of 30 or more FD points in his last 6 starts, and the strikeouts haven’t gone anywhere. In fact, his K/9 is up to 10.30. The BABIP of .362 has been the main killer, and that is going to fall eventually. STL is a good offence, but Nick Pivetta just held them to 3 runs, and there isn’t much to suggest Nola can’t do much better than that.

Like

Walker Buehler: Buehler seems to have gotten himself on track after a rocky start, allowing only 2 ER in his last 19 innings. The strikeouts have been slowly climbing too, and he now has 52 in 55.1 innings. I think he will be chalk, as on a bigger slate yesterday, Rich HIll was nearly 60% owned in the exact same matchup. I don’t hate or love Buehler today, but if you look at the pitchers under Nola, I think it’s clear pitching may win this slate.

Leave

Trent Thornton – Genesis Cabrera: Like I said, I think it imperative to spend up at pitcher today, and with that mindset, I didn’t even consider a pitcher below Nola. There simply isn’t a matchup or skill level for any of these guys that I think turns into a solid outing. I’m sure 1 or 2 of them will do well, but I can’t for the life of me even begin to figure out which ones.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

First Baseman

Love

Rhys Hoskins: Hoskins is going to cost you a pretty penny tonight, but he’s at home, and gets an absolute mouth-watering matchup against Genesis Cabrera, who has an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.58 in AAA! I don’t know why the Cardinals have called him up, but it allows us to basically chose from any of the Philly bats we want. Hoskins is the first bat in any  of my lineups tonight.

Like

Kevin Cron: Eventually the Diamondbacks are going to figure out what they have in Cron. They insist on shoving Walker in there, but he’s 1 for his last 28. At some point they have to look at Cron and see the obvious conclusion that he is an upgrade. The power upside with Cron is staggering, as he’s mashed 21 homers in AAA this year already. He’s in Coors, against a bad pitcher. Play the man.

Leave

Pete Alonso: The honeymoon phase may be over with Alonso, who is 4 for his last 23, and with the power and average fading, the strikeouts are looking more and more jarring. There is every hope the rookie finds his stroke again, as he is still young, but today is not the day to find that out. I’m going to make a (semi) bold call, and say he strikes out another 2 times today.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

Second Baseman

Love

Hanser Alberto: Alberto continues to get the call as the leadoff hitting against lefties, and he continues to deliver, reaching base in 5 straight, with 2 multi-hit games. He gets another soft matchup in Ryan Carpenter, and you all know my feelings about the second base position. We take what we can get, and Alberto is certainly better than most alternatives.

Like

Starlin Castro: The Miami Marlins have, surprisingly, been good recently, and I am fully on the “MadBum is a fraud” train. He hasn’t been bad by any stretch, but the velo and movement numbers are down from his peak years, so it stands to reason the strikeouts will regress, and with them, the runs will come. Castro is fairly priced at only 2,300 and worth taking a shot at if you need the cap space.

Leave

Ozzie Albies:  Somewhat inexplicably, the Braves have moved Albies to the 8 spot. Now, I’m not a major league manager, but this seems like a sure-fire way to screw with the confidence of one of your young studs, who was hitting perfectly well in the leadoff spot before the impromptu demotion. The Braves infatuation with Donaldson will end eventually, but until it does, Albies belongs on the sit list.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

Third Baseman

Jeimer Candelario: Call this what you will, but Candelario is only 8 months removed from a season where he hit for 19 homers and 78 runs. The wrist injury may have messed with his swing mechanics, but a stint in the minors may have done the trick, as he mashed his way through AAA. Baltimore pitching is bad, and while Means isn’t bad himself, the bullpen remains the worst in the league by far. In fact, they’ve given up 106 home runs this season, worst in the league by 20. Might be worth a shot!

Like

Renato Nunez: Nunez has smashed a staggering 6 home runs in his last 9 games, and while he doesn’t hit for much average, he doesn’t need to with power like that. I like a mini-stack of him and Alberto today, as they face one of the weaker pitchers on the slate.

Leave

Nolan Arenado: Arenado at Coors, and I’m fading him? I must be crazy right? Well, maybe. This play game down to Arenado vs Hoskins as I can’t afford to spend up at both spots, and Robbie Ray is a pitcher who can shut down a roster on a hot night, and he’s used to playing in a hitters park anyways. Spending 4,900 on Arenado seems like a risk, as he falls victim to the Cody Bellinger fallacy.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

Shortstop

Love

Jean Segura: Once again, I think the Phillies could take Cabrera for a ride today, and I’m stacking at least Segura and Hoskins, and also what will likely be one outfielder. Segura is usually a safe floor bet as he hits for incredible average, but this might be a run party in Philly today.

Like

Adalberto Mondesi: Mondesi hasn’t been held off the DFS scoresheet in 13 games, continuing to showcase how many ways be can be valuable from a fantasy perspective.  What’s more, he has only stolen three bases over that stretch, without a home run. A ceiling game could be coming from Mondesi, as he’s clearly seeing the ball well.

Leave

Javier Baez: If Baez plays in this one, and if I’m Joe Maddon, he won’t, he is not a good idea to be in play. Baez has struck out a mind-boggling 8 times in the last two games, really showing the low-end of his abilities. When he’s good, there aren’t many better, but when he’s bad, there aren’t many worse. Right now, he’s bad.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

Outfielders

Love

Andrew McCutchen: Rounding out my Phillies stack will be none other than the former NL MVP. Cutch has 9 hits in his last nine games, and even if he wasn’t in form, this matchup is too juicy to pass up. Cabrera holds a sub 9 K/9, a BB/9 over 4, and a GB% of only 38%, and that’s in the minors. I shudder to think what Cutch and the Phillies might do to this poor kid.

Like

Jarrod Dyson: If you’re looking to get some exposure to Coors, and I don’t blame you if you are, I would favor the bats of the D-backs, where Hoffman provides a softer matchup than Ray. They are also more fairly priced, and Dyson’s combination of speed, and the increased ball flight of Coors may buoy him to the top of the list very quickly.

Like #2

Austin Meadows: I felt obligated to put Meadows in this article, as he has been absolutely mashing the ball lately. It doesn’t particularly matter who is pitching or from what side, as Meadows is simply crushing it all. He is 12/23 in his last 5 games , with homers coming in 3 straight. His ownership continues to be criminally low as well, and with Coors on the slate, he may get overlooked once more.

DFS MLB – Love, Like, Leave – 5/29

Sample Lineup

SP: Aaron Nola

C/1B: Rhys Hoskins

2B: Hanser Alberto

3B: Jeimer Candelario

SS: Jean Segura

OF: Andrew McCutchen

OF: Josh Reddick

OF: Jarrod Dyson

Util: Kevin Cron

Let’s hope we crush today and stay in the green. As always, follow me on twitter @ZookDFS for updates as the day goes on, and for general baseball talk if you’d like!