MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 30 – An Amazin Mess
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate felt super chalky all day with everyone working in the same basic core of Blake Snell/Pablo Lopez with the Coors bats and well, on this night the chalk was not the way to go. In fact, of the top 20 raw point plays, only 1 player (Trea Turner) was double-digit owned in the $25 Home Run GPP on FantasyDraft as Pete Alonso led all scorers with 35 fantasy points on the back of two home runs, while Anibal Sanchez fresh off the DL put up the top pitching performance on the night with 30 FPTS – so much for eating the chalk huh?
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Thursday Main Slate Pitching:
We have a seven game Main Slate here on Thursday which could very quickly become a five game slate with serious rain risk for the Yankees/Red Sox and Brewers/Pirates. Unfortunately that will knock some of the most talented offenses out of the player pool as well as a top-tier K arm in Chris Sale against the Yankees in the Bronx.
But listen, its Thursday after a holiday weekend – you may be dragging a little bit – how about a FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft with 160 tickets worth $400 will be given out to the winners – get in on this!
If we operate under the assumption that the Yankees/Red Sox game is a wash out, then it eliminates Chris Sale from the player pool and while we have a handful of viable alternatives, frankly none of them fell like must plays and the majority of them feel over-priced.
Rather than pay up all the way up, I think you can pay slightly down for Carlos Carrasco ($18.6K) who gets a road start against the White Sox. From a pure K perspective, Carrasco has arguably the highest upside match-up as his 14.2% swinging strike rate is the highest on the slate and the White Sox 26.7% K rate also happens to lead all teams on this Main Slate.
This will be the third time Carrasco will face the White Sox this season and the third time in his last five starts he faces them so there is always a risk in a pitcher seeing an offense this many times but based off his track record, Carrasco has shown this is a spot he can dominate.
In his two previous starts, Carrasco has gone for 28 and 31 fantasy points, with 6 K’s in both outings while shutting out the White Sox in consecutive starts. When you consider that Carrasco is $1,000 cheaper than arms like Charlie Morton and Mike Minor tonight, I think you take the slight savings for him as your SP1.
Felix Pena ($14.9K) is expected to start or come in as the long man tonight for the Angels, and while there has been no official word as I type this at 5 AM EST, make sure you keep an eye on the news.
Pena has moved back and forth between the pen and the rotation and has really seemed to fit in well in this hybrid role delivering 32 and 23 fantasy points in two of his last five “starts.” The Mariners are likely going to have 6 lefties in their starting line-up with aligns nicely with Pena’s 26% K rate against lefties and overall this projected line-up has a 25.6% K rate against RHP.
The Mariners on the season have a 24.9% K rate against RHP which is ranked 7th most in all of baseball and Pena’s price tag gives you the ability to drop down at SP2 while still stacking a top offense with a high-priced arm like Carrasco.
The more I look at this slate, I do want to mention using Charlie Morton ($19.6K) as a pivot off Carrasco or even someone you could pair with him if you opt to go double “aces.” Over the last 30 days, pitchers with a minimum of 20 innings of work – take a guess at the top K arms in baseball:
Chris Sale: 43.8%
Gerrit Cole: 42%
Charlie Morton: 33%
Morton is not a guy I normally put in this elite K arm category but with a 31% K rate this year and a 37% K rate to LHB, in a match-up against a Twins projected line-up that will have 5 lefties in it – there is some serious K upside and appeal here that we cannot overlook.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
There are a few teams, match-ups or players that we as DFS players tend to lean on – we all have our favorite stacks or arms that we dial in on when we see them and tonight is one of those nights for me. No, it is not a Jon Lester night – however we get two of my favorite DFS past times colliding in one glorious match-up – picking on Jason Vargas AND stacking the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Jason Vargas since the start of 2018 is giving up a near 40% HC rate and over .220 ISO mark to RHB and tonight is faces perhaps the worst possible match-up for him – a right-handed power heavy Dodgers line-up that Vegas already has with a 5 IRT.
Look at the top 6 batters in the Dodgers projected line-up – Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, David Freese, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy – all six have .200 plus ISO marks against LHP this season with 4 of the 6 sporting 50% or higher HC rates.
Not only is this stack loaded with power, but outside of Belly/Muncy all the right-handed hitters here are affordable with Turner ($8.1K), Hernandez ($7.3K) and Taylor ($6.3K) giving you excellent salary relief.
This Mets/Dodgers series has been one you would have thought pitching would dominate with guys like Kershaw, deGrom, Thor, Buehler etc all on the hill but this series has been all about offense with 14, 10 and 17 runs scored in the first three games.
On FantasyDraft where you get the ability to stack 6 players from one team, I think a 1-6 Dodgers stack is priority #1 here tonight.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
SP: Carlos Carrasco
SP: Felix Pena
IF: Pete Alonso
IF: Justin Turner
IF: Max Muncy
OF: Cody Bellinger
OF: Kike’ Hernandez
OF: Chris Taylor
UTIL: David Freese
UTIL: Joey Gallo
Slate Overview: Looking at this slate, I am likely to work backwards in my builds, prioritizing a 6 man Dodgers stack and some power one-offs like Joey Gallo or a far too cheap Pete Alonso ($7.3K) and then working backwards into the arms I want.
The likelihood tonight is that the Rangers become the chalky stack with a near 6 IRT against Jake Junis, and their pricing is far more substantial than the Dodgers which means you are going to have to make sacrifices elsewhere.
The Dodgers give you the price savings which allow you to still pay up for arms – even in this build I showed here, you can easily drop down from Joey Gallo and use the savings to pay up from Pena to another pricey arm.
Good luck all!
Next. DraftKings MLB Picks - May 30. dark
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.