The NBA Finals may hinge on Kawhi Leonard’s playmaking

TORONTO, CANADA - MAY 25: Malcolm Brogdon #13 of the Milwaukee Bucks defends Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors during Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals on May 25, 2019 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images)
TORONTO, CANADA - MAY 25: Malcolm Brogdon #13 of the Milwaukee Bucks defends Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors during Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals on May 25, 2019 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The playoffs demand nothing less than a star player’s absolute best, and only through Kawhi Leonard delivering have the Raptors advanced to the first NBA Finals in franchise history. Leonard is on the sort of run that merits pause to consider just how indomitable he has been since the postseason began in early April.

His scoring efficiency in these playoffs is surpassed only by Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, and his averages of 31.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists fail to note the fact that he has been among the postseason’s very best defenders.

Leonard’s individual offense has improved to a point of undeniability. He may not feature Durant’s lofty, parabolic release or Curry’s deep, off-the-dribble shooting, but no single defender can deny Leonard his preferred spots on the floor. The trouble, however, comes on the arrival of a second, or even third, defender. Where he surpasses most every superstar as a defender and isolation scorer, he falls short as a playmaker. He passes as a last resort rather than a means of actively compromising the defense. What James Harden and LeBron James fluently anticipate, Leonard often struggles to identify.

In most instances, it makes no difference — Leonard can power his way to the basket or elevate for a pull-up jumper anyway, and his tour de force through the playoffs has come against three of the NBA’s best defenses. Golden State will pose a new challenge. In addition to having a store of versatile defenders on the wing (which is weakened by Durant’s absence), the Warriors possess the collective instincts, intelligence and expertise to at least slow a scorer like Leonard. Backed by one of the smartest and physically gifted help defenders of all time in Draymond Green, they’ll send help aggressively as much as necessary. They sag off of non-shooters — or even semi-shooters — more liberally than perhaps any team but Houston and disguise weak-side defense as well as anyone. They’ll vary their coverages and force Leonard to consider his options more scrupulously than he has in previous rounds.

How much help Golden State can afford, however, will depend on Leonard’s passing acumen. He likely won’t set up teammates by anticipating or outsmarting the defense but is capable of passing out of double-teams on drives and post-ups to players already in position to capitalize. He made strides as a passer over the course of the Eastern Conference Finals, and most of his 16 assists over the final two games were of the drive-and-kick variety:

Leonard runs the bulk of his isolations and pick-and-rolls from the right wing and can be devastating with an empty side with which to work. But against a defense as active and intelligent Golden State’s, clearing out an entire side of the floor may only serve as an invitation to overload the strong side with help defenders. In the Conference Finals, Toronto countered that by stationing a shooter in the right corner, offering Leonard a more apparent release valve:

Fred VanVleet has also proven useful in that role, moving cleverly away from the ball to set up wide-open attempts. Notice how he darts toward the top of the key — the opposite direction a shooter normally would on a right-handed drive — just as Eric Bledsoe turns his head, and Leonard’s massive hands allow him to deliver accurate passes even against his own momentum:

Leonard has created 115 3s for his teammates this season — second only to Lowry for the team lead — and the Raptors are shooting 36.5 percent on those looks. Just as often, however, Leonard keeps his head down and forces shots with better options readily available:

If he can consistently spot Lowry on those sorts of actions, it changes what Golden State’s defense can get away with. Instead, three Warriors load toward him and force a difficult attempt. Leonard also tends to miss cutters — usually the opportunistic Pascal Siakam — in transition. Leaving those points on the table won’t do against one of the best halfcourt defenses in the NBA:

For players who come into the NBA raw, serve a narrow range of functions before slowly developing their full arsenal of skills, playmaking can often be one of the last abilities to blossom. Unless you enter the league with the preternatural instincts of LeBron James, Ben Simmons or Luka Dončić, it can take years of watching film, reading the floor and getting reps against live defenses for those reads to become natural. Leonard isn’t quite there yet, though his rate of improvement in the rest of his game suggests he may be soon. Just how soon could prove integral to how the rest of Toronto’s season unfolds.