MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday, 5/31 – The Lefties Are All Right

MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, 5/31

Welcome back to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

Tonight we have yet another huge 15-game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings that locks at 7:05. There are 30 pitchers taking the mound tonight and we have some major price differences from one site to another that are going to make some of my picks site-specific.  I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests and try to give you an idea of how I am going to approach roster construction tonight.

Here are tonight’s matchups. The home pitcher is listed second and the Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis when available.

Chris Sale (-125) vs. J.A. Happ

Jhoulys Chacin (-105) vs. Chris Archer

Drew Pomeranz (-115)  vs. Andrew Cashner 

Jose Berrios vs. Jalen Beeks (projected reliever) 

Patrick Corbin (-115) vs. Tyler Mahle

Spencer Turnbull vs. Mike Foltynewicz (-165)

Danny Duffy vs. Ariel Jurado (-110)

Trevor Bauer (-155) vs. Dylan Covey 

Yu Darvish vs. Miles Mikolas (-130)

Edwin Jackson vs. German Marquez (-260)

Zack Wheeler vs. Jon Duplantier 

Brad Peacock (-105) vs. Mike Fiers

Tyler Skaggs vs. Mike Leake

Caleb Smith vs. Joey Lucchesi (-155)

Jake Arrieta vs. Kenta Maeda (-160)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Brad Peacock (8.6k FD, 9.9k DK) @ Oakland

Peacock is obviously not an ace, but he’s a pretty darn good 5th starter for Houston and let’s face it, there are some bad pitching staffs out there on which he could be an ace.  I’m not sold on spending over 10k for any of the pricier pitchers in cash games tonight. In fact, paying down at pitcher into the mid-tier has been the optimal play more often than paying up lately. Don’t believe me? I did a full statistical analysis on a week’s worth of data here for FantasyData.

Now back to Peacock, he’s been consistently solid for Houston since entering the rotation and happens to be in the middle an impressive stretch of 24 innings in which he has allowed only one earned run while striking out 32 hitters.

Oakland is not always a team you want to pick on and in fact, they have a fairly low (20%) K rate. However, Peacock has been so good against righties this season that I think he matches up here extremely well against an almost all right-handed A’s lineup. Peacock has the lowest wOBA allowed to righties on the slate and a massive 30% K rate to righties as well.

The last thing working for him is the big ballpark in Oakland. I love targeting pitchers in stadiums with positive park factors and Oakland’s ballpark has been one of the best for pitchers for several years now. Despite being only a small favorite, I expect the Astros bats to give him plenty of run support and Peacock to pitch well tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Patrick Corbin (11.4k FD, 11.2k DK) @ Cincinnati

If paying down at pitcher is becoming more common, then won’t paying up for the top priced arm on the slate be contrarian? That’s the logic I am following with Corbin here today and I’m willing to get at least some exposure to him tonight even at this price because I think he has the highest raw points ceiling on the slate.

Corbin is a talented strikeout artist with a 28% K rate on the year. Meanwhile, the Reds have been a bottom third offense this season and have struggled at times against lefties and good strikeout pitchers.

Taking pitchers in Cincy is always risky, especially a guy like Corbin who does have a hard contact problem against righties. It’s a great hitters’ park, but the Reds will have to make contact first if they are going to hit any out of the yard. Corbin’s slider is a nasty out pitch, and the Reds simply aren’t an offense that strikes fear into my heart.

It doesn’t feel like the optimal play based on the salary, but paying up for Corbin is certainly a contrarian strategy that I think is absolutely on the table tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #2

German Marquez (7.5k FD, 9.5k DK)

We have a 2k pricing discrepancy here on Marquez, who technically qualifies as a “cheap arm” on FanDuel, while Draftkings factored the matchup into his salary instead of the park factor.

You all probably know I love using Marquez, and I promise you this is not a pick that is only based on how much I like him as a pitcher. Yes, he’s pitching in Coors, but he’s facing a Blue Jays offense that is striking out almost 26% of the time this season against RHP and is in the bottom 5 in nearly every offensive category against righties, too.

Marquez best secondary pitch is his slider, and we know that sliders are bad news for Toronto hitters. This sets up to be a really good spot for Marquez, who’s a large home favorite who should get plenty of run support to back him. I see him pitching deep into this game, piling up 7-8 strikeouts and picking up a QS and a win tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #3

Caleb Smith (9.8k FD, 9.7k DK) @ San Diego

I almost didn’t include Smith, because like I said with Marquez, I have to force myself not to write up my favorite pitchers every time they are on a slate. I told myself, “it’s not Caleb Smith day. You need to show some love to the other pitchers.” And then I dug into the stats a little further and realized that I actually really like this spot for the Miami ace.

The Padres are a team I’ve been targeting for the last month with right-handed pitchers, but they are actually striking out nearly 27% of the time against lefties, too. They are hitting .222 against lefties this season, but do have a respectable .195 ISO, which is why this is a GPP only spot. Smith is a fly ball pitcher, and therefore, is likely to give up some long balls during the season. At the same time, he’s also transformed himself into an elite strikeout pitcher with a 33% K rate and a 16% swinging strike rate. Those are Chris Sale type numbers.

The more I think about this spot, the more I like it. Smith is coming off his worst outing of the season and this slate has plenty of other pitching options, which means he should be relatively low owned in tournaments. I’m getting back on the Smith bandwagon today and I think you should strongly consider doing the same.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Joey Lucchesi (7.6k FD, 8.8k DK) vs. Miami

We jump from Caleb Smith right to his mound opponent in the same game, Joey Lucchesi. I really like Joey here tonight. He’s a home favorite and facing a Marlins offense that has been really putrid against lefties this season with an MLB low WRC+ of 63 and ISO of only .105.

Both pitchers from this game are firmly in play as it has the lowest total on the board at only 7 runs. Lucchesi comes into tonight’s game is good form, having posted two strong outings in a row against the Pirates and Blue Jays. He racked up a career-high 11 strikeouts in 6.2 innings against Toronto and while the Marlins K rate isn’t all that high against lefties, they certainly an offense that Lucchesi could dominate with his fastball-slider combo tonight.

The price on FanDuel is more appealing obviously, but I wouldn’t totally rule him out on DK tonight either. It’s tough to find that many pitchers on DK that are priced below Luchessi that have the type of upside that he does tonight. But there is one more lefty that I really like who’s cheaper on both sites…

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Danny Duffy (7.4k FD, 7.2k DK) @ Texas

It’s a Danny Duffy kind of night, and he might just be my favorite play on the board in terms of point-per-dollar upside. This is not the first time I’ve featured Duffy in this article this season, and his recent production has been pretty impressive. He’s reeled off back to back six-inning starts in which he allowed only one run in each.

He faced Texas once already this season and made it through the order twice before finally surrendering 4 runs to the Rangers. However, he struck out 6 over 5 innings in that start and I think he has some nice K upside here against this Texas team. The Rangers have the second highest K rate to lefties this season at a whopping 28%. And while they are an offense we fear against RHP, they’ve continued to be mediocre at best against lefties this season.

Paying down to Duffy on either site tonight is going to be the path to getting some expensive bats (like say the Rockies perhaps with their 7.2 implied run total?). I like the matchup a lot and I think Duffy finds a way to shut down Texas on the road tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Gans of the Night

Chris Archer vs. Milwaukee

J.A. Happ vs. Boston

Neither of these pitchers is known as a gas can, in fact, both were supposed to be anchors in their teams’ respective rotations. But the link here between them is that they have both been really bad so far this season, yet DFS players don’t always pick on them because of name recognition. I am going to make the case that you should pick on them both tonight.

Let’s start with Archer. There isn’t a night that I don’t cry myself to sleep when I look at what Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow are doing for Tampa, while Archer continues to be lost on the mound for my battling Bucs. He’s carrying a terrible 13% walk rate this season and simply can’t find the strike zone. His fastball velocity has dipped down in the 93 MPH range and he’s throwing a ton of sliders this season, which has been bad since his slider has been getting destroyed by opposing hitters.  He’s given up 8 homers this season already and the Brewers are a team full of left-handed power hitters. I don’t think it’s going to end up well tonight for Archer and my Pirates.

Now, on to Happ. His situation is different than Archer’s in that he at least has an excuse for sucking this year – he’s getting old. At age 36 we are finally seeing the decline of a pitcher who was a steady innings eater for Toronto and the Yankees for many years (and for the Pirates for one-half season). But the strikeouts are vanishing and the home runs are increasing. Happ has allowed 2 homers a game and has seen his ERA balloon over 5. He’s going to have a hard time against the Red Sox tonight, a team with a bevy of right-handed bats and his home splits this year have been bad, too. I’ll be loading up on J.D. Martinez, Steve Pearce, and probably a few more lefty-mashing Sox in my lineups tonight. RIP J.A Happ.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not although tonight I’m making the case for saving a few hundred bucks in cap with Peacock.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Peacock-Lucchesi, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Smith-Duffy or Marquez-Duffy in order to save some salary for bats.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Peacock
2. Lucchesi
3. Corbin
4. Duffy
5. Marquez

GPP Rankings

1. Corbin
2. Marquez
3. Duffy
4. Lucchesi
5. Peacock

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck