Main DraftKings MLB Picks June 1: Is Verlander worth the money?
By Mike Marteny
Main DraftKings MLB Picks June 1: Is Verlander worth the money?
We have an interesting early slate for our DraftKings MLB tournaments. The two games starting at 1:10 and 2:10 eastern are in their own turbo slate instead of being included in the early slate. The next five games make up the early slate. There are then eight games for the main tournament. Are you thoroughly confused? Good. That’s the way they want it!
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The weather is almost perfect for the night games. There is no rain to worry about, and the only breeze over 10 mph is in Arizona. I doubt the roof is open though since it’s going to be triple digit terror by the time of first pitch.
I had Trevor Story in most of my lineups, but that alone wasn’t enough to cash. I had too little exposure to Jurado on the cheap and too much exposure to Steve Pearce. All of my nine lineups hit triple digits, but 130 didn’t even cash. I had several in the 120-130 range, and 160, which is usually really high, was only good enough for $2.50.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Justin Verlander ($11,900): The A’s are only hitting .234 with two homers, six runs, and 21 strikeouts in 77 at bats against Verlander. That’s pretty much what we expected. Is Verlander really worth the money though? If you are stacking Coors on either side, you can’t afford Verlander. And there are a lot of great options at pitcher on the cheap tonight. Verlander is probably hitting 30, but we have two guys at about 60% of Verlander’s price that could hit 20. I can see paying for the sure thing in cash, but I may stay off of Verlander in GPP’s.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,100): The Phillies were shut down by Maeda, who has struggled against the Phillies, last night. The Phils are only hitting .208 in 120 at bats against Kershaw with three homers, eight runs, and 39 strikeouts. Those numbers are plenty good enough to throw out there as your SP1 tonight if you are fading Verlander.
Jacob deGrom ($9,400): I look at this price and think deGrom is an autoplay for this price tag. He’s not. It’s easy to forget that deGrom has a 3.71 ERA on the season. However, Arizona is loaded with righties that strike out quite a bit and don’t hit right handed pitching well. This is still a strong place for deGrom if you can look past his disaster at Dodgers Stadium last week.
Middle Tier:
Domingo German ($8,900): I really like the price drop on German here. I kind of get it. The Red Sox are a good offensive team. However, it still says something that I don’t want any of their bats at the inflated price. The inverse of that is a cheap German, who has dazzled with a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five home starts.
Jon Gray ($7,400): Gray has put up some good home numbers this year. He faces a Blue Jays team that has some power, but they still strike out a ton. Gray may give up a couple of homers, but the strikeouts will limit the damage. Gray has only allowed three homers in four home starts. That’s pretty impressive considering the park he calls home. I like Gray’s upside as well against the free swinging Jays.
Jack Flaherty ($7,200): Flaherty was not at his best against the Cubs in the first meeting, but still cranked out 20 DraftKings points. He could be even better tonight considering Flaherty has a 2.06 ERA in six home starts. The Cubs are only hitting .200 against Flaherty in 55 at bats with two homers, five RBI, and a whopping 23 strikeouts. I love this price point on Flaherty.
Bargain Pitchers:
Rick Porcello ($6,900): There’s a couple of things that have me sweating this, most of which is Porcello’s road issues here. His 5.56 career ERA at Yankee Stadium doesn’t help either. However, this price is very reasonable. Porcello has eight straight starts of double digit DraftKings points. In this price range, that’s about all we are looking for. The Yankees are still missing a lot of power. The ones that are left are hitting just .211 against Porcello in 175 at bats with 16 runs. You can do a lot worse for this price. I like the upside here.
Tom Milone ($6,300): We’ve seen this before. Milone comes out of the gate strong, but ends the season with an ERA near 6. Regression is coming soon, but probably not as soon as tonight. The Angels are still struggling against lefties. Both of Milone’s starts this year came against the Rangers. He put up 40.6 DraftKings points in those games. He should approach 20 DraftKings points tonight against the Angels as well.
Jose Urena ($5,900): Hey, don’t laugh. Urena has only given up eight runs (six earned) in his last four starts. Urena also has a strong 3.09 ERA on the road and is facing a strikeout prone team full of right handed hitters. Of course there is risk involved, but it seems as though Urena is figuring this pitching thing out. He’s a nice cheap option tonight.
My picks: German, Flaherty; Flaherty, Porcello
DraftKings MLB stack options
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jose Quintana:
Quintana was solid against the Cubs earlier this year at Wrigley, but his road ERA is still a bloated 5.11. The Cardinals are also hitting a whopping .354 with five homers and 20 runs in 113 at bats. Goldy has torched Quintana, going 6-11 with two homers and six RBI. DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, and Dexter Fowler have the other homes. Jose Martinez and Matt Carpenter are my candidates for the fifth slot in the stack.
Florida Marlins vs. Nick Margevicius:
Margevicius has an unsightly 6.47 ERA at home, and righties have hit him well. The bad news is that Margevicius will be facing eight righties tonight. Harold Ramirez and Brian Anderson stand out. I’m also loving Starlin Castro on the cheap. Jorge Alfaro is a strong option as well. The fifth can be Austin Dean leading off, but he continues to struggle. We may be better off with Miguel Rojas or Cooper.
Houston Astros vs. Brett Anderson:
Fiers trolled those of us that stacked Astros that night, but that likely wont happen here. Houston is hitting .452 with two homers and six runs in two starts against Anderson. THey hit him well. Anderson has not retired Jake Marisnick, who is only $4,000. Even Josh Reddick is 4-5 with a homer against Anderson. Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, and Robinson Chirinos have all hit Anderson well too.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cole Irvin:
The Dodgers against a rookie with a 5.60 ERA in his fourth career start? Yes please! This could be the alternate to a Rockies stack. Kike Hernandez mauls lefties, so I want all of him. Justin Turner and Will Smith look like excellent plays as well. I wouldn’t shy away from a hot Bellinger or Max Muncy either. The Dodgers are going to be in that right hand dominant bullpen early enough!
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Kendrys Morales have all homered twice against Rick Porcello. The bad news? Those three are a combined 29-132(,220). Oh, and Scary Gary Sanchez is 2-13 against Porcello.
If you want to take a run at Jack Flaherty tonight, it better be a calculated one. Enter Anthony Rizzo, who is 5-9 with a homer and four RBI off of Flaherty. I would consider Schwarber batting leadoff, but I’m not too crazy about any Cubs here.
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I just can’t stack Mariners right now, but Mitch Haniger is 4-13 with two solo homers against Andrew Heaney. Haniger is a perfect one off tonight. If you want more than that, the Mariners are loaded with right handed power potential.
Mike Trout is expensive, but probably worth it tonight. Trout has two homers and five RBI in 24 at bats against Milone. Albert Pujols is 11-25(.440) with a solo homer off of Milone.
I was gung ho for the Rockies last night, but my interest tonight it tepid. Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher. I would considering using him if we needed value, but there are better pitchers with less risk at his price point. Trevor Story and Arenado are still in play, but I wont have any other Rockies.
I may throw Vlad Jr. out there again, but I don’t see any other Blue Jays that I can get excited about.
Jose Urena has actually been a good pitcher on the road. However, Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer, and Greg Garcia have all homered off of him. Don’t rule out Hunter Renfroe getting into one either.
Matt Chapman and Matt Olson have both homered against Verlander, but I’m not going to go out of my way to play anyone against Verlander. That’s a pretty good way to lose money.
The Mets are only hitting a buck sixty three against Greinke, but they have smacked four homers in 86 at bats. Aaron Altherr, Juan Lagares, Carlos Gomes, and the Toddfather all have taken Greinke deep. Can any of the duplicate the feat?
Realmuto and McCutchen have both homered off of Kershaw, but there are better places to attack tonight. Chasing Kershaw also seems like a good way to diminish your bankroll.
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