NBA DFS: Game 2 Finals Showdown Picks

NBA DFS: Game 2 Showdown Picks

Hello there, NBA fans, and welcome to my Finals showdown article. I covered the NBA for 5 months this season and honestly, I miss writing about it. I’ve been on the MLB beat now for 2 months straight and I wanted to take an opportunity to put some NBA DFS content out there today for all of you who all still grinding the one game showdowns on FanDuel or DraftKings.

Game 1 was really fun to watch and I think we have a series that has the potential to go 6 or 7 games here. This series has everything we want, star power, some drama with injuries to Kevin Durant and Boogie Cousins, super fans like Drake (annoying) and Nav Bhatia (awesome – read more about him here), and some well-played, fast-paced basketball.

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1134303191833632770

I am going to do my best to give you my top plays for both FanDuel and Draftkings today. The formats for their one-game contests are very different and the pricing of players is going to lead you to slightly different roster constructions. However, you’re going to need to nail the same plays on either site if you hope to cash in those cash games or GPPs.

I mainly play GPPs for showdown, given the variance of single-game slates, but there’s plenty of cash game contests out there and I think building a cash game lineup is pretty straightforward for Sunday’s game given the circumstances, but more on that later.

For now, let’s break down what happened in Game 1 and see if we can figure out how the teams are likely to adjust going into Game 2.

NBA DFS: Breaking Down Game 1

The Raptors pulled off a huge home victory in game 1, winning 118-109. They led for most of the game and outscored the Warriors in 3 out of 4 quarters. The hero for Toronto for once was not Kawhi Leonard, but rather the incredible third-year player Pascal Siakam. Siakam had one of the best NBA Finals debuts in history, scoring 32 points and adding 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks and steal on a remarkable 14-17 shooting.

Siakam was simply lights out scoring the basketball. He was draining threes and converting tough, contested looks at the rim. As far as minutes played goes, Kawhi led the team with 43 minutes and was second in scoring with 23 points. He struggled from the field, however, shooting 5-14 but was able to get 10 points at the free throw line.

Kyle Lowry played 36 minutes, but failed to crack double digits in scoring and got into some foul trouble late in the game. The Raptors big three all played their usual minutes as expected, but it was Marc Gasol and Fred Van Vleet who won the minutes battle in their timeshares in game one over Serge Ibaka and Danny Green.

Gasol logged 29 minutes to Ibaka’s 17 and was effective on both offense and defense before fouling out late in the game. Meanwhile, VanVleet played 33 minutes and looked great playing backup point guard or alongside Lowry and was even giving Steph Curry some trouble on defense.

The Raptors went small for much of the game and it should be noted that Danny Green still had his best game since game 1 of the Bucks series, scoring 24 FD points and 22.5 DK points.

NBA DFS: Breaking Down Game 1

Sounds wild to say, but the Warriors were held eight points under their season scoring average in Game 1, as they averaged 117 points per game this season on their way to the best record in the Western Conference.

It was predictably the Steph Curry show on offense as he carried the team on his back with 34 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists in 40 minutes. The other Warriors stars Draymond Green and Klay Thompson also played around 40 minutes as Klay added 21 points and Draymond had a poor man’s triple-double, posting a 10-10-10 line.

The Warriors played 12 guys in total as Steve Kerr was desperately looking for the right combination out there on the floor to slow down the Toronto offense. Andre Iguodala returned from injury and played 29 minutes but was largely a non-factor on offense or defense and Kevon Looney led the reserves in minutes with 28 minutes.

Jordan Bell started at center but played only 11 minutes and DeMarcus Cousins returned what seemed like it was going to be a season-ending injury to log 8 minutes, but never looked comfortable.

Shaun Livingston was the only other Warrior who hit double-digit minutes as he played 17 minutes off the bench. His versatility as a long, rangy defender and ability to help run the point is something the Kerr has relied upon a lot in past years during the playoffs.

The Warriors shot only 43% from the field, while Toronto shot an impressive 50% from the field and slightly better than the Dubs from behind the arc, too.

The full box score can be found here if you’re interested in taking a look at any more numbers from Game 1.

NBA DFS: Cash Game Plays

Pascal Siakam (11.5 FD, 9.8k DK)

Siakam is going to be uber chalk after his game 1 performance and you’re simply going to have to eat it in cash games. He’s 14.7k as captain on DraftKings and I think many players will slot him in there to save some cap over Kawhi, Dray, and Curry.

Even if he doesn’t repeat his game 1 performance, which is not likely, this style of game is perfect for his skill set and I think the Raptors are going to continue to lean on him in this series. He’s a tough guard for anyone, even a great defender like Draymond. On FanDuel, I’d slot him in one of the multiplier spots (MVP, STAR, PRO) for sure.

Stephen Curry (15.5k FD, 17.4k DK)

With KD out again for game 2, we can expect Steph to resume his role as an alpha dog for the Dubs. Steph is really un-guard-able at this stage of his career, and even if you scheme against him, he’s going to get his points with the number of shots he’s going to put up in this game. He is by far one of the safest plays from either team.

Kawhi Leonard (16k FD, 17.7k DK)

So Kawhi finally had an off night and still scored 43 DK points and 41 FD points. That shows you the tremendous floor that he has right now as he’s playing big minutes and has the ball in his hands on nearly every Raptors’ possession.  As I mentioned earlier, he shot poorly in game one so I would expect him to improve upon his 23 points in game 2.  He also only registered one defensive stat (a steal) in game one which is well below his season average of 2.1 steals/blocks.

Draymond Green (14.5k FD, 15.6k DK)

Draymond has been such a beast for the Warriors since KD went down and has reminded everyone that he’s a walking triple-double when thrust back into the role of point-forward for this Warrior team. His performance in game one was his worst since the Houston series, and we saw him going absolutely nuts during the Portland series.

Sure, Siakam and Ibaka are tough match-ups, but Draymond’s role in this offense is going to give him ample opportunities to rack up stats and like Kawhi, he only had one defensive stat in game one, while he had over 2.5 per game on the season. He has a great floor and ceiling in game 2.

***On FanDuel, it’s possible to squeeze in 3 of these four studs into your cash lineups and I’d recommend doing it. On DK, it’s more than likely you’re only going to be able to fit 2 unless you play a cheaper player (like FVV maybe) in the captain spot.

Value Play: Fred VanVleet (9.5k FD, 5.8k DK)

NBA DFS: GPP Plays

Klay Thompson (12.5k FD, 8.4k DK)

Klay is the ultimate GPP pivot off the Curry/Draymond chalk. Without KD, the Warriors need scoring and in game 1 the Dubs ran all of their offensive sets for Curry and Klay. He ended up just one field goal attempt shy of Curry and made 8-17 shots from the field.

What Klay needs to do is be more aggressive in going to the basket and looking for more mid-range shots as the Raptors are doing everything they can to take away open looks at three-pointers.  We know how he can fill it up when he gets hot, and he’s certainly going to have plenty of opportunities in game 2 to get it going.

Kyle Lowry (12k FD, 7.6k DK)

Lowry is going to be the big pivot for the Raptors if you’re looking for the lowest owned Toronto player with upside. He only shot the ball 9 times in game 1 and was 1-5 from downtown. However, this team will need him to score in this series and I think he’s going to have to be more involved in the offense going forward.

He’s a stat-stuffing point guard who easily could have himself a triple-double if he makes one more 3-pointer, gets one more assist and a few more boards.

In two regular season games this year, Lowry averaged 16.5-6.5-12 and you’re buying low on a guy who is going to play major minutes. I’d be surprised if Lowry didn’t score more fantasy points on Sunday than he did in game 1 and he’s certainly got the potential to be one of the top 3 fantasy point scorers in the game.

Serge Ibaka (8k FD, 4.2k DK)

Wow, Ibaka is cheap! I was on him for game 1 because I didn’t think Gasol would play as many minutes as he did. The game theory move here is to go right back to him and hope that the Raptors give him more run in game 2 than they did on Thursday night.

Any number of things can happen to boost his minutes. Gasol can get hurt or in early foul trouble. Ibaka can come in the game and get hot shooting jumpers and force Nick Nurse to keep him in there longer. He’s just too cheap for a player with his fantasy skill set and you’d be wise to have some GPP exposure.

DeMarcus Cousins (9k FD, 5.4k DK)

This is a bold pick, but I think Boogie makes for a compelling GPP play. He was a chalky bust in lineups on Thursday after it was announced he was returning to court and he was only 6k on FanDuel.

He only played 8 minutes, but still scored 11 FD points and 9.5 Dk points in that short stretch. The Warriors badly need an inside presence, so I’m guessing he’ll earn more minutes in game 2 as long as he’s healthy and he’s an elite fantasy point per minute player.

Danny Green (6.5k FD, 5k DK)

Green is too cheap again for Game 2, and the fact that he played 29 minutes shows me that Coach Nurse wants to use him as an offensive threat and another perimeter defender against the Warriors small ball lineup. With a few made threes and steals/blocks and he’s going to hit value.

Final Thoughts

Game 2 should be another really fun one to watch and I expect it to be a physical, fast-paced, and close game. The Raptors are two-point favorites in this game and the O/U is only at 215, so Vegas expects it to be close and relatively low scoring for a GSW game.

If you’re playing showdowns on either site, it makes sense to make multiple lineups. Find a core of players you feel really good about and then mix and match the secondary players around them. On FanDuel, you can play the same 5 guys in different lineups and just rotate players in and out of the MVP, STAR, and PRO slots to be different.

Whatever you do, don’t play the exact same lineup that won contests in Game 1. Both teams are going to make adjustments and while the top plays are still the most likely to hit or exceed value, the GPP pivots from this article also have a high probability of outscoring some of the plays that went off in game 1.

Mix and match those chalky picks with the contrarian GPP picks to create dozens of unique lineups, and don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table to be different!

Thanks for taking the time to read my Finals Game 2 breakdown for showdown! Good luck in your contests! If you’re not already following me on Twitter, hit me up @ThunderDanDFS and make sure you are checking in here at FantasyCPR for the best in DFS content for all sports.