NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Pocono 400 – Cup Series from Pocono
By Matt Vecchio
Welcome to NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Pocono 400 from Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pa.! Today is back end of a NASCAR doubleheader this weekend from Pocono, as we saw the Xfinity series take center stage on Saturday but today the Cup series takes their turn.
This unique 2.5-mile triangular track presents one of the most difficult challenges of the entire race season because of the lay out it almost can run like a road course in some ways. The “Tricky Triangle” lives up to its name among drivers ready to tackle the three-corner layout.
As if Pocono wasn’t difficult enough on the drivers, the added change of the 2019 Cup Series rules package brings a new and unique dynamic to Sunday’s Pocono 400. With added downforce and lower horsepower, this combo has created a major unknown for drivers.
NASCAR DFS – Betting Odds
Kyle Busch (+275)
Kevin Harvick (+475)
Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
Brad Keselowski (+700)
Chase Elliott (+1000)
Joey Logano (+1000)
Denny Hamlin (+1200)
Clint Bowyer (+2000)
Kurt Busch (+2000)
Kyle Larson (+2000)
Ryan Blaney (+2000)
NASCAR DFS – Leaders of the Pack
Kyle Busch ($11,400)
Qualifying Position: 2nd
Kyle has led a total of 240 laps and has an average finish of 4.6 in his last 5 starts here at the “Tricky Triangle” and has wins in the last two July races here. Busch is the odds on favorite in this race and I have doubt he will be in the mix come the final lap on Sunday. I like Kyle’s price this week as I feel like I can comfortably fit him in with some other possible winners this week.
Brad Keselowski ($10,200)
Qualifying Position: 5th
Pocono is one of Keselowski’s favorite tracks based upon his recent history here. In the last seven races at Pocono, Keselowski has finished in the top 5 in six of those races. Keselowski led 10 laps in this event last year and finished fifth for the third consecutive year. The only time Keselowski didn’t finish in the top 5 in the last 7 Pocono races was last July where he finished 38th after an accident when he blew a right-rear tire in the final stage while contending for 12th. This week the #2 looks fast once again coming with an average 4th place standing in all practices this week. If you don’t think you can afford Busch, I am just as happy to roster Keselowski.
Chase Elliott ($9,900)
Qualifyong Position: 12th
Elliott did not have a top 10 car in practice this week but this has been the same the last few weeks and Chase has managed 4 straight top 5 finishes. Hendrick and the other Chevy’s have been getting faster every week and competing with the Ford’s and Toyota’s more often now and in my opinion Elliott is the best of them. Elliott has also finished in the top 10 in his last four starts at Pocono.
Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($10,500), Joey Logano ($9,500)
NASCAR DFS – Middle of the Pack
Ryan Blaney ($8,900)
Qualifying Position: 17th
Blaney has had a rough couple of weeks with no top 10’s since April 7th, but this week his car looks nice and fast. After final practice on Friday Blaney averaged an 8th place finish and he also has track history on his side as well. Blaney won the pole and finished 6th in this same race last year, his first Pocono race as a member of Team Penske, and Blaney does own a win here, he won the 2017 June race here. Blaney has finished 12th or better in five of his six career Pocono starts
Erik Jones ($8,600)
Qualifying Position: 4th
Jones has finished in the top 10 in three of his four starts at Pocono, including a third in this event in 2017. While Jones is working on a new contract currently with Joe Gibbs Racing, but for the time being he will work on earning his first win of 2019. Jones has finished in the top 10 in three of his first four starts at Pocono, including a third in this event in 2017.
Daniel Suarez ($7,900)
Qualifying Position: 9th
This play is more of a GPP play in my eyes, he will be low owned on Sunday but was a top 10 car overall in all practice sessions. People just don’t seem to play Suarez, but he is one of the most consistent drivers this season with his worst finish in 2019 being 18th (3 times). I love this play this week and will be locking Suarez in for a top 10 finish this week.
Other Options: Clint Bowyer ($9,100), William Byron ($7,600)
NASCAR DFS – Back of the Pack
Paul Menard ($7,100)
Qualifying Position: 14th
Like Suarez in the last section, Menard is one of those drivers who does not get rostered much. He is a typically a nice safe play if you have the salary to make him fit. Menard is a veteran driver with a lot of experience who generally stays out of trouble and finishes races.
Ryan Preece ($6,500)
Qualifying Position: 29th
Preece is my GPP play in this section, he is too volatile to be a cash game play in my opinion but he has the ability to pull out a top 15 if things break his way, but can also finish 35th and cost you points. This week Preece had a 20-25th place car in practice which would be a good finish if he can manage it.
David Ragan ($6,100)
Qualifying Position: 27th
Ragan picked up his second top 15 in the last 5 races last week in Charlotte and is another driver who will just run his race and stay out of trouble usually. There isn’t really much to tell you for Ragan other than he is cheap and will be a safe play that will help you fit in higher priced plays
Other Options: Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000), Bubba Wallace ($5,900), Corey Lajoie ($5,400)
NASCAR DFS – Place Differential Play
Martin Truex Jr. ($10, 900)
Qualifying Position: 20th
Last weeks Coca Cola 600 winner will start in the middle of the pack on Sunday but his car was a top 10 car in practice all week. Truex Jr. won this same event at Pocono last season, making it the second time he has won the even. Over the last 4 Pocono races(2017-2018) Truex has a 6.2 average finish here at Pocono, which ranks third among all driver
Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,800)
NASCAR DFS – Lineup Build
This week there is a good amount of value in the mid to upper low tier that I am interested in with Paul Menard and Daniel Suarez. When I look to the top-tier I like Martin Truex Jr. the most, but for salary purposes I need to go down to Chase Elliott. For your last two roster spots you’ll have $7,100 left per driver in salary.