DFS MLB: Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, 6/3

DFS MLB: Game by Game Breakdown – Monday 6/3

Happy Monday, DFS MLB players and welcome to my first ever game by game breakdown for this MLB season here at FantasyCPR. I usually write the MLB DFS Pitching Primer, but since we only have four games today, I thought it might be more helpful to break down each game for you with which pitchers and bats are in play.

It looks like one of the weirdest baseball schedules I can remember seeing in recent memory. There are four games total today, but the first game between the Cubs and Angels is at 4:05 and is only available in “all-day slates.” The 3-game main slate doesn’t lock until 9:40, which is the latest I think I’ve ever seen. That means you have all day and all evening to get these rosters right.

I am going to break down each game, including the early game, with my thoughts on the pitchers and hitters from both sides and how you might want to deploy them for you cash games and GPPs on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Just because they are 4 or 3-game slates today, it doesn’t mean there isn’t potential for profit. Small slates can be a lot of fun and sometimes getting the right pitcher or hitter that goes off for a big night is all you need to carry your lineup into the cash.

Let’s jump right into things by taking a look at the day game, that starts a full five and half hours before the other three!

DFS MLB: Angels vs. Cubs

Trevor Cahill (projected reliever) vs. Jon Lester (-160)

No Vegas O/U yet

It’s a shame this game isn’t on the main slate, because I think it has the potential to be a high scoring one. The pitching matchup is an interesting one, as the Angels have decided to open with Cam Bedrosian and then follow with Trevor Cahill, a guy who has been knocked around this season to the tune of an ERA near 7. Cahill is a sinkerball pitcher who just isn’t missing many bats this season and is hammered by lefties in particular.

The Cubs have some powerful left-handed bats like Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and even Jayson Heyward who I would be interested in here. And Kris Bryant is the one right-hander I would look at to complete a Cubs 4-man stack. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley a little, but not enough to keep a well-hit ball in the park this afternoon.

On the Angels’ side of this game, I would absolutely prioritize stacking against Jon Lester. That’s not because @2locksports forces all FantasyCPR employees to say that either. It’s mainly because I happen to think he stinks, and we are finally seeing regression catch up to him after his hot start. He’s allowed 16 ER in last three starts and watched his ERA climb from 1.45 to 3.59 in that stretch. And in my opinion, it’s not done climbing as his xFIP is up over 4.

The Angels’ bats are hot and they are coming off a 13-run outburst on Sunday against the Mariners. I’d anchor those Halo stacks with veteran Albert Pujols, who has moved up to third in the order against lefties and has 3 homers in his last 5 games, and 8 RBI in that stretch. The 1-2 punch of David Fletcher and Mike Trout are getting on base, stealing bases, and forcing pitchers to pitch to Pujols. My fourth piece of an Angels stack would be the outfield prospect Cesar Puello, who is hitting .454 with 2 homers since being called up last week. He should slot into the 5-hole in the order tonight.

Pitchers to consider: NONE

Bats to consider: Cubs lefties, Angels righties

DFS MLB: Dodgers vs. D-Backs

Walker Buehler (-140)  vs. Robbie Ray

8.5 Vegas IRT

We have the best pitching matchup on the slate here in Arizona tonight as the Dodgers youngster Walker Buehler takes on the hard-throwing D-Backs lefty Robbie Ray. Buehler is coming off a rough outing against the Mets last time out in which he surrendered 5 runs over 5 innings but had been rounding into form before that. Meanwhile, Robbie Ray continues to do what Robbie Ray does – fail to pitch deep into games by racking up huge pitch counts and walking hitters with mixed results as far as fantasy points are concerned.

If you want to pick on Buehler, then I’d stick to a few LHH in the D-Backs lineup and Eduardo Escobar is a guy who continues to be red hot at the plate. Ketel Marte is another switch hitter who will hit from the left side and Jarrod Dyson will likely lead off. This D-Backs 1-2-3 stack will be contrarian and has both power and great speed for some stolen base upside.

The Dodgers bats will probably be somewhat popular and I can get on board with picking on Ray with righties. If you haven’t noticed, I don’t care much for Ray and I look to attack him in DFS because he walks too hitters and gives up a bunch of hard contact. The Dodgers will likely throw out a cheap 1-2-3 stack of David Freese, Justin Turner, and Chris Taylor which I would target in cash games. If you’re stacking for GPPs, don’t forget to include Cody Bellinger because he is hitting everyone this year, lefties included. The other righties to look for a Kiki Hernadez, probably batting fifth, and rookie catcher Will Smith (no, not the Fresh Prince) who has been a cheap cash play on DK for the last week.

Pitchers to consider: Buehler (cash, GPP), Ray (GPP only)
Bats to consider: D-backs lefties, Dodgers righties

DFS MLB: Astros vs. Mariners

Corbin Martin (-110) vs. Wade LeBlanc (projected reliever)

9.5 Vegas IRT

This game has the highest implied total on the slate, and it’s pretty easy to see why. The Astros are throwing rookie Corbin Martin out there again even after he’s been lackluster in his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Mariners are doing the opener thing and then following with gas can Wade LeBlanc as their starter who is relieving.

My problem with stacking against either of these guys is that I don’t either of the offenses in this game either. Martin has been walking too many hitters and has given up 6 homers in his four starts, however, he also struck out 9 Rangers in his MLB debut and had great K numbers in the minors. Seattle’s offense has just been slumping for a while now after their torrid start in April. If you were going to attack Martin it should be with righties as he’s shown some reverse splits so far. Edwin Encarnacion is the one bat that stands out for me for the Mariners as a big-time home run threat. I actually kind of like Martin as an under the radar GPP play at pitcher.

The Astros bats are going to be popular as they have the highest IRT and face a lefty in LeBlanc. I have no problem penciling Alex Bregman and even Yuli Gurriel into cash games, but after that, I’m not sure I want to full stack the Stros. They’ve not been great since Springer, Altuve, and Diaz went down with injuries and while there a few other cheap right-handed options (White, Marisnick) to consider, I’d probably just go with a three-man stack of Bregman, Gurriel, and Robinson Chirinos (if he cracks the lineup).

Pitchers to consider: Martin (GPP only)
Bats to consider: Seattle righties (GPP only), Houston righties (cash/GPP)

DFS MLB: Padres vs. Phillies

Eric Lauer vs. Aaron Nola (-115)

7.5 Vegas IRT

Aaron Nola is going to be the chalk pitcher tonight and I don’t see any reason not to play him. He’s good against righties and the Padres have been horrible against RHP. The Padres have the lowest IRT on the slate and come into this game having lost their last two to the Miami Marlins. Nola is a whole 1000 dollars less than Buehler on FanDuel and there’s no way that I don’t play him in cash games and go way overweight on him in GPPs.

If you want a few Padres hitters to be contrarian then consider Franmil Reyes (a beast who can take any pitcher deep at any time), Eric Hosmer (been hitting much better lately and Nola’s weakness is lefties) and Josh Naylor (a lefty power prospect who’s been in the lineup lately and is cheap).

The Padres’ pitcher, Eric Lauer, will have his work cut out for him as the Phillies have a formidable lineup with some good RHH. Andrew McCutchen and Rhys Hoskins stand out as nice plays as both of them have been excellent at hitting lefties in their careers. The Phillies will probably roll out 7-8 righties in this lineup, in fact, with the other lefty being Bryce Harper. I have no problem with full 4 or 5-man Phillies’ stacks tonight, but just be warned that Lauer has not been that bad this year and he’s not a total gas can. J.T. Realmuto, Cesar Hernandez, and Jean Segura are all good contact hitters who I’d consider as secondary pieces of any Philly stack.

Pitchers to consider: Nola (cash, GPP), Lauer (GPP only)
Bats to consider: Phillies’ righties (cash/GPP)

DFS MLB: Final Thoughts

This is shaping up to a fun slate and while it may look there are some clear cut options on the surface, there’s certainly the potential to get leverage on the field in GPPs if you’re willing to go against the grain.

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Sure, lock in Nola and some Philly/Houston/Dodger bats in cash, but there are going to be a number of different viable roster constructions in GPPs tonight.

Baseball is a crazy game and the amount of variance we see on a daily basis proves that you can’t just lock in the easy plays every day and win MLB DFS. It’s a game that rewards a lot of hard work and research and those who are willing to dive deeper into stats, matchups, umpires, weather, and all the other variables are often rewarded.

I hope this little game by game preview helped you get your research started today, but I would implore you to follow up on reading it by digging into the numbers further. The amount of free content and statistics that are at your disposal right now is at an all-time high. There’s no reason you shouldn’t have bookmarked Rotogrinders, FanGraphs, and FantasyCPR by now if you are a serious MLB DFS player.

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS game by game breakdown! I’ll be back with the Pitching Primer tomorrow and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests!