MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – June 3 – Sleepless in Seattle
Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s MLB DFS Main Slate was all about pitching as the top 5 raw point plays were all starting pitchers, including Max Scherzer and Lucas Giolito who were 1-2 on the day, combining for over 80 fantasy points with 24 K’s between them. The cheap Twins stack paid off in a big way wrapped around those two pricey arms as they scored 9 runs as 4 of the top 20 hitters came from Minnesota on this slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Monday Pitching Breakdown:
We have one of the more, well, odd slates of the MLB DFS season with only a three game slate on tap for Monday night and what is even more unique is that the slate will not lock until 9:40 PM EST with all three games being West Coast contests.
On a three game slate like this, when playing tournaments I tend to factor in ownership more so than usual and am likely to play more game theory than I would normally.
With that said, the clear #1 arm and likely chalk SP1 is Aaron Nola ($18.8K) who gets a massive ballpark boost heading to San Diego and after striking out 26 batters in is last three starts, the recent trends suggest Nola is in an ideal spot here tonight. On the season Nola has a 26% K rate and only a 9% swinging strike rate which are both significant steps down from last year however the recent three game trend is spiking with a 33% K rate and a 13% swinging strike rate.
If Nola is the chalk SP1, I think the most popular pairing is going to be with Walker Buehler ($16.9K) in Arizona. Nola and Buehler rank 2nd and 3rd on the slate in K rate’s and swinging strike rates and with both arms being favored, despite being on the road, the fact they face teams with IRT’s under 4 means this will likely be a popular cash game pairing and GPP spot. The issue with Buehler is Dave Roberts being is manager, Buehler has failed to top 100 pitches in four straight starts and with hot weather in Arizona and the threat of any early hook, there is some risk here against a dangerous Arizona line-up.
So if Nola/Buehler are going to be chalky, the leverage for me is to simply go to the other side and take the opposing home pitchers – Robbie Ray ($17.7K) and Eric Lauer ($14.7K).
Ray is in the ultimate boom or bust GPP spot against the Dodgers – as his 30% K rate and 12.8% swinging strike rate are by FAR the top metrics on the slate but he also has to face a Dodgers line-up where every hitter in the top 6 has a .200+ ISO against LHP this season.
Lauer meanwhile, outside of blow up start in Coors Field, has been incredibly strong in recent outings with 2 or fewer ER in 6 of his last 7 starts and while everyone will focus on the ballpark boost for Nola, Lauer gets the same elite pitching environment in his home park.
Oh also – today, June 3 – happens to be Eric Lauer’s birthday so if you want to fade the home start birthday narrative, be my guest, but clearly you hate money.
All kidding aside, I think your pitching decision comes down to some combination of these four arms today and the beauty of this slate is that the pricing is soft enough where you can easily make any combination of this work.
Nola is the cash game SP1 and because of the recent form and opponent, he makes for a tough fade even in GPP’s. While I rarely like picking on the Dodgers, I think doubling up with Nola/Ray tonight is an interesting strategy for GPP’s as you are pairing the top two K arms on the slate and the pricing on FantasyDraft allows you to comfortably get both without sacrificing with our bats.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
I mentioned this already but my process of elimination, with 4 solid arms to utilize that is going to leave 2 clear arms on this slate we want to pick on and they happen to be in the same game as Corbin Martin and Wade LeBlanc face off against each other.
While Martin has the minor league pedigree to be successful, it has been a tough go of it so far at the Major League level as Martin has now failed to get past the 4th inning in three straight starts and has surrendered a whopping 6 home runs in only 16 innings of work. While the Seattle Mariners are in a bit of a free fall in the W-L column right now, this also happens to be a team that is second in the bigs in HR’s with 106 long balls so far in 2019.
Martin so far this season is giving up a .206 ISO to LHB and .436 ISO to RHB (obviously in small sample sizes) but his minor league numbers never hinted at this kind of start as he had a 29% K rate and 0.36 HR/9 rate at AAA before his call-up.
This Mariners stack has a nice combination of power and speed which could take advantage of Martin’s early season HR struggles but also his double-digit walk rate and low swinging strike rate which means the potential for lots of contact and base runners.
The three man trio of Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Vogelbach and Mitch Haniger gives you three bats with a .240+ ISO mark against RHP this season and with Kyle Seager ($6.6K) back in the line-up at this price point, the pricing on this Mariners stack becomes a very viable cost-effective place to build around if you want to get both Nola and Ray in your line-ups tonight.
Martin is relying on his fastball nearly 65% of the time at the ML level and while the 95 MPH velocity may have worked in the minors, it is clearly not translating to the bigs as so far hitters are squaring it up to the tune of a .385 ISO and the Mariners have six hitters in their projected line-up that have a .200+ ISO mark against that pitch type and velocity. A full 1-6 Mariners stack is a spot where I think you can plant your flag tonight and hope that the HR ball continues to fly!
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – the sample lineup shown below is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
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SP: Aaron Nola
SP: Robbie Ray
IF: Kyle Seager
IF: Daniel Vogelbach
IF: Edwin Encarnacion
OF: Mallex Smith
OF: Mitch Haniger
OF: Domingo Santana
UTIL: Alex Bregman
UTIL: Christian Walker
Slate Overview: Stepping back and seeing where I landed on this slate – the breakdown, feels pretty simple. I have the two arms with the highest K potential based on their season long metrics and recent trends and I locked in on an offense who takes on a rookie pitcher with the highest SIERA on the slate.
There is always some merit to simply picking on the worst arm on the slate and it is hard to argue that Corbin Martin is not the one to pick on here with guys like Nola, Ray and Buehler on the hill and Lauer and LeBlanc who have actually been sneaky solid all year. The added benefit, the pricing on the Mariners stack is cheap enough where you can get any arms you want and still grab some high-powered one offs like Alex Bregman in this sample build.
Enjoy this whacky little three gamer – be smart with your bankroll but take some chances in GPP’s and factor in ownership and game theory a bit more than maybe you normally would.
Good luck!
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