2019 NFL season thoughts, power rankings and more
As we enter June, the 2019 season is only three months away. Here are 10 things I’m looking forward to seeing when the ball is kicked off.
The 2019 NFL regular season starts in less than 100 days. Incredibly, most teams are only seven weeks away from training camp. Once the dorms begin filling up, the chase for the Super Bowl is in full swing.
This week, I’m going to run down 10 things I’m excited to watch for this season.
1. Are the Browns actually going to live up to the hype?
The Browns went 0-16 in 2017. Halfway through 2018, Hue Jackson was still a national punchline. Fast forward eight months, and the Cleveland Browns are almost universally expected to host a playoff game come January.
Cleveland’s roster is talented throughout. General Manager John Dorsey did a terrific job adding to his nucleus this offseason with receiver Odell Beckham Jr., defensive linemen Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon, and rookie cornerback Greedy Williams. Dorsey also brought in running back Kareem Hunt, who will serve an eight-game suspension for kicking a 19-year-old woman in February 2018, which was caught on video tape.
Now, the Browns have something they haven’t had since 1995. Expectations. If Cleveland doesn’t reach the playoffs, it will be a colossal disappointment.
The question here is this: When things become tough, who steps up? Freddie Kitchens is a first-time head coach. Many of the stars — Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Denzel Ward, David Njoku, Myles Garrett, Richardson, Vernon and Beckham among others — have never won anything at the NFL level. Someone needs to be the calming influence who can guide and cajole. Given them some of them, including Beckham, didn’t show up for the offseason program, being that influence could be difficult.
2. Will the Bears avoid regression and be an NFC power?
Last year, it was the Jacksonville Jaguars crashing back to irrelevancy. This year, the Bears are a popular pick to be that team.
Why? It’s very tough for a defense to be dominant for two straight years. Just ask the aforementioned Jaguars or the 2015 Denver Broncos. With the losses of slot corner Bryce Callahan and safety Adrian Amos in free agency, coupled by coordinator Vic Fangio bolting for the head coaching job in Denver, there are warning signs.
Additionally, can Mitchell Trubisky become a quality quarterback? In his second season, Trubisky made strides, throwing for 3,223 yards and 24 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. If the Bears are going to be a true Super Bowl contender, he’ll need to improve in the first two categories.
Chicago has an excellent head coach in Matt Nagy and a fierce pass rush. But there are questions surrounding whether last season was a high-water mark for this crew.
3. Can Patrick Mahomes repeat as MVP?
The last time we had a repeat MVP it was Peyton Manning in 2008 and ’09. Before that, Brett Favre in 1995 and ’96. In short, Mahomes wouldn’t be making history by turning the trick in consecutive years, but it’s awfully difficult.
Mahomes has a couple factors working against him. He’s likely to be without wide receiver Tyreek Hill for an extended period of time. He’s also likely to have a better defense backing him, which means less need to score 40 points on a weekly basis.
Conversely, Mahomes has an incredible amount of talent both within and around him. The Chiefs have the game’s best attack featuring Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Damian Williams and a terrific offensive line. Factor in rookie receiver Mecole Hardman and a brilliant tactician in head coach Andy Reid, and Mahomes has all the weapons any MVP hopeful could ask for.
4. Who has the better season: Josh Rosen or Kyler Murray?
Arizona Cardinals General Manager Steve Keim is sweating this out something fierce.
If Rosen plays really well for the Miami Dolphins, and Kyler Murray struggles mightily, Keim might as well start packing boxes. Conversely, all the heat on his neck will be erased if Murray plays like a stud under first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury.
Rosen and Murray are both on rebuilding teams in markets that won’t exactly be teeming with anticipation. There’s little reason to expect huge numbers, but from Arizona’s standpoint, Murray can’t be a disaster. If he is, everybody in the organization wears considerable egg.
As for the Dolphins, how good does Rosen have to play for General Manager Chris Grier to believe he’s the future? Miami has a real shot at the No. 1 overall pick next April and the chance to draft Tua Tagovailoa out of Alabama or Justin Herbert from Oregon. What’s the bar for Rosen to exceed to avoid being replaced by the top selection for the second consecutive year?
5. What the hell are the Raiders?
No team is more fascinating than the Oakland Raiders. In a single offseason, they added Antonio Brown, Vontaze Burfict and Richie Incognito. They also have Jon Gruden as the head coach and the embattled Derek Carr under center. If things go bad, they are going to go very bad.
General Manager Mike Mayock is basically conducting a science experiment with this group. Maybe that kind of radical thinking pushes the Raiders to compete with the Chiefs and Chargers. Maybe they go 3-13. All things are possible, although the latter is more likely than the former.
6. Which AFC East team is the surprise playoff contender?
I believe either the New York Jets or Buffalo Bills will push for the playoffs. The two matchups between the teams might well determine which one it is.
Buffalo and New York were both active in free agency. The Bills had a terrific draft and have a good head coach in Sean McDermott. The Jets have been a laughingstock with the Mike Maccagnan-Adam Gase debacle, but don’t lose sight of the big picture. The roster has talent and Sam Darnold looked like an emerging star over the final quarter of last season.
Neither Buffalo nor New York will challenge for the AFC East crown, but either could go 9-7 and sneak in as the sixth seed.
7. How long until we see Daniel Jones, and does he prove everyone wrong?
Barring a miracle, the New York Giants will be terrible. What do terrible teams do with aging quarterbacks? If possible, they bench them for a younger alternative.
New York should fit this mold, with Eli Manning eventually giving way to Daniel Jones. The only question is when does Jones start for the first time? I’ll guess Week 7. The week prior, the Giants will play Thursday night in Foxborough. After getting shellacked, they’ll have a mini-bye and then face the Cardinals at home. No better team than Arizona to put Jones into the fray against.
If New York is a bottom feeder, there’s no reason to not play Jones and let him gain valuable experience.
8. Is this finally the year for San Francisco to make a move?
We’ve been hearing for three years the 49ers are in terrific hands between the duo of General Manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan. We’re yet to see any proof.
The 49ers expect to have quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo fully healthy for camp and beyond, and the roster is once again well-stocked with high draft picks including edge rusher Nick Bosa and wide receiver Deebo Samuel. With the Cardinals rebuilding and the Seattle Seahawks retooling, there’s no excuse for San Francisco to not challenge for second place in the NFC West and a wild card spot.
If that doesn’t happen in 2019, the seats under Lynch and Shanahan will be considerably warmer come December … even with their respective six-year contracts.
9. How well does Cam Newton’s shoulder hold up?
In January, Newton underwent a second shoulder surgery in less than two years. Only this week did he start throwing an NFL-sized football. While the team’s timetable for Newton remains a return in camp and being under center for Week 1, there’s reason for serious doubt.
When Andrew Luck went through a similar process, he missed an entire season before returning in 2018. Can Newton prove to be more durable and put in a full campaign, or will his shoulder wear down throughout camp and the regular season? If it does, Carolina was prescient for taking a developmental quarterback in the third round with Will Grier.
10. Does Bruce Arians pull his greatest trick yet and fix Jameis Winston?
Arians has been a central figure in the development of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck. Now it’s Winston’s turn.
Winston is entering the final year of his rookie deal and has provided us with more questions than answers. In four seasons, he’s never reached the playoffs and amassed a whopping 80 turnovers against 88 touchdown passes. If he’s going to be viable as a starter, let alone an elite one, that ratio must improve dramatically.
Arians is 66 years old. It stands to reason he won’t coach for more than a few more seasons. His last trick could be his most impressive if Arians can turn Winston’s career around.
Power rankings
Top 10 quarterbacks entering 2019
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
4. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
7. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
10. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Quotable
"“He’s such a cool guy. He talks to everybody in the locker room. Previous quarterbacks didn’t really do [that] much. They were just [about] being there on the field [and] getting the job done. We [would] see each other walking through the halls [and they] wouldn’t even acknowledge us, you know?”"
– Denver Broncos running back Devontae Booker on Joe Flacco’s demeanor
Quite the statement from Booker. Not so much about Flacco’s ability to be a decent teammate, but more about Case Keenum, who was traded this offseason to the Washington Redskins.
It’s been a rough three years in Denver since Peyton Manning retired. There has been lackluster play, losing seasons and sniping from the defense about a punchless offense. We’ll see if that changes with Flacco under center.
Podcast
https://twitter.com/StackingTheBox/status/1134143411479617536
Mailbag
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Random stat
The Cincinnati Bengals hold the longest current drought without a playoff win, starting in 1991.
However, of the league’s original 26 franchises, 13 have endured at least 20 consecutive seasons without a playoff win. Incredibly, the Detroit Lions (1958-90 and 1992-present), Chiefs (1970-90 and 1994-2014) and Arizona Cardinals (1926-46 and 1948-97) have gone through two such streaks.
Info learned this week
1. NFL’s 18-game schedule has been, and will remain, a pipe dream
When the current Collective Bargaining Agreement runs out following the 2020 season, both the NFL and NFLPA will have plenty of demands for the other side.
The players union has long wanted marijuana to be removed from the banned substance list. It also would like to see Commissioner Roger Goodell removed from his role of judge, jury and executioner for all matters of suspension. Those two wishes will almost certainly be granted.
In response, the NFL will want an 18-game season. For that to happen, the concessions from ownership would likely have to include fully-guaranteed contracts, larger rosters and a bigger portion of the overall revenue. Good luck.
The league hasn’t expanded the season since 1978, when it went from 14 to 16 games. In return, two preseason games were knocked off the schedule, giving us the current format. Something similar would be done again, limiting the preseason to a pair of contests before playing an 18-game regular season.
The idea from owners and the NFL brass is twofold. First, the season could be extended to President’s Day weekend, allowing for the Super Bowl to essentially become a national holiday. Second, more revenue from ticket, in-stadium purchases and TV deals.
All of it sounds great, save for the players not wanting any part of it. To compensate them, the owners would need to make drastic offers, something they’ve never wanted to do.
2. McCoy taking time to make decision on next team
Gerald McCoy isn’t rushing the most important choice of his career.
After spending nine seasons in Tampa Bay and never once reaching the postseason, McCoy is reportedly interested in joining either the Baltimore Ravens, Browns or Panthers. If he wants to win, it appears Cleveland is the best bet, with Baltimore and Carolina trailing significantly.
McCoy, 31, is a six-time Pro Bowler who has struggled to stay healthy. He’s only played a full regular season twice, the last time being 2013. However entering the second stage of his career, McCoy could be used as a rotational piece, saving his heaviest workload for January.
The Buccaneers released McCoy due to a salary cap crunch that made his $13 million unpalatable, not because his skills have diminished.
3. Nick Foles bravely soldiers on after loss of child
On Friday, Nick Foles was at practice with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Only days before, Foles and his wife, Tori, dealt with the tragedy of a miscarriage.
In the wake of it all, Nick told reporters he was urged by Tori to return to practice.
While sobering experiences such as this put football into perspective, there’s another message. Foles just lost a child, and yet he’s working. He’s leading. He’s providing an example for his teammates. He’s also making it much harder for another player to not give full effort, to not attend OTAs.
In the grand scheme of life, Foles has much bigger concerns. He must be a loving husband and will likely turn to his faith in this time of crisis. As for football, though, there’s no mistaking how dedicated Foles is to the team.
Remember this week in Jacksonville. It could go a long way come autumn.
4. Gronk says don’t expect comeback
The Patriots are trying to reach their fourth consecutive Super Bowl this year. Rob Gronkowski won’t be part of that journey.
On Sunday, Gronkowski reiterated that he’s done with football, saying you can put the rumors to rest about a return. At 30 years old, the five-time Pro Bowler is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and has a trio of Super Bowl rings. There’s nothing left to accomplish, and since Gronkowski has been notoriously good with his finances, what’s the incentive to come back?
Maybe New England struggles without him and Tom Brady gets his buddy to play for a few months come winter. Maybe Gronkowski gets the itch on his own.
Still, remember this time last year, coach Bill Belichick was trying to trade Gronkowski to the Lions. It hasn’t always been easy for that duo at Patriot Place. It’s more likely than not that Gronk has spiked his last football on an NFL Sunday.
5. Quarterbacks chugging beer is all the rage
Yup, welcome to the offseason.
First, it was Aaron Rodgers trying to chug a beer court side at a Milwaukee Bucks game. While watching Rodgers, Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford slammed down a pint at a restaurant. Then, over the weekend, we saw Patrick Mahomes get down to business at Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final in St. Louis. Finally, it was Bills’ signal-caller Josh Allen tipping a beer back before stepping to the plate in a softball game.
What does it mean? Nothing really, but it’s fun to see finely-tuned, often buttoned-up athletes having some fun. Makes them relateable.
History lesson
In 1982, the NFL played its shortest season in history due to a work stoppage. The campaign was only nine games, but the playoffs were expanded to make everything more interesting. However, they weren’t known as the playoffs that year for the first and only time. The postseason was called the Super Bowl Tournament.
Perhaps some clubs should be very thankful the playoff field was expanded from 10 to 16 teams. If not, the Green Bay Packers would have had a playoff drought of 21 years (1972-93). It was also the only appearance for the Cardinals (spanning St. Louis, Phoenix and Arizona) from 1976-98.
In the end, the year would be remembered for John Riggins and the Washington Redskins, who defeated the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XVII.
Parting shot
The most impactful move nobody is talking about this offseason? Ryan Tannehill.
The Tennessee Titans traded for Tannehill in March, giving them a top-end backup quarterback to sit behind Marcus Mariota. Tannehill, 30, was a capable starter with the Miami Dolphins, throwing for 4,000 yards in a season twice.
In four seasons, Mariota has never hit the 3,500-yard plateau, nor has he played 16 games. Last year, the Titans missed the playoffs by a single game, with Mariota only starting 13 contests. If Tannehill was the insurance plan instead of Blaine Gabbert, perhaps Tennessee would have been in the postseason.
Finally, don’t be surprised if Tannehill is starting at some point in 2019. Mariota has alternated between being injured and ineffective throughout his time with the Titans. With only one year left on Mariota’s contract, Tennessee’s commitment to him is tenuous at best.