MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday 6/4 – Leanin’ on Stephen

MLB DFS Pitching: Tuesday, 6/4

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

Last night was one of the weirdest small slates that I can remember and the one sure thing that everyone knew about (Aaron Nola) ended up being far from that. Even at major chalk ownership, having too much Nola sunk me on FanDuel and not many runs were scored by anyone in any of the games. Walker Buehler dazzled with 11 strikeouts in 8 innings, but my main exposure to him was on DraftKings.

Tonight we have yet another huge 15-game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings that locks at 7:05. There are 30 pitchers taking the mound tonight and I’m going to narrow my player pool down to my favorite six pitchers.  I’ll make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests and try to give you an idea of how I am going to approach roster construction tonight.

Let’s start by looking at all the match-ups first!

MLB DFS Pitching: First Look

Here are tonight’s match-ups. The home pitcher is listed second and the Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis when available. Remember that some pitchers have extremely large home/road splits.  Vegas lines and implied run totals can be tricky to navigate, but they are certainly a great place to start your DFS research as well.

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Stephen Strasburg (-250)

Max Fried (-155) vs. Steven Brault

Masahiro Tanaka (-165) vs. Clayton Richard

Devin Smeltzer vs. Shane Bieber (-135)

Blake Snell (-220) vs. Ryan Carpenter

Madison Bumgarner vs. Noah Syndergaard (-140)

Pablo Lopez vs. Chase Anderson (-175)

Dylan Bundy vs. Drew Smyly (-115)

Jeff Hoffman vs. Kyle Hendricks (-190)

Eduardo Rodriguez (-170) vs. Glenn Sparkman

Luis Castillo (-110) vs. Genesis Cabrera

Hyun-Jin Ryu (-190) vs. Taylor Clarke

Frankie Montas vs. Griffin Canning (-125)

Wade Miley vs Andrew Moore

Jerad Eickhoff vs. Chris Paddack (-160)

Now let’s see who is the safest bet for your cash games, with my “cash game ace.”

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Stephen Strasburg (11.5k both sites) vs. Chicago White Sox

Strasburg is expensive tonight, but for good reason. He checks every box that we are looking for when it comes to a cash game pitcher.

1. He’s a massive home favorite.
2. He comes into this game in great form, having allowed more than 3 earned runs just once in last 8 outings and pitching deep into his last three games going 7 or 8  innings in each.
3. He has great strikeout numbers (31%) and a favorable match-up against a high strikeout team (White Sox – 26%).

When you also consider that the White Sox will lose their DH as they come to a National league stadium, that’s just icing on the cake. Strasburg has been so consistent this season and for me, he offers the highest floor and the lowest amount of risk.

There are some other really good options tonight that are cheaper that I’ll consider for tournaments, but I’ll continue to follow the “pay up in cash” conventional wisdom tonight by rostering Strasburg in my cash games.

There’s one other expensive pitcher that merits consideration for tournaments, however, so let’s see who that is before we take a look at our value arms.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Blake Snell (11k both sites) @ Detroit

I want some Blake Snell tonight, I have to have some in this spot. Our FantasyCPR’s own @MikeMarteny calls him “Snellzilla” and the Detroit Tigers might be the unfortunate citizens of Tokyo tonight.

In all seriousness, Snell has just been outstanding this year and while Strasburg’s match-up is good, you could argue that Snell’s is just as good or even better.

He’ll face a Tigers lineup that is one of the worst in the majors in wOBA and ISO rates and carries a 26% K rate of their own against left-handed pitching. Snell’s 34% K rate is the highest of any pitcher on the slate, and that’s something you shouldn’t ignore.

Don’t worry about an all right-handed lineup from Detroit, because Snell has been mowing down righties all season. His 19% swinging strike rate is just amazing and shows us his massive strikeout potential on any given night.

He’s coming off a few good, but boring starts so perhaps we can get him at lower ownership tonight consider many DFS players are continuing to pay down for pitching in tournaments. I’m okay with paying down but don’t ignore the fact that Strasburg and Snell both have slate-breaking 70+ FD point potential.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Griffin Canning (8k FD, 8.5k DK) vs. Oakland

Canning is one of man crushes this season (as is his mound opponent, Frankie Montas, who sadly will not be featured today), I’ve made no secret about that. But you’re starting to see why as he’s beginning to string together a number of quality starts and show some consistency as a major league starter.

It’s taken him a month to settle in and adjust, but Canning has looked great over his last three starts, allowing two earned runs over his last 18 innings. He’s struck out 15 while walking only three batters and allowing 9 hits.

His box score may not look as exciting as Blake Snell‘s with the modest strikeout numbers, but he’s definitely still missing bats and showing some potentially elite ability to miss bats. His 15% swinging strike rate suggests he has a 8-10 strikeout game coming at any time.

Tonight the match-up intrigues me as he faces Oakland for the second straight start. He was very effective against them last week when he worked six solid innings, striking out 5 and allowing only one run, but didn’t get the win. I know some people avoid using pitchers against the same team two times in a row, but I’m not one of those people.

He gets a mainly all right-handed Athletics team and is a home favorite. At this price, I’ll load up on Canning in tournaments with the expectation of another efficient, quality start and hopefully a win this time.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Max Fried (8.6k FD, 7.8k DK) @ Pittsburgh

Fried is the first of three cheap lefties that I have a ton of interest in tonight and the cheapest of any of them on DraftKings. He’s probably going to be my SP2 in cash games at that price and I think he’s the safest of my “cheap” pitchers tonight.

The numbers won’t jump off the page at you today, but Fried is having an excellent season for the Braves. His most recent start against the Nats in which he allowed four earned runs is really the outlier this season for Fried as he’s been consistently putting up quality starts since entering the Braves rotation.

Fried has a few things working for him tonight, and the first one is his match-up with the Pirates, a team that is near and dear to my heart, but also a team that just stinks against left-handed pitching. Fried is not a big-time strikeout pitcher, but his 55% ground-ball rate is the third highest on the slate.

When you add in a positive park factor (PNC park’s spacious left and center field) and a good offense behind him that should provide run support, I think it all adds up to a solid outing for Fried. Hopefully, he can pitch through six innings to qualify for a QS (pitching deep into games has not been his strength) in addition to the win tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Wade Miley (7.8k FD, 8.2k DK) @ Seattle

I’m entirely convinced that the Astros pitching coaches can fix any pitcher at this point. I watched them transform former Pirates Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole into all-stars. They’ve made an aging Justin Verlander even better in his mid-30’s and turned a former reliever Brad Peacock into an effective starter.

And now they’ve made Wade Miley a strikeout pitcher. Yes, the same Wade Miley that was gas can just two years ago, the Wade Miley we used to stack righties against every fifth day is now a, dare I say it, really good pitcher.

The numbers back it up as Miley has been a steady arm in the Houston rotation all season long, allowing more than 3 earned runs just once this season. He has changed his pitching repertoire to include a cutter and stopped throwing as many breaking balls.

He doesn’t throw hard, but what he has learned how to do is locate his pitches and use them effectively. It’s really the same formula followed by other breakout pitchers like my favorite guy, Mike Minor.

In today’s MLB, you don’t need to throw 98 MPH to strike guys out, hitters are striking themselves out half the time by swinging for the fences. Seattle’s K rate is up over 25% and they have struck out a whopping 82 times over their last 8 games!

Miley has been increasing his strikeouts lately, too, striking out 17 over his last two starts. The potential for a big outing is there for Miley tonight, and he’s still a name that’s not sexy in DFS so I doubt he’ll carry anywhere near the ownership that he should in tournaments.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Devin Smeltzer (8.3k FD, 7.8k DK) @ Cleveland

Smeltzer is making only his second MLB start tonight but dazzled in his debut a little over a week ago when he struck out 7 Brewers in six scoreless innings. He got priced up by the sites pretty quickly and he could be popular tonight based on his game log, but I’m still willing to take a shot on him based on a few things.

1. He had excellent numbers all through the minors until he got to AAA. He struggled to adjust to AAA hitters which is what kept me off him in his debut, but his first outing shows that those four AAA starts may have been a bit of an aberration. He’s got excellent strikeout numbers in his minor league career.
2. He’s facing a Cleveland team that is mired in a massive slump and has been dominated by left-handed pitching for most of the season.

With a lot of good, more reliable options on a 15-game slate, I won’t consider this talented youngster in cash, but he sure looks like an appealing GPP option and maybe I’m wrong about ownership.

Maybe players will avoid him and look to other more proven commodities, but I want some shares of Smeltzer in case he handles the Indians with as much ease as he dispatched the Brewers.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not although tonight I’m making the case for saving a few hundred bucks in cap with Peacock.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Strasburg-Friedi, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Smeltzer-Miley in order to save some salary for bats.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher. It’s tempting when some jerk writes up six pitchers to try to play them all, but use your own research and the trusty ol’ gut to go with who you like best.

Cash Rankings

1. Strasburg
2. Snell
3. Fried
4. Miley

GPP Rankings

1. Snell
2. Canning
3. Smeltzer
4. Miley

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck