FO: Federer-Nadal rumble XXXIX set, but there are many reasons Fed has a chance (even if slim)
Tennis fans prayed for a marquee matchup of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer at the French Open. And the tennis gods answered, setting up the semifinal hoped for, and what will be considered the real “final” of the tournament.
Tennis history is on the line once again at Roland Garros. And as usual with it, it includes the names Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, set to battle once again for bout number 39. Nadal is gunning for a baker’s dozen titles, and his 18th slam win.
Federer is hoping to extend his lead to a cool 21 and lock in a double Roland Garros victory.
Both men are the titans in their sport and any chance to see the two legends play against each other is a treasured spectacle.
Rafa Nadal is the absolute, clear favorite in this instance. History, statistics, and his performance throughout the French Open fortnight so far are all on his side.
His vintage display has barely shown any chinks in the armor, his trashing of Kei Nishikori in the quarters– 6-1, 6-1, 6-3– just one example of many. Once the world No. 2 gets to this point at the French– the semis– he never loses.
Federer’s made five finals, and only won once, against Robin Soderling. The other four? They were all lost to the Majorcan who owns an unprecedented 11 of them.
Their head-to-head statistics are tipped in the Spaniard’s favor, with most of the triumphs having taken place on clay, 23 to Fed’s 15.
Does Federer even stand a chance?
Of course he does. And here is why.
Federer’s won their last exchanges
Roger Federer has changed his game since his resurgence in 2017. He retooled his backhand, developed a response to Nadal’s punishing lefty game, and adopted a larger racquet to absorb that game.
The Swiss employed these to his advantage, culminating in decisive victories over his great rival, most importantly at the 2017 Australian Open. This flipped the script, continuing to Indian Wells, Miami, and Shanghai Masters tournaments all that same year.
Including their clash in Basil in 2015, the 37 year-old has won the last five exchanges in a row.
Of course, these have all been on hard courts, much different from the surface owned by the “king of clay.”
However, Federer’s improved their rivalry stats on all surfaces but that. And the recent victories will be etched in his memory and might just give him an extra confidence boost to believe he can transfer that kind of success to Roland Garros.
Federer’s game is much different than the last time they met on clay
Federer defeated the 11-time Roland Garros winner a decade ago, in Madrid, but Nadal won their last clay battle at the 2013 Rome Masters event, among the 13 wins he has over his Swiss rival.
The Roger Federer that Rafael Nadal will face on Friday will be a different opponent, however. During their testy interchanges in 2005-08 and and their last RG match in 2011, Federer didn’t have an answer for Nadal’s top-spinning, left-handed pounding game.
It irritated him, but mostly left him confounded, as it has most of those who face Nadal across the net at the French.
However, Federer is looking to solve this puzzle, one last time.
“Roger has clearly decided that he doesn’t want to play Nadal the way he used to play him, which means ‘I’m going to miss before you get a chance to get a rhythm’,” seven-time slam champ Mats Wilander said.
“That’s the key. With Roger, he’s so dominant that he never had to play in a way to make the other guys worse, now he’s figured out how to make Nadal’s game worse.”
He will also be facing Nadal for the first time on clay with the new racquet, which helped so much recently in their face-offs.
Federer’s proved himself returning back to clay
The 21-slam champion owns 11 clay titles, and though it is his least successful surface, he was once considered the second best clay court player earlier in his career.
There’s also something to be said for pushing through the biggest clay court grand slam after having stayed away for three years. Federer’s playing as if he never left.
Unlike Nadal and Djokovic, he arrived at Roland Garros without a warm-up clay title this year, although he progressed through to the quarters at both Madrid and Rome.
He’s displayed an innovative fight since arriving in Paris, only dropping one set, to his compatriot Stan Wawrinka in a tough quarterfinal, 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4.
“Roger came back on clay because he’s a player who plays well on all surfaces and on clay he has good chances of winning,” said Nadal after his quarterfinal win over Nishikori.
“One thing is that he feels physically ready. He’s coming back because he wants to do so. And if he feels in good shape physically, well, he should not leave out a main part of the season.”
Federer knows that all Roland Garros highways lead to Nadal.
“If I came back to play on clay, it must have been to play Rafa,” Federer said during his post-quarterfinal match press conference.
Every time these two meet is a gift to fans
At ages 37 and 33 (Nadal having had his birthday on Monday), fans know that any exchange between these two titans is few and far between.
They are closer to retirement age than anything, and although they are still dominating, a time will come soon when they exit the tennis stage they have contributed so much to. Any opportunity to watch them should be savored.
“Having Roger in the semi-finals is an extra thing,” admitted the defending champion Nadal, according to Yahoo.
“We shared the most important moments of our careers together on court facing each other.
“So it’s another episode of this, and I’m happy and excited. It will be a special moment, and let’s try to be ready for it.”
Roger Federer is hoping he will be able to defy the odds on Friday.
“Like against any player, there is always a chance,” Federer said. “Otherwise nobody will be in the stadium to watch, because everybody already knows the result in advance.”
There’s always a chance, if however slim.
The French Open semifinal between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will take place on Friday, June 7, 2019, viewable on both Tennis Channel and NBC.