MLB Daily Fantasy GPP Plays (FanDuel): Friday, June 7th
By Joe Metz
Welcome to my first edition of the MLB Daily Fantasy GPP plays, where I will help you navigate through the best plays at each position to build your large-field tournament lineups and leverage ownership on the field!
While I typically write MLB Daily Fantasy Stack articles, I have recently started to shift my approach to MLB DFS towards a GPP-oriented strategy. Cash games have been, well, frustrating this season. Whether it be getting burned by a 45% Derek Dietrich triple-dong or paying up for the prime pitcher to chase the ownership and getting less than 2x value on them, it can be frustrating.
In large-field GPPs, you have the advantage of not having to worry about chasing high ownership, because it is the low ownership that you can leverage and use to jump the field.
With that said, I will be structuring this article around the plays that I expect to be lower owned that may carry a bit more risk, but carry a heap of upside that can help you jump the field.
We have a 14-game main slate on FanDuel, so I will run through a pair of options at each of the pitcher, C/1B, 2B, 3B, SS and OF positions.
Let’s get to it!
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP Pitcher
Andrew Heaney | LAA | $9,400
While he only has two starts under his belt this season, Heaney has been everything the Angels had hoped for. With all of the attention likely on Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom tonight, Heaney could go overlooked in a matchup against the Mariners.
The Mariners have really cooled off this season and have been brutal against lefties, posting a 26.1% team strikeout rate. Tim Beckham, Domingo Santana and Mitch Haniger all post K rates of 29% or higher, packing this matchup with a ton of upside for Heaney, who’s posted a 43.9% strikeout rate through his first two starts, a massive bump from his 24% rate in 2018.
His fly ball rate (63.6%) and hard-contact rate (54.5%) through his two starts raise some concern, but the fact that the Mariners have posted a lowly 28.3% hard-contact rate against lefties should bury some of the concern. On top of that, his 0.279 xwOBA in this matchup is icing on the cake.
Heaney has as much upside as anyone on this slate and while the risk is a bit higher considering his batted-ball profile early in the season, he should come at minimal ownership, making him a prime GPP target.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Secondary GPP Pitcher
Domingo German | NYY | $8,100
If you don’t feel comfortable forking up over $9,000 for Heaney, Domingo German possess almost as much upside for $1,300 cheaper.
German has built off of his impressive 2018, posting a 26.6% strikeout rate and lowering his walk rate to 6.7% and lowering his xFIP from 3.94 to 3.75. On top of that, he’s held both lefties and righties to wOBAs under 0.291.
The one knock so far this season has been his inability to pitch deep into games, as he’s only passed 5 IP once in his last 5 starts. Even with that being the case, he’s recorded at least 5 strikeouts in each of those 5 outings and most recently punching out 8 Red Sox in only 3.2 IP.
The Indians are a much more attractive matchup than the Red Sox, posting only a 0.301 wOBA and 0.154 ISO against righties this season with a wRC+ of 83 and team batting average of 0.230. Their implied total of 4.4 should be high enough to keep the masses away when they’re looking to pay down, making this a nice leverage opportunity with a ton of upside.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP C/1B
Freddie Freeman | ATL | $4,400
Freeman, and the Braves in general, are typically an offense that goes overlooked in DFS, regardless of how much firepower they carry and I fully expect the masses to see a matchup like Max Muncy against Jeff Samardzija and opt for the $700 savings. While I don’t have an issue with that strategy, if you want to gain some leverage, Freeman is your man.
So far this season, he’s posted a 0.398 wOBA and 0.254 ISO against righties and has tagged Urena throughout his career for 9 hits in 23 ABs, with 3 leaving the yard. While I advise against relying strictly on a 23 AB sample size, Freeman has the numbers to back it up and this is a trend we could see tonight given Urena’s 44.6% hard-contact rate to lefties.
Howie Kendrick | WAS | $3,300
Kendrick has had an impressive season, but he’s absolutely brutalized lefties. On the season, he’s posted a 0.436 wOBA, 0.261 ISO and a 41% hard-contact rate against them and has massive RBI opportunity with Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto batting in front of him.
His matchup, Nick Margevicius, is a reverse splits pitcher and has only allowed a 0.323 wOBA against righties this season, but I’m more than willing to put my stock in the man at the plate for such a cheap price. While his wOBA is low, his walk rate against righties is 6% higher than it is against lefties and he still allows a 35.6% hard-contact rate.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP 2B
Brandon Lowe | TAM | $3,500
Brandon Lowe has taken the AL by storm in his first full season and comes into a matchup with Rick Porcello carrying a heap of upside. On the season, Lowe holds the highest Barrel% on the team (14.3%) while also posting a 44.4% hard% and an average EV of 91.1 mph, showing that he’s been tearing the cover off of the ball.
Porcello on the other hand has given up a 0.335 wOBA to lefties with a 6.05 xFIP and only a 14.8% walk rate. On top of that, his 41.6% fly ball rate bodes horrible when you compare it to Lowe’s elite 0.255 ISO against righties, putting the rookie second baseman in a prime smash spot tonight.
Cesar Hernandez | PHI | $2,800
Hernandez is not a player I target often, but with the injury to Andrew McCutchen, we could (and should) see Hernandez atop the Philly lineup in a prime matchup.
This play is more about the pitcher’s struggles than it is about Hernandez. While Hernandez does not possess ground-breaking power (although he does have a 0.365 wOBA against righties) or blinding speed, Tyler Mahle has allowed a 0.373 wOBA and 7 HRs to lefties this season in only 25.2 innings (against LHB). With a star-studded lineup behind him, all Hernandez has to do is get on base and he should be scoring runs with ease.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP 3B
Anthony Rendon | WAS | $4,500
I hit on the R/L matchup in this game earlier with the Howie Kendrick blurb so imagine that, on steroids, because Rendon has been an absolute monster this season. Against lefties, he posts a 0.463 wOBA, and a 0.357 ISO. Overall, he’s posteda 56.1% hard-contact rate and comes in with a 0.466 xwOBA.
While Margevicious has not been smashed by righties, I find it hard-pressed not to give Rendon a long look as the top GPP play of the slate and a cash-viable one at that.
Matt Chapman | OAK | $3,800
Typically I like to target Matt Chapman against left-handed pitchers, but Lance Lynn‘s reverse splits have created an exception for me tonight.
Chapman has posted a 0.363 wOBA and 0.232 ISO against righties this season with a 0.281 batting average, which is actually 36 points higher than his average against lefties. He’s also recorded 6 hits in his last 3 games while scoring a run in each contest. His xwOBA of 0.379 for tonight’s game is the top on his team.
Lynn, on the other hand, has been enjoying a bounce-back season, but has still struggling his fair share with R/R matchups. He’s allowed a 0.328 wOBA and a 41.4% hard-contact rate to same-handed hitting this season, giving Chapman a little added upside from a power perspective.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP SS
Trea Turner | WAS | $4,100
Continuing the theme of anchoring my tournament lineup with the Nationals tonight, Trea Turner brings a power/speed combo that not many others do more effectively.
He’s recorded an extra base hit in three consecutive games and has posted a 41.1% hard-contact rate on the season. Against lefties specifically, he’s posted a 0.416 wOBA, round out a heavy-hitting trio of Nationals this evening.
Manny Machado | SDP | $3,300
It’s beyond weird seeing Manny priced at $3,300, but he’s failed to live up to the superstar expectations in San Diego and his price is reflective of that. The hope, however, is that he breaks out and tonight may be the time for him to do so.
Lefty Erick Fedde will take the mound for the Nationals tonight and has only posted a 14.6% strikeout rate and has allowed a 34.7% hard-contact rate.
Even in his slow 2019, Machado has still posted a 0.561 wOBA and a 0.528 ISO against lefties. Those two numbers alone are more than enough to roster a player of his caliber at such a cheap tag.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP OF
Bryce Harper | PHI | $4,100
I want to go on record by saying that I am a firm believer that Bryce Harper is both overrated and overpaid, but it’s hard to ignore the spot he finds himself in tonight.
Echoing the Cesar Hernandez bit, Tyler Mahle has allowed a 0.373 wOBA to lefties this season and on top of that, a 0.402 wOBA and 5.45 xFIP against them across his career.
Harper’s 0.334 wOBA and 0.203 ISO against righties this season are underwhelming considering the hype around him, but his career 0.393 wOBA and 0.251 ISO instill the hope and upside we need to take down a GPP.
Robbie Grossman | OAK | $2400
There may not be a more low-key player that is absolutely scorching right now, as Grossman has recored 9 hits in his last 3 outings, including 2 doubles and a home run. While his position in the order is likely 6-7-8, he’s posted a 0.324 wOBA against righties this season.
As mentioned earlier, Lance Lynn has been a reverse-splits pitcher this season and for $2,400, it’s hard to not get on board with the recent form here, as you aren’t sacrificing much should this play bust, while the upside he carries is what you need in large-field tournaments.
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