MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday 6/7 – Roll With The “Hean-Dog”

MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, 6/7

Welcome back to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

Tonight we have yet another one of the monster 14-game main slates on FanDuel and DraftKings that locks at 7:05. There are 28 pitchers taking the mound tonight and I’m going to narrow my player pool down to my favorite six pitchers.

I want to take a minute to clear something up. Just because a pitcher isn’t listed, that doesn’t make them a bad play. It simply means they aren’t a pitcher that I am considering at their price point on that slate. As I have mentioned before, I try to be pretty picky with my picks, especially on such large slates. In my experience, it does not pay to use more than a handful of pitchers on a slate, even if you are an MME player that makes 150 lineups per slate.

Also, there are times that I will not end up using a pitcher that I recommended in the primer. The nature of this article is that it is a “first look” article, so plenty of things can change between 6:00 AM and 7:00 PM that can take off a pitcher or put me onto one that I hadn’t written up in the primer, such as the opposing team’s lineup, inclement weather, and Vegas line movement.

Alright, now having said all of that, let’s start by looking at all these pitching match-ups tonight!

MLB DFS Pitching: First Look

Here are tonight’s match-ups. The home pitcher is listed second and the Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis when available. Remember that some pitchers have extremely large home/road splits.  Vegas lines and implied run totals can be tricky to navigate, but they are certainly a great place to start your DFS research as well.

Tyler Mahle vs. Zach Eflin

Merrill Kelly vs. Marcus Stroman (-136)

Mike Soroka (-175) vs. Jose Urena

Antonio Senzatela vs. Jacob deGrom (-200)

Michael Pineda (-125) vs. Matt Boyd

Domingo German (-120) vs. Zach Plesac

Yonny Chirinos vs. Rick Porcello

Brett Anderson vs. Lance Lynn (-100)

Gabriel Ynoa vs. Gerrit Cole (-340)

Rookie Davis vs. Brandon Woodruff (-240)

Ivan Nova vs. Homer Bailey (-125)

Marco Gonzales vs. Andrew Heaney (-170)

Erick Fedde vs. Nick Margevicius (-110)

Clayton Kershaw (-200) vs. Drew Pomeranz

When looking at any slate, one of the first things I always do is locate the high priced arm(s) that are the most reliable and safest options for cash games. Today, we have not one, but two high-priced arms that I think are pretty safe for cash. Let’s see who the first one is!

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace

Mike Soroka (10.8k FD, 11.6k DK) @ Miami Marlins

Are you surprised to see the Atlanta rookie here and priced as high as he is? I bet even Mike Soroka has to wonder if he’s worth spending this much of your salary cap on himself if he was playing DFS tonight.

But he’s not playing DFS, he’s playing baseball and pitching at an elite level in his first 8 starts of the season. You simply don’t see this kind of production from rookie pitchers that often, and what separates Soroka from some other young hurlers is his ability to locate his pitches, induce weak contact, and get ground balls (massive 57% GB rate). He’s a sinkerball pitcher who’s not overpowering hitters with velocity as his sinker sits in the 92-94 range, but watch the awesome movement he gets with it and how he ties up righties and leaves lefties waving at it as it breaks off the plate.

As far as tonight’s matchup is concerned, the Marlins have been pesky lately (just ask the Brewers) but are still a team that I feel comfortable targeting with Soroka due to their right-handed heavy lineup, 25% K rate, and lack of power. Soroka gets them in Miami, which is a ballpark upgrade and is a sizable road favorite at -175. Don’t balk at his price tag, the kid is good and there are no red flags statistically that signal potential regression.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Ace #2

Gerrit Cole (11.2k FD, 12.2k DK) vs. Baltimore

Cole would probably be mad if he knew I wrote him up as the second cash option behind rookie Mike Soroka. Someone should tell him about it and get him fired up for tonight. Maybe, an angry Cole could strike out 20+ Orioles tonight?

He probably wouldn’t care and the only person left to be angry is me, angry at my Pirates team for trading away the guy who has become the best strikeout pitcher in the game. Cole comes into tonight with a massive 37% K rate and is facing an Orioles team that whiffs 23% of the time. He’s a massive -350 favorite and the Orioles have a minuscule 2.07 Vegas IRT against him.

There are a few reasons that I may lean Soroka even with Cole being in such a “smash spot.” They are little things, but when you have to make tough decisions between pitcher A and pitcher B, then every little factor matters. First of all, Cole faces an AL team that will be able to add a DH, while Soroka does not. Secondly, Cole is more expensive on both sites – and even though the difference is only a few hundred bucks, sometimes that can mean everything when trying to find the right combination of position players for your cash lineups.

The last things are simply the amount of hard contact he gives up and the park factor in which he’s pitching tonight. The Orioles offense has some power and Camden Yards is a notoriously good park for hitters. When Cole does get hit, he can get hit hard. His strikeout potential gives him a higher ceiling than Soroka, but I’d also argue that he has a higher bust rate tonight in this particular matchup.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivot #1

Andrew Heaney (9.4k FD, 9.2k DK) vs. Seattle

Ah, time to talk about our cover boy, the man who was once affectionately known as “Heanerschnitzel” by his minor league teammates after winning a hot dog eating contest in the clubhouse. That nickname eventually was shortened to the “Hean-dog” and after reading about it, gives this hot-dog lover new respect for Mr. Heaney.

Well, back to baseball, for now, I guess. Heaney’s potential against this Seattle team is tremendous tonight in my opinion. He’s looked every bit the part of a #1 starter in his first two outings, racking up 18 strikeouts in 11 innings and allowing only 7 hits and one walk. His numbers are obscene right now as he is sporting a 44% K rate and a 19% swinging strike rate. Those will go down as the sample size gets bigger, but maybe not after tonight.

I’ve been picking on the Mariners with strikeout pitchers for about a month now. They are whiffing at massive rates lately and their season K rate is now up to 25%. Heaney had his way with them in his last start, striking out 10 Mariners over six innings, while surrendering 3 runs on 2 Edwin Encarnacion homers. If Heaney can pitch around E5 tonight, I think he can pick apart this Seattle lineup and have himself (and you) a big fantasy outing.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Merrill Kelly (7.2k FD, 8.4k DK) @ Toronto

This pick might surprise you a little bit, as it’s not one that jumps off the page for any real statistical reasons and Kelly is not someone I had planned to recommend upon first glancing at the slate. Heck, some of you might be like Merrill who? Merrill Lynch?

Merrill Kelly is a 30-year old rookie for Arizona. He was a well-regarded pitching prospect for Tampa before going to pitch in Korea for 5 years. He throws a fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup. He’s not going to overpower anyone, but he has shown the ability to shut down major league hitters at times this season.

I have watched him pitch and personally, I am bullish on him. He goes after hitters and isn’t afraid to challenge them or throw any of his four pitches in any count. He finally broke through in his last start, striking out 10 Mets in 7.2 innings of work while allowing only one run. Is that sign that he’s figured it out? I’m not sure, but I’m willing to give him a chance to prove that he has tonight against a Toronto team that carries a 25% K rate into this game. His price on DK is a little much (maybe the DK algorithm believes in him, too?) but I like his FanDuel price quite a bit.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Eric Fedde (5.8k FD, 8k DK) @ San Diego

Wait, did FanDuel forget to adjust Fedde’s price or is the DK algorithm onto something again? There is a major price discrepancy here and I can’t in good conscience recommend paying 8k for Fedde, but I do think he’s viable on FanDuel as the third cheapest pitcher on the entire slate.

His peripherals don’t look good, but we are dealing with small sample sizes here and he’s only made three starts for the Nats after working as the long man out of the pen for his first five appearances. Fedde is not a strikeout pitcher and has an alarmingly high walk rate, but what he does have going for him is a matchup with San Diego, a team that has struggled this season against RHP and carries a strikeout rate near 27%.

To be fair, Fedde is not someone I would consider unless you are dead set on stacking up two expensive offenses on FanDuel. His upside is probably 35 FanDuel points, but that would pretty great value at his price and again, you’d need your high-priced stacks to both go off for this to be a GPP-winning play. He’s certainly in the discussion today, but I don’t know if I will end up with any exposure or not just yet.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Zach Plesac (7k both sites) vs. New York Yankees

Taking a rookie pitcher against the Yankees? No, I’m not on drugs or sleep deprived, I promise you that. I have been really impressed with Plesac in his first two starts, as he has lived up to, or perhaps surpassed expectations. He had very little experience at AAA before being summoned to the majors but seems to have transitioned fairly easily to the big stage.

He comes into tonight’s game with a 1.42 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in his first two starts. He hung in there in a tough matchup against the Red Sox and then looked sharp in an easier matchup against the White Sox. Tonight will be a challenge, as the Yankees have some good sluggers in that lineup of theirs, but they also can be stymied by right-handed pitching and Plesac will get to see mainly righties at the plate today.

His price puts him in play for me today, along with his body of work in the minors and his first two starts. Don’t shy away from using him based on a perceived bad matchup as Vegas has the Yankees implied for 4.6 runs on the road in Cleveland.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not. That’s absolutely the case in cash games tonight as both Soroka and Cole are cash viable as the two highest priced pitchers on both sites.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Soroka-Heaney if I can find enough value bats, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Heaney-Plesac in order to save some salary.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher. It’s tempting when some jerk writes up six pitchers to try to play them all, but use your own research and the trusty ole’ gut to go with who you like best.

Cash Rankings

1. Soroka
2. Cole
3. Heaney

GPP Rankings

1. Heaney
2. Cole
3. Kelly
4. Plesac
5. Fedde (FanDuel only)

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck