Talking over and under bets on the NBA’s future
1. Going from the 2019-20 season through the 2024-25 season, would you bet over or under 0.5 titles for the Golden State Warriors? What about 1.5 titles?
Ben Ladner (@bladner_): I’ll take the over on 0.5 due to the possibility that Kevin Durant re-signs this summer and my belief that the Warriors should still be bona fide contenders even if he leaves. Unless Kawhi Leonard stays put or he and Durant sign with the same team, I don’t know that there’s a team I’d bet on over Golden State to win the title next season. I think I’d go under on 1.5 because of how much the league could change and the fact that these guys will age (just) out of their primes by the end of this stretch, but I’m certainly open to the possibility that the Warriors have another couple of titles in their future.
Bryan Toporek (@btoporek): Assuming Durant leaves the Warriors this summer, I’d go with the over on 0.5 and the under on 1.5. The Warriors won’t have salary-cap space even if KD leaves, but the Western Conference Finals showed how dangerous the Durant-less Warriors can be. But unless one of their young prospects turns into a star or they keep stumbling into DeMarcus Cousins-esque steals with the mid-level exception, their depth will continue to wither, especially with Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston signed only through 2019-20. If Durant leaves, I think their title window slams shut after next season or perhaps the year after that.
Paul Centopani (@PCentopani): Give me the under for both. I promise I’m not just taking the contrarian angle here. The Warriors got to the mountaintop through amassing star talent, enhancing the modern style of play, deploying the best shooting backcourt of all-time, and the stability of their system.
But what if all that stability fades away next season? Durant’s probably leaving, Klay might, and Boogie’s a wildcard. What if they don’t get any big names to replace them this summer? What would they have left aside from Steph and Draymond? An even older Iguodala? Jacob Evans and Damian Jones? This Finals could sneakily be the end of Golden State’s run.
Jonathan Macri (@JCMacriNBA): When this question was first raised on our daily email chain, I took the easy road with over 0.5 and under 1.5. Now that I’m looking at the years though, that means I think the Warriors will be beaten five out of the next six seasons, and, well…who the hell is doing all this winning? In their own conference, the only team that looks remotely close to posing a serious threat just publicly announced it was having a fire sale. If Daryl Morrey waves his magic wand and turns Clint Capela and Chris Paul into other stuff, ok…but are we sure that’s in the cards? I’d happily bet on the Clippers rising up if I knew for sure they were getting Kawhi, but I don’t. So if we conservatively estimate three more Finals in six years, do I really think the East is winning two of those? Give me the over, ever so slightly.
Matt Rutkowski (@MontaWorldPeace): I think I would take the over. You see, the Warriors have won three out of the last four championships. Not only that, but that same team (which is called the Warriors) also won the last two consecutively and in a row. That means they won them back-to-back, which is hard. If life has taught anything these last few years it’s that life never changes except to get work.
Let me explain this mathematically. Picture that one graph with the quadrants and X/Y axes and stuff. Now picture a dot there. Whatever. It’s a dot. Great work, buddy. Now picture two dots. If you draw a thing between the dots, that’s called a line. Algebra or something taught me that lines go on forever. Since the only points on Golden State’s line has been championships, that means the championships are going to go on all the way down.
The Warriors will never lose a title again.
Hunter Kuffel (@notgatherer): I’ll take the over on 0.5 and the under on 1.5, as I think Golden State has exactly one more title in them after this year. If they don’t, how will Kevon Looney earn his Finals MVP, rounding out his trophy collection and cementing his case as one of the best to ever lace up those size 18s and grind out a Friday night of Mikan drills?
2. Going from the 2019-20 season through the 2024-25 season, is there any team other than the Warriors you would bet over 1.5 titles for?
Ladner: If the Clippers get Kawhi and Durant, yes. There’s an outside shot that Toronto, Milwaukee or Philadelphia could win multiple titles over the next five years, or that the Lakers get Anthony Davis and [insert star free agent here]. I won’t count out the Rockets. It would take something truly unforeseen for me to include any other team. What happens this summer could re-shape the entire discussion, though, and frankly, I hope it does.
Toporek: Depending on what happens in free agency, possibly? If Kawhi leaves the Raptors, Durant leaves the Warriors and the Sixers #RunItBack, I’d be inclined to project two titles for them over the next few years, just because their core would be locked in place. The Bucks will have a tough time retaining their core this summer, but Brook Lopez taking an unexpected discount would lock them into annual title contention. But without knowing how this summer shakes out, the Denver Nuggets stand out as the most likely multiple-title winner over the next six years.
Centopani: If I had to pick one, I’d choose the Bucks. They already have Giannis — who’s still on the upswing of his development arc — and I assume they’ll try to bring everybody back this offseason. They’re also well-coached and the East, as much as it improved, continues to stand in the West’s shadow, giving them a slightly easier hypothetical path.
Macri: As a Knicks fan, this is the part where I’m supposed to make the self-deprecating joke about the wisdom, or lack thereof, of betting on a James Dolan-owned team to do something twice in the next six years that they’ve done twice in 72 seasons.
But it looks like Paul already has me covered there. So you know what? F*** it. Why can’t the Knicks win twice in six seasons? They currently have better than even odds to get Kevin Durant, and we know he’s not coming alone. At that point, the Knicks brass – which includes noted adult in the room Scott Perry – simply has to turn RJ Barrett, a bunch of kids and future picks into four or five functional, complementary pieces. How hard could that be!
(Gold star to everyone who tweets at me with the link to this article after KD signs with the Clippers in a month)
Rutkowski: If the Warriors change their name to something else, yes. There are all sorts of words (both nouns and verbs and the other ones) that have not been used for a sports team, let alone an NBA team. What if they went with the Golden State Ennui? Or the Golden State Affliction? Can’t you just see the word “UNHAPPY” stitched across Golden State’s chest? I can. I see it every day.
Kuffel: It’s June 2025. LeBron James just wrapped up the third year of a four-year retirement tour. Michael Beasley is in the House of Representatives. The Phoenix Suns have fired Head Coach Rajon Rondo after, and you’ll never believe this, I mean really this is just bonkers, his constant grating on players and the front office becomes an untenable distraction.
And also, the Dallas Mavericks just won their second consecutive NBA Championship.
3. Going from the 2019-20 season through the 2024-25 season, would you bet over or under 4.5 different teams winning a title?
Ladner: Under, but just slightly. If Kevin Durant leaves this summer there could be as many as eight teams with legitimate championship aspirations next season and beyond, but I feel confident that at least one team will win multiple titles over the next five years, even if I’m not sure who it will be. Honestly, I’m not as concerned with how many different champions there will be during this span as I am about there being more intrigue around the playoffs; I’d be okay with Golden State winning the next five titles, so long as it felt like they had multiple genuine challengers the whole way through.
Toporek: I’d bet the under, if only because I expect the era of superteams to continue even if Durant leaves the Warriors this summer. Five different teams won a title between 2005-06 and 2010-11 (Heat, Spurs, Celtics, Lakers and Mavericks) and from 2010-11 to 2015-16 (Mavericks, Heat, Spurs, Warriors and Cavaliers), but that type of parity hadn’t occurred for much of the 30 years prior to that. If the Bucks and Sixers retain their cores while Leonard leaves Toronto and Kyrie Irving leaves the Celtics, they’ll be the overwhelming favorites to represent the East in the Finals for the foreseeable future. The West is tougher to predict, but I’d bet on two repeat champions emerging in the next six years.
Centopani: History suggests this is an easy under. The past 30 years produced 10 different title winners. Going by this trend, only two teams will hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy over the next six seasons. But history was made to be broken.
Declining roster continuity coupled with over-assetization and heightened player movement constantly shift the sands of power.
Durant transforms any team into a title contender. Kawhi could decide between equally devastating L.A. scenarios of joining LeBron or the upstart Clippers. Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris could be second stars elsewhere or thrust open the 76ers’ championship window. Kemba, Klay and Kyrie are up for grabs. It’s all chaos. And *extreme Littlefinger voice* chaos is a ladder. I’m hammering the over.
Macri: As Paul points out, the under is the easy answer. NBA history does have its fair share of dynasties. We’re in the midst of one right now, in fact.
Given these parameters, it was pretty surprising when I looked at the list of champions this century and realized that there’s been not one but two stretches where there were a diverse mix of champs over a significant span of time. Most recently, from 2010 to 2016, there were six different winners in seven years, with LeBron’s Miami team as the only repeat winner. Immediately preceding that, from 2004 to 2009, the Spurs won twice but the Pistons, Heat, Celtics and Lakers also claimed victory.
So I’ll be contrarian yet again and take the over. Variety is the spice of life, after all.
Rutkowski: Under because Golden State is only one team. You see, one is less than four-point-five. I don’t want to do another mathematical proof. You’re going to have to take my word on this because what has happened in the last few minutes is that you and I have developed a sense of trust necessary for you to give way to my opinion.
Kuffel: I would bet the under with some confidence here. Five different teams winning the championship in a six-year span seems unlikely in our modern times. And seeing as I already predicted back-to-back Dallas chips at the tail-end of this window, that makes it even less likely.