NBA DFS: Finals Game 5 Showdown Picks

NBA DFS: Game 5 Showdown Picks

Hello there, NBA fans, and welcome to my latest Finals showdown article. I have been playing showdown on both sites all series long and have been able to profit so far. Tonight might be the last chance for you to play NBA DFS for four months!

I covered the NBA for five months this season and since then I’ve been on the MLB beat now for two months straight. I wanted to take an opportunity to put some NBA DFS content out there today for all of you who all still grinding the one game showdowns on FanDuel or DraftKings.

My goal is to give you both the highest percentage plays (for cash) and some lower owned, game-theory based picks for GPPs. Building rosters on FanDuel and Draftkings is very different with their pricing structures and scoring systems, but you usually need roughly the same combination of players on either site to finish in the money.

Let’s take a quick review of game four and see what statistics and other info we can use when building our game five lineups.

NBA DFS: Game 4 Breakdown

The Raptors won for the second straight time in Oakland on Friday night, behind a huge third quarter in which they outscored the Warriors 37-21. The Raps trailed by three at the half but were rallied once again by their superstar Kawhi “Board Man Gets Paid” Leonard who poured in 36 points to go with 12 rebounds. Leonard has done everything this series, and in this postseason and his incredible athleticism and playmaking were on display again Friday night as he took over the game in the second half.

Pascal Siakam contributed 19 points and played a game-high 41 minutes, but it was Serge Ibaka who really sparked this Toronto team off the bench with 20 points on 9-12 shooting to go with 4 rebounds and 2 blocks. It was really needed by the Raps as Lowry, Green, Van Vleet, and Gasol all struggled to make shots.

The Warriors were led by the “Splash Brothers” as Klay Thompson and Steph Curry scored 28 and 27 points, respectively. Both played over 42 minutes and fellow star Draymond Green played 41 while coming up just one rebound short of another triple-double, posting a 10-9-12 line.

Outside of the big three, the Dubs got very little production from anyone else. DeMarcus Cousins struggled badly again and actually ended up playing fewer minutes than Kevon Looney, who added 10 points and 6 boards off the bench after missing game three with a collarbone injury. Andre Iguodala played 37 minutes and was held to three points, though he did add 5 combined blocks/steals on defense.

For the complete game four box score click here.

Toronto is currently a 2-point favorite at home for game 5, with an O/U of 213.5.

NBA DFS: Cash Game Plays

Kawhi Leonard (16k FD, 11.6k DK)

I’m not sure how many words I need to type here to convince you to play Kawhi in your cash game lineups. Even if you think the Warriors win this game, you still are going to want to lock in Leonard’s production and awesome floor. Playing him in the MVP slot on FanDuel is smart for cash, but perhaps bumping him down to the STAR slot in GPPs will make you a little different. Fading him is awfully risky. The “Board Man” is one game away from cementing his status as perhaps the biggest star in the NBA.

Klay Thompson (11.5k FD, 8.6k DK)

At this price, I’m playing Thompson in my cash games. Regardless of KD’s status, the Warriors are going to continue to need Thompson’s scoring and outside of injury, I don’t see any way he doesn’t pay off this salary with the heavy minutes he’s logging and the large number of shot attempts he’s taking.

Serge Ibaka (9.5k FD, 5k DK)

I’ve been riding Ibaka in every game this series and now that he finally broke through with a big game, I expect him to be a popular value play on both sites. He’s been excellent in his bench role, as the Warriors have no one in their second unit who can match his size and athleticism. I’m locking him into my lineups as my top value play and not looking back. He’s hot, feeling confident, and will be playing in front of his home crowd tonight.

NBA DFS: GPP Plays

Kevin Durant (13.5 FD, 10k DK)

Durant has officially been listed as “questionable” for Monday night’s game. He participated in both Saturday and Sunday’s practices and it’s really anyone’s guess as to just how healthy he is. Clearly, he wants to play and knows that his team badly needs him to avoid elimination in game five, but he and his coach also know that they can’t afford to have him out there at anything less than 75% or he’ll be hurting the team.

Pay close attention to media reports throughout the day. If it sounds like he’s going to give it a go, then I’d be loading up on some shares. He is exactly the player that Golden State needs to get back into the series. The Raptors can put Leonard or Siakam on him, but he’s going to get buckets either way and the added attention from the Raptors defense is going to free up others for open shots as well. Some will be hesitant to roster him after the injury, but I won’t be. That’s what makes him an ideal GPP play as he will be lower owned than the other Warriors starters.

Draymond Green (13.5 FD, 10.6 DK)

If Durant doesn’t suit up then Draymond is an easy pivot as he’s price the same on FanDuel and just a tad more on Draftkings. Dray has been solid throughout the series and will continue to log heavy minutes and rack up counting stats in this game. But if KD does play, then I’ll reduce my shares of Draymond as KD will likely gobble up some boards and steal some assists away from Dray as the offense will be running through KD more often than Dray.

Kyle Lowry (12k FD, 8k DK)

Lowry has been pretty hit or miss in this series and has more bad games than good, but he’s still one of the 4-5 best players on the floor at all times. His performances have been tied to his shooting most of the time since he has a pretty solid floor with rebounds and assists. I think the potential return of KD could mean another defender to put on Kawhi and perhaps might force Lowry to take some more shots. He has the best matchup against Steph Curry, who is the weakest defender of the GSW super friends.

NBA DFS: Top Value Plays

Danny Green (8k FD, 4.4k DK)

Danny Green went from red-hot from deep in game three to ice-cold in game four as he shot a paltry 1-7 from downtown. The encouraging thing, however, is that he still played 29 minutes which was the most he’d played since game 1 of the series. The guy who steals his minutes is Fred Van Vleet and he went down with an injury to his face in the second half. FVV should suit up for this one, but Green is still going to get plenty of chances to make threes and rack up defensive stats. The Raptors need him on the floor for spacing and for his defense on either Steph or Klay.

Kevon Looney (6k FD, 5.6k DK)

Looney got a big price hike on DK but is still dirt cheap on FanDuel. Rostering him is the formula for being able to fit 4 10k+ players into a FD lineup. He looked okay out there even as he battled through some pain in his shoulder and the Warriors need him to match the athleticism of Ibaka/Siakam inside. He outplayed Boogie Cousins and he’s been a favorite of Steve Kerr all year long. I think we see him play another 20+ minutes in this one and he is the kind of fantasy player that can rack up points in a hurry.

NBA DFS: Final Thoughts

If you’re playing showdowns on either site, it makes sense to make multiple lineups. Find the core plays that you feel really good about and then mix and match the secondary players around them. On FanDuel, you can play the same 5 guys in different lineups and just rotate players in and out of the MVP, STAR, and PRO slots to be different.

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Kawhi is still my top plays in all formats, but in GPPs just remember that they will be 80% owned or more. Fading him will open up a ton of cap space and allow you a unique roster construction.

The big news we will be waiting for is the status of KD. Here’s how I am approaching things. If KD plays, then you’re going to want some exposure to him. He wouldn’t be suiting up unless he was close to 80-90% and even if he’s not completely healthy, he can do enough with his minutes to make or exceed value. I’m not going “all in” but I would want heavy exposure to him as long as he is cleared to play and feels good.

If KD is out, then I think you continue targeting the Warriors other stars in this order – Klay, Draymond, Steph, with Boogie being a deep GPP flyer.

Mix and match those chalky picks with the contrarian GPP picks to create dozens of unique lineups, and don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table to be different!

My favorite FanDuel combination right now is Kawhi-KD OR DRAY-Siakam-Klay-Looney.

My favorite Draftkings combination is Danny Green (capt), Durant-Kawhi-Ibaka-Lowry-Klay.

Thanks for taking the time to read my Finals Game 5 breakdown for NBA DFS showdown! Good luck in your contests! If you’re not already following me on Twitter, hit me up @ThunderDanDFS and make sure you are checking in here at FantasyCPR for the best in DFS content for all sports.