MLB Daily Fantasy: FanDuel GPP Picks – 6/11/19: Rays Will Put Out The Fier
By Joe Metz
Welcome back to the MLB Daily Fantasy GPP plays, where I will help you navigate through the best plays at each position to build your large-field tournament lineups and leverage ownership on the field!
After a nice 9-game MLB DFS slate to kick off the work week, Tuesday brings us a fully-loaded 15-game slate with aces, gas cans and stacks galore.
Just like my last piece, this article will be focused on plays that are more tailored to large-field tournaments and helping you find ways to zig while your competition zags.
At the time of writing this article (Monday night), there are a handful of stud pitchers with exploitable matchups that should garner decent ownership; Patrick Corbin vs the White Sox, Luis Castillo vs the Indians and Trevor Bauer against the Reds, which leads us into our first play to leverage some ownership and pivot away from the chalk options:
MLB Daily Fantasy – Primary GPP Pitcher
Chris Paddack | SDP | $9,300
While I expect most of the ownership in cash games flock to the $10k+ range, I personally think there is just as much, if not more upside if you dip down just a bit and Chris Paddack fits the bill.
In his rookie season, he’s posted a 2.97 ERA that’s backed by his 27.4% strikeout rate, 3.55 SIERA and 3.75 xFIP. His batted ball profile raises a few red flags which is why he profiles a bit more as a GPP play, as he’s allowed a 45.3 hard-contact percentage.
While the batted ball profile raises a bit of concern, the Giants offense (or lack thereof) gives reason to believe it won’t be an issue, as they struggle against righties to the tune of a 0.285 wOBA and 0.156 ISO with a 0.220 team batting average. Add that on to the fact that the game is in SF (huge park upgrade for Paddack) and you have a heightened floor combined with a high ceiling at low ownership.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Secondary GPP Pitcher
James Paxton | NYY | $9,400
This play is one that I really wanted to write up in the primary spot, but the lack of clarity around what Paxton’s pitch count will be led me to take the conservative route. In his last start, he only lasted 4.2 innings but tossed 83 pitches, leading me to believe all systems will be a go in the Subway series.
Paxton has rocked an elite 33.2% strikeout rate this season and has really cut down on the long-ball, lowering his HR/9 rate from 1.29 in 2018 to 0.78 this season. This upside is only heightened when you look at the Mets’ 25.8% strikeout rate against lefties on the season.
Even though the Mets will get the benefit of having a DH tonight, it’s hard to ignore the 12-14 strikeout upside that Paxton brings to the table in a heated rivalry game. With that being said, there is plenty of risk here, so tread lightly, but this could pay off ten fold.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP C/1B
Josh Bell | PIT | $4,500
If it wasn’t for Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, Josh Bell may be the runaway for NL MVP this season. He’s especially crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting a 0.441 wOBA and 0.359 ISO. While his matchup (Kevin Gausman), has typically been a reverse splits pitcher, this year has been different.
He’s allowed a 0.341 wOBA against lefties on the season and has walked 12.5% of lefties he faces. With Coors and a few stud pitchers on the slate, this is not a spot that anyone will look, but Bell checks in as a top tournament option.
Mitch Garver | MIN | $3,300
People never play catchers on FanDuel and it’s one spot where you can always get leverage on the field, so it’s an added bonus when one steps into a spot like Garver finds himself in tonight.
While he’s typically better against lefties, he’s still rocked a 0.423 wOBA and 0.406 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. His matchup, Mike Leake, has allowed a 0.338 wOBA and already 9 HRs against righties this season. Fire him up as a play you can surely grab under 5% owned.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP 2B
Brandon Lowe | TAM | $3,500
There may not be a hotter 2B in the league right now and Lowe continues to take the AL ROY race by storm. Against righties particularly, he’s posted a 0.378 wOBA and 0.267 ISO with a 44.6% hard-contact rate.
His matchup, Mike Fiers, has been a gas-can and a half for years and is notorious for allowing the long-ball. He’s allowed 14 already this season and while only 5 of them have been to lefties, I have a hard time not siding with Lowe here, as Fiers’ wOBA allowed is 33 points higher against lefties than it is righties.
Ozzie Albies | ATL | $2,900
Albies hasn’t come close to impressing how he did last season, but that doesn’t stop him from being a prime value target tonight against Chris Archer. Archer has been a reverse-splits pitcher this season, but his 0.243 BABIP and 0.497 xFIP against lefties show that the 0.316 wOBA allowed to them could be on the rise, not to mention he allows a 44.7% hard-contact rate to them.
Albies has struggled against right-handed pitching over the course of his early career, but I have a hard time not trying to get ahead of Archer’s regression against lefties and, based on his success and Archer’s reverse splits, who’s to say we won’t get surprised and have Albies step into the righty’s box?
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP 3B
Matt Carpenter | STL | $3,500
Carpenter’s notorious early-season struggles have extended a bit this season, as his average still sits at 0.228, but his matchup is way too attractive to pass up.
Over his short career thus far, Elieser Hernandez has allowed a 0.382 wOBA to left-handed hitters with a 12.1% strikeout rate compared to a 12.7% walk rate (-0.6% K-BB%). The 48.7% fly-ball rate allowed gives Carpenter an added HR-upside and batting out of the leadoff spot ensures he should get 5 ABs. He’s an extremely reasonable price for the upside he brings to the table.
Yandy Diaz | TAM | $3,400
I touched on the fact that Mike Fiers is a reverse splits pitcher above, and that should be exploited tonight and Yandy Diaz has the power potential to do so.
Fiers’ reverse splits have been a bit odd, as he’s allowed only a 0.289 wOBA to righties, but has allowed 9 home runs vs RHB compared to 5 to LHBs. His xFIP is also 0.90 higher against righties than it is lefties, which should signal some regression on the horizon.
Diaz on the other hand has posted a 0.323 wOBA and 0.194 ISO against righties this season with a 38.7% hard-contact rate. While I prefer Carpenter for a similar price, if you need the $100 and want to get from Chris Paddack to James Paxton, Diaz is a viable pivot.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP SS
Jorge Polanco | MIN | $4,000
I touched on a Twin earlier and I’ll come right back to this spot again here. With attention on Trevor Story and Javy Baez in Coors, there is no way Polanco will garner the attention he should tonight.
He’s posted a 0.426 wOBA and 0.287 ISO against righties this season and Mike Leake has allowed a 0.338 wOBA to LHB. Polanco has crushed the ball from a batted ball profile aspect to the tune of a 41.3% and a 48.6% fly-ball rate. His upside is through the roof here at minimal ownership.
Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | $3,600
While the Padres offense is typically not the most fun to target, Tatis is a bit different. He’s been bumped up to the leadoff role in the offense and has posted 7 hits in his last 5 contests including 1 home run. On the season, he’s posted a 0.372 wOBA and 0.258 ISO against righties, making this an exploitable matchup with Tyler Beede.
Beede has allowed a 0.364 wOBA and holds a xFIP of 6.16 against righties with a 37.1% fly-ball rate, spelling potential disaster in this individual matchup.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Top GPP OF
Austin Meadows | TAM | $4,300
If you haven’t picked up on this yet, I plan to stack the Rays in my GPP lineups tomorrow and Fiers is clearly attackable from both sides of the plate.
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I’ve hit on his numbers against both lefties and righties, so let’s focus on the ridiculous numbers that Austin Meadows is posting. He’s posted a 0.462 wOBA, 0.308 ISO and a 47.1% hard-contact rate against righties this season and has also swiped 7 bags against righties.
He’s also recorded 18 of his 20 walks against righties. With all of this in mind, it’s hard to believe that he’s only $4,300 on FanDuel tonight, making him a lock in my GPP contests.
Domingo Santana | SEA | $3,300
About a month ago, Santana was flirting with a price tag $1,000+ more than he is now, and it’s a perfect time to take advantage of the cheap tag.
He takes on lefty Martin Perez tonight and he’s absolutely brutalized southpaws this season to the tune of a 0.366 wOBA and a 0.308 ISO. Perez, on the other hand, has allowed all 5 of his home runs this season against righties and while his wOBA allowed sits at 0.312, it’s 37 points higher than it is against lefties.
There is plenty of risk here given Perez’s impressive play, Satana possesses a ton of upside here.
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