MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – June 11 – Hernandez And Hernandez LLC.
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday Night was a wild MLB DFS slate as we had massive pitching performances from the top arms like Chris Sale and Charlie Morton but it was a 21 run outburst by the Phillies and Diamondbacks in Philadelphia that broke the slate at low ownership due in many ways to the rain risk that hovered over that game all the way up until lock.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Breakdown:
Before we jump into Tuesday’s MLB DFS action, make sure you reserve your spot in the $400 FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft who continue to roll this out each and every day which gives you the chance to build your bankroll ahead of their July switch over to rake free DFS!
When looking at this slate at first glance it is hard not to notice we have four game totals over 10 and six teams with 5+ IRT’s and with warm temperatures and clear skies, offense is going to be a key decision point on this slate in terms of how much salary allocation you give to your bats. Conversely, we also have a handful of top-tier arms like James Paxton, Chris Paddack, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer and Patrick Corbin so where exactly do you want to plant your flag?
For me, when picking my arms, K’s are always king and we rarely can drop down at pitcher and find high K pedigree arms, but tonight that may be exactly what we have the option to do which in the context of an offense rich slate, may be exactly what we want to do!
Darwinzon Hernandez ($13.9K) will make the start today for the Red Sox at home against the Texas Rangers, a team with the 4th highest K rate (26.9%) versus LHP. Hernandez is making the jump from AA where he has pitched 40 innings this season, racking up 59 K’s and a 31% K rate and there is a reason he is routinely among the top prospects listed in the Red Sox system.
Now Hernandez projects as a reliever to many as he has electric stuff but also has struggled with control as evidenced by his 17% walk rate in AA but there is no question the stuff is there to be a high K arm at this level with a strong fastball and a curve ball that is simply un-hittable when he can control it. In his most recent start at AA, he threw 97 pitches, striking out 9, so we know he is stretched out and has K upside but this is also an arm with control issues making the jump from AA so you have to understand the risk that comes with a play like this.
One of the things working in the top prospects favor? Umpire Angel Hernandez (see? ANOTHER Hernandez – so many narratives) will be calling balls and strikes – mostly strikes likely as he calls 11% more K’s than the average umpire so this could be a spot at home in Fenway to toll the dice on the Sox top minor league arm.
Dropping nearly all the way down is another Hernandez – the Marlins Elieser Hernandez ($10K) who has his own lofty K metrics this year with a 34% K rate at AAA over 48 innings of work. Hernandez has thrown 90+ pitches in four of his last five starts so he is stretched out, and in those outings he put up 8, 9, 10 and 12 K’s which tells you the kind of strikeout upside we are dealing with.
What really stands out about Hernandez’s numbers at AAA are that he is doing this in the hitter friendly PCL and in addition to his massive K numbers, he has given up 0 HR’s in 48 innings of work.
On some slates we wouldn’t need to roll the dice with unknowns but in the context of this slate, with bats in huge potential spots, there is merit to going all-in on the Hernandez(s) K appeal. We get two arms with strong minor league K pedigrees who will get home starts and remain dirt cheap so tonight is a night in GPP’s I think you can go Hernandez and Hernandez in an attempt to grab the K’s alongside all your big bats.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
With a 12 IRT and two hittable pitchers in Coors Field, one of the reasons you can go with the cheap rookies is to maximize your exposure to this spot. Now, I know people will say playing Coors is chalky and maybe it will end up being so, but with elite arms tonight it will be interesting to see if people are willing to pay the freight for the Cubs and Rockies bats. As an example last night – Daniel Murphy (9%), David Dahl (15%), Trevor Story (16%) and Nolan Arenado (18%) were only moderately owned in GPP play and at those ownership levels, I do not think you need to fade for game theory purposes if you believe they are the best pure plays.
First and foremost – we have a lefty in Jose Quintana on the mound in Coors Field – so starting your builds anywhere but with Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story feels like a dangerous fade. Since the start of 2018, Arenado has a .375 ISO versus LHP while Story is at .290 – in their careers versus lefties in Coors – Arenado is at a .378 ISO mark with Story jumping to .422. Just play these two, it is that simple.
Rockies RHP Peter Lambert may have been excellent his first start against the Cubs with 9 K’s and 1 ER in 7 IP’s but with a 19.8% K rate at AAA prior to his call-up this is an arm that most scouting reports project as a back-end control starter with limited K upside. This is Coors Field and it has made far better pitchers ERA’s spike so I will side with the Cubs offense which Vegas has projected for 6+ runs here today.
The Cubs line-up at the top is just loaded with power with 5 of the top 6 batters sporting .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season – with Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo all putting up .220+ ISO marks and you could argue a full 6 man stack if you utilize the salary savings of Carlos Gonzalez in the middle of this stack.
Just game stacking Coors may seem like the “easy way out” on this slate but as the industry gets smarter and dives deeper, I notice more and more that people over think DFS and stray from the obvious. On this slate I am not making that mistake – as long as I can get comfortable with the cheaper pitching, the Coors game stack is priority #1 in my GPP builds.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build:
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SP: Darwinzon Hernandez
SP: Elieser Hernandez
IF: Nolan Arenado
IF: Trevor Story
IF: Anthony Rizzo
OF: Kris Bryant
OF: Kyle Schwarber
OF: Juan Lagares ($4.7K punt)
UTIL: Willson Contreras
UTIL: Javier Baez
Slate Overview: With Coors at the forefront of this slate in my mind, it brings me to cheaper price point for arms and very rarely can we find 30% plus K pedigrees at the bottom of the pricing to make a build like this work but tonight we have that opportunity.
Sure there is risk of the unknown and variance could rear its ugly head and make tonight a 2-1 dud in Coors, but if we are willing to absorb some risk we could find a path to a monster offensive night around two strong minor league arms who have been racking up double-digit K games prior to their call up.
You ready to roll with the Hernandez Narrative tonight and go all in? Let’s have some fun!
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