MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 6/11 – Paddack Your Stats

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 6/10 –

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

Tonight we have an enormous 15-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings that locks at 7:05. Such big slates can be daunting, and I think focusing in on 5-6 pitchers is one way to start paring down your options and figuring out how you are going to approach roster construction.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

Last night was a wild one in MLB DFS as there were many home runs hit and runs scored. I was able to cash the majority of my lineups on the strength of Chris Sale and Charlie Morton‘s big performances. My value pitchers were decent as Sandy Alcantara scored 30 FanDuel points and Anibal Sanchez had 28. The winning GPP scores were upwards of 250 on FanDuel and 220 on Draftkings.

Today is a brand new day and in DFS, and we are presented with a new challenge – to try to find the right combination of pitchers and hitters to get that winning score. Let’s start by examining the starting pitching matchups for all 15 games.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: First Look

Here are tonight’s pitching match-ups. The home pitcher is listed second and the Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis when available. Remember that some pitchers have extremely large home/road splits.  Vegas lines and implied run totals can be tricky to navigate at times and they do change throughout the day, but they are certainly a great place to start your MLB DFS research. For cash games, I am often looking for large home favorites, while anything goes for GPP arms.

Jon Duplantier vs. Jake Arrieta (-128)

Jason Vargas vs. James Paxton (-180)

Trent Thornton (-110) vs. John Means 

Luis Castillo vs. Trevor Bauer (-120)

Mike Fiers vs. Jalen Beeks (projected reliever)

Dakota Hudson (-115) vs. Elieser Hernandez

Ariel Jurado vs. Darwinzon Hernandez 

Chris Archer vs. Mike Foltynewicz (-140)

Freddy Peralta vs. Brad Peacock (-117)

Mike Leake vs. Martin Perez (-182)

Patrick Corbin (-180) vs. Manny Banuelos

Spencer Turnbull vs. Jakob Junis (-125)

Jose Quintana (-118) vs. Peter Lambert (-118)

Chris Paddack (-150) vs. Tyler Beede

Kenta Maeda vs. Felix Pena

There might be 30 pitchers going tonight, but there are more question marks than sure things and that’s going to make it all the more challenging and important to find the guys who produce the most fantasy points. Let’s take a look at my top spend-up for cash games next with my “cash game ace.”

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cash Game Ace

Chris Paddack (9.3k FD, 10.6k DK) @ San Francisco

Paddack is the highest priced pitcher on Draftkings, yet is priced as the SP5 over on FanDuel. We run into situations like this quite often during the season as the DK algorithm tends to factor in matchups a lot more into their pricing than FanDuel, which often seems to rely more on recent production.

Let’s start with the matchup, which is ideal for the young Padres righty tonight. The Giants have the lowest implied team total on the slate at only 3.59 runs and are in the bottom three in team wOBA. They’ve been a below average offense all season and while Paddack is on the road here, he actually gets a park upgrade in San Fran.

The current form for Paddack is the only thing that would make you hesitate here as he’s struggled recently, yielding 9 earned runs over his last 9 innings to the Phillies and Yankees. His overall stats are still excellent, however, as he’s carrying a .90 WHIP, sub-3 ERA, and striking out over a batter per inning on the year.

He faced the Giants way back in April and pitched five strong innings against them, striking out 7 and allowing only one run on two hits. He has been on a pretty strict pitch count early in the season, throwing more than 90 pitches just twice in 11 starts, so he will need to be efficient today. I think he’s the safest option of our high-end arms from a run prevention standpoint and he offers some moderate strikeout upside, too.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: GPP Pivot #1

James Paxton (9.4k FD, 10.1k DK) vs. New York Mets

Paxton is 100 dollars more than Paddack on FanDuel, but 500 cheaper on Draftkings. Paxton is working his way back from injury and will be making his third start for the Yankees since being on the shelf for three weeks in May. He draws an interesting matchup here against the cross-town Mets in the second game of a doubleheader after last night’s game was rained out.

There’s no one else on this slate who can match Paxton’s strikeout potential as he carries a 33% K rate this season and has been a dominant strikeout pitcher during his career when healthy. He looked great against San Diego in his first start back from injury striking out 7 over four scoreless innings but got dinged up in his last outing by Toronto, surrendering three runs on four hits in only 4.2 innings.

His pitch count is trending in the right direction as he has gone 66 and 83 pitches in those two starts. If he’s cleared for 100 pitches again, then he certainly has the kind of stuff to go six quality innings today and rack up double-digit strikeouts against this Mets offense that is striking out 25% of the time. I do get nervous about fly ball pitchers in Yankee stadium and Paxton is prone to giving up the long ball so this play is not without some risk which is why I am reserving him for GPPs only.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: GPP Pivot #2

Spencer Turnbull (7.8k FD, 8.6k DK) @ Kansas City

Turnbull is enjoying a solid rookie campaign for Detroit and along with fellow starter Matt Boyd, he’s been one of the bright spots for this underwhelming Tiger pitching staff.

He enters tonight’s game with an ERA of 3.01 and some solid strikeout numbers and ground ball rates. The only thing I’d pick on from a stats perspective is his walk rate, which is creeping up there close to double digits. I really like this kid, he’s pitched well against some good competition this year and shown that he has the type of stuff to be an effective major league pitcher.

He’s too cheap, especially on FanDuel, for this matchup with the Royals, a team that he has handled not once, but twice already this season. In 13 innings against KC, Turnbull has allowed only three earned runs while striking out 17. I’m going to keep picking on the Royals with quality pitchers until they prove that they are an offense that does more than just hit against weaker pitchers.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Ariel Jurado (6.6k FD, 7.5k DK) @ Boston

Jurado stands out as a better play on FanDuel, where they haven’t priced him up yet despite his solid stretch of recent production and there’s another cheap guy I like just a little better on DK (more on that in a minute). Anyway, Jurado has been solid for Texas in his three starts since being converted from a reliever. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but does have an elite ground ball rate and has been getting hitters out.

He’s pitched six innings in three straight starts and allowed 3 or fewer runs. Those quality starts are important on FanDuel. I doubt anyone plays him as people still fear this Boston offense despite the fact that they have been pretty mediocre most of the season. It’s a tough spot on the road, but Jurado has shown that he’s capable of pitching well against good competition. And his salary is going to save you a nice chunk of change to spend on some of these higher priced bats in great spots.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Peter Lambert (6.7k FD, 5.6k DK)

Ok, so we have a rookie pitcher who is facing the same team twice in one week and pitching at Coors Field? There are certainly some red flags here that we have to acknowledge. Despite Lambert’s dominant outing in his first big league start, he comes with considerable risk tonight.

First of all, using the same guy twice in a week against the same team is risky. MLB hitters adapt quickly and whatever edge Lambert had with his delivery or pitch mix will be lessened tonight against these good Cubs hitters that have seen him now. We also have to see if he can hold up in the altitude of Coors Field. What concerns me is that he throws a curveball and that is the pitch that is most affected by the thin Colorado air in the way that it breaks. He has a solid change-up, too, which if he were wise, he’d rely on more tonight. But young pitchers don’t often ride their changeups.

So why should you play this guy if I spent most of this page telling why he’s risky? Well, he’s cheap! And despite his big outing last week, the fact that he’s pitching against a good offense in Coors is going to keep his ownership down. His price on DK is just silly and well worth some shares in tournaments.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Gas Can of the Night

Tyler Beede vs. San Diego

Beede is supposed to be a promising prospect for the Giants but has been absolutely hammered by major league hitters so far this season. He checks all the boxes for what we are looking for in a pitcher to target with hitters.

1. High walk rate (16%)
2. A xFIP over 5 (real ERA up over 8!)
3. High hard contact rate
4. Allowing home runs (4 HR in only 17 IP)

San Diego is an offense that I will pick on righties at times, but they do have a lot of power in that lineup, too. I don’t see them being too popular tonight with all the other offenses on this slate in good matchups, and I think they can be a sneaky one to target for GPPs. At least play Franmil Reyes, the guy is a beast!

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not. That’s absolutely the case in cash games tonight as both Paddack and Paxton are cash viable as the two highest priced pitchers on both sites.

Martin Perez is a guy I didn’t have room for in this article but he is 6.7k on Draftkings and a DK-only play for me over there.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Paddack-Perez, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Paxton-Lambert in order to save a few extra dollars for bats.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher. It’s tempting when some jerk writes up six pitchers to try to play them all, but use your own research and the trusty ole’ gut to go with who you like best.

Cash Rankings

1. Paddack
2. Turnbull
3. Perez (DK only)
4. Jurado (SP2)

GPP Rankings

1. Paxton
2. Turnbull
3. Lambert
4. Paddack

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck