Early DraftKings MLB Picks June 12: Zach Plesac Attack
By Mike Marteny
Early DraftKings MLB Picks June 12: Zach Plesac Attack
We have a 12 game Wednesday, but the early DraftKings MLB tournaments only have four games in them. This is better than last Wednesday, but we still have to get a lot of things right to cash. There are a couple of pitchers priced as aces, but they don’t really stand out as such. Are they worth the money?
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There is no rain to worry about on the early slate, and only a 10 mph breeze out to left center in the battle of Ohio. It’s a great day for baseball, except maybe in the dome in Tampa.
It was one of the lower scoring nights of the week overall, but I put two of the six lineups above 150. That was good enough for a couple of top 1000 finishes, but that’s still only 5x the entry fee. My Turnbull/Means and Turnbull/Hudson lines did the best. Big nights from Eloy Jimenez and Hunter Pence didn’t hurt either.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Yonny Chirinos ($10,400): Yonny’s carrying a perfect game through five in Fenway is jacking his price up, almost to the point where it’s out of control. Chrinos ended up blanking the Red Sox over eight frames in his last outing, lowering his ERA to 2.87. I wouldn’t expect him to drop 30 here because the A’s make a living running counts. Of course, it didn’t matter much against Morton, and you could argue that Chirinos has been every bit as good as Morton lately. This still feels like a risk, but we know that the reward is high enough to chase it.
Middle Tier:
Lance Lynn ($9,000): I’m not a huge fan of this price, but Lance Lynn has a 2.40 ERA in two career starts at Fenway. The current Red Sox are only hitting .194 against Lynn in 93 at bats with three homers, eight runs, and 18 strikeouts. If you aren’t paying up for Chirinos, I trust Lynn a hell of a lot more than Hamels at Coors.
Cole Hamels ($8,100): Hamels has actually been solid at Coors. He has a 3.79 ERA in six career starts there. This incarnation of the Rockies isn’t great against lefties. Actually, they are only hitting .242 against Hamels in 165 at bats with five homers and 16 runs. The 38 strikeouts are low, and Hamels hasn’t been all that good on the road this year. Honestly, Plesac is my first choice, but Hamels isn’t the worst second option.
Bargain Pitchers:
Zach Plesac ($7,400): Plesac is still too cheap. He has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points in his three major league starts against the Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox. Not exactly weak offenses. Cincy has a lot of power, but most of it is right handed, and they strike out more than most teams. Plesac has 12 strikeouts over the last two games. I would say that he can come up with eight here. That puts him a long ways towards hitting that nice average.
Brett Anderson ($5,600): Beggars can’t be choosers, and the lower tier of pitchers is quite awful on a four game slate. Not much to say about Anderson except that he doesn’t get blown up. Very rarely does Anderson give up more than three runs in a start. The lack of strikeouts means his floor and ceiling aren’t more than ten points apart. You aren’t going to get much out of Anderson, especially against the Rays. He just seems safe. That’s about it.
My picks: Chirinos, Plesac
DraftKings MLB Early Notes 6-12:
Travis d’Arnaud, Avi Garcia, and Tommy Pham all have my attention against Brett Anderson. So does a super cheap Willy Adames. Anderson doesn’t allow a ton of homers, but guys on base are a different story. There will be a lot of crooked numbers for Rays hitters, just not necessarily a lot of 14’s hanging around.
Khris Davis is still super cheap, but I’m not sure I want any exposure to Yonny Chirinos right now. However, he has given up seven of the ten homers allowed at the Trop.
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DeScalfani is capable of good outings, but I don’t know that I would trust him against Cleveland. I would rather use a few bats. Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez stand out for their prices. I still like Lindor, even if he is expensive. Carlos Santana is the only current Indian with a homer against DeSclafani.
Mark Reynolds is only 4-22 against Hamels in his career, but two of those hits are homers. Arenado, Ian Desmond, and Daniel Murphy have the other homers. Strangely enough, Trevor Story has never faced Hamels, and he has teed off against lefties this year. The only question is how much money you have to spend on the bats in this game.
Senzatela hasn’t allowed a homer to the Cubs in 39 at bats, but he has allowed seven runs and a .333 average. It’s not like he’s been good. Schwarber and Rizzo are my two favorites here. I really hope Carlos Gonzalez is in the lineup today to save us money. You can’t really go wrong with Bryant and Javy Baez either. Victor Caratini is a good pick behind the plate, even though he’s really not a value here.
A super cheap Jackie Bradley Jr. is 3-6 with two homers against Lynn. Mookie has the other homer and three more of the RBI. I would probably limit my Red Sox exposure to those two just in case.
Rick Porcello has not fared well against the Rangers in his career, however, he has only allowed two homers in 221 at bats. Rougned Odor has one and Mazara has the other. Choo, Danny Santana, and Asdrubal Cabrera have hit him well enough for consideration today.
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