MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – June 12 – Got Wood(ruff)?
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday Night’s MLB DFS slate was all about offense – as 22 of the 25 top raw point plays were hitters including all of the top 7, with only Dakota Hudson, John Means and Trevor Bauer cracking those ranks among the 30 pitchers on the hill. Not only did the high-priced arms struggle on this slate, but the big expected offensive spot in Coors Field with the Cubs managed only 3 runs while the Brewers/Astros combined for 18 runs in the biggest slugfest of the night.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Wednesday Pitching Breakdown:
The 8 game Main Slate on Wednesday when it comes to pitching has a whole lot of names and multiple high-priced arms but the more I dig in, the less strikeout upside I see with the options available.
Make sure you get into the $400 FREE ROLL today from our friends at FantasyDraft!
There are only two arms on the slate with K rates of 25% or higher – both on the season and over the last 30 days – and they happen to be in the same game. One is obvious – Justin Verlander ($22.4K) while the other may come as a bit of a surprise to the casual fan – Brandon Woodruff ($14.5K).
Verlander is the clear top dog from a metrics perspective as his 30.9% K rate and 15.1% swinging strike rates are the top of any arm available today but Woodruff is not all that far behind with a 29.5% K rate and am 11.7% swinging strike rate – both of which are the top non-Verlander metrics of any arm here today.
The fact that they play in the same game presents us with an interesting option on this small(er) slate. We can go with both arms against each other which is something DFS players seem to rarely do as we look to build around the K upside while forgoing the “win potential” for one of our SP’s.
Conversely, we could plant our flag with one versus this other and I cannot believe I am saying this, but I think going Woodruff over Verlander actually is my preferred route.
Listen, Verlander is the better pitcher and has the highest ceiling of any arm in action but we are being asked to pay a premium for him here against a dangerous Brewers line-up that ranks top 10 in both ISO and wOBA against RHP this season. Woodruff meanwhile is going to take on an Astros team that is without Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa AND George Springer and this is a pitcher who has gone for 20+ fantasy points in 7 of his last 8 outings and has double-digit K outings in 2 of his last three starts. When you consider the weaker opponent and the massive price discount, I think dropping down to Woodruff on this slate makes a ton of sense.
Although I have been hesitant to eat the “Cheap Pitchers Versus the Marlins” chalk the last two days, there is no doubt it has been effective which puts Miles Mikolas ($14.9K) on my radar. After seeing Dakota Hudson (26 fpts) and Michael Wacha (21) put up strong outings the last two games in Miami, the same logic applies here to Mikolas that folks pushed for these other Cardinals value arms.
In fact, over the last 6 starts against the Marlins, every starting pitcher has gone for 18 or more fantasy points with 4 of the 6 going for 25 or more including Hudson, Julio Teheran, Mike Soroka and Freddy Peralta.
The issues for Mikolas usually stem from the left side of the plate as he has a .276 ISO against lefties this year but the Marlins will likely have 7 right-handers in this line-up today which seems to set up perfectly to go right back to the well here. In 2019, Mikolas has a 54% GB rate to RHB with a sub 2% walk rate and when you add in the fact he gets a massive ballpark boost in Miami and a significant pitcher’s umpire in Jim Wolf behind the plate – this is becoming a spot where Mikolas has a clear path to a 20 fantasy point type start and allows you to get all the bats you want today.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
Death, Taxes and the Minnesota Twins hitting home runs in 2019 – that my friends, are the things you can count on.
The Twins have the highest IRT, closing in on 6 runs, on this Main Slate as they will take on an opener and then LHP Tommy Millone and if there is any one stack you want a piece of today, this feels like it as the Twins lead the league in HR and ISO over the last 30 days by a solid margin with 56 HR’s and a .256 ISO.
Nelson Cruz and CJ Cron are the two lefty mashers in the middle of this order as they have monster .400+ ISO marks each against LHP with Eddie Rosario sandwiched in between them at a .211 mark. Over the last two seasons, Millone has given up a .200 ISO mark to lefties and a massive .266 mark to RHB with elevated fly ball and hard contact rates – basically everything is pointing towards the Twins today.
The Twins are not a cheap stack, so this becomes a spot that really supports dropping from Verlander down to Woodruff as an example so you can afford the big bats here that seemed prime to do damage today. If you are going full on stack, I love using Byron Buxton in the 9 hole as part of a wrap around stack as he is almost always ignored hitting that far down in the line-up.
The other spot offensively that catches my eye today is in Philly as we have 70+ degree temperatures and the wind blowing out to LF in Citizen’s Bank Park with Merril Kelly and Zach Eflin on the mound.
The pricing on Philly, specifically Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, both at $8.4K, feels far too cheap considering they have .240+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of last season. Eflin meanwhile continues to struggle significantly against lefties, sporting a .221 ISO mark, 43% fly ball rate and 36% HC rate against them over the last two seasons and this Arizona team has some serious pop from the left side.
Eduardo Escobar and David Peralta have .267 and .236 ISO marks respectively against righties in 2019 and alongside Ketel Marte, this is a trio that has 80-85% Medium to Hard contact rates against RHP this year which means we could see a lot of balls hit hard and a long ways against Eflin in this hitting environment.
Peralta from a pitch profile perspective seems like a steal at only $8K, as he hammers the slider at an over .300 ISO mark which is what Eflin will throw nearly 30% of the time as is primary secondary offering against lefties.
While I am normally an all-in stack kind of guy, on this slate I actually like the idea of using 2-3 man mini-stacks of the Twins/Phillies/Diamondbacks in an effort to spread out my exposure among three spots where I think we have serious power upside.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative ONLY and should not be used as a plug and play build.
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SP: Brandon Woodruff
SP: Miles Mikolas
IF: Eduardo Escobar
IF: Ketel Marte
IF: Rhys Hoskins
OF: Bryce Harper
OF: David Peralta
OF: Nelson Cruz
UTIL: CJ Cron
UTIL: Eddie Rosario
Slate Overview: This is a solid GPP slate for an 8 gamer as the decision on how to attack Justin Verlander will be the key decision point everyone makes. If JV has a vintage double-digit K game and drops 30-40 fantasy points, you are going to need him to win but I think pivoting off him and getting the leverage with Woodruff allows you “similar” K ability and more important;y, opens up a ton of salary space to build around the bats.
Enjoy the slate all – make sure you are checking out all our PGA DFS coverage as well for the US Open which tees off on Thursday!
PGA DFS Picks and Analysis - The 2019 US Open. dark. Next
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