NBA DFS: Finals Game 6 Showdown Picks

NBA DFS: Game 6 Showdown Picks

Hello there, NBA fans, and welcome to my latest Finals showdown article. I have been playing showdown on both sites all series long and have been able to profit so far. The Warriors survived elimination on Monday, so now tonight becomes possibly the last chance for you to play NBA DFS for four months!

I covered the NBA for five months this season and since then I’ve been on the MLB beat now for two months straight. I wanted to take an opportunity to put some NBA DFS content out there today for all of you who all still grinding the one game showdowns on FanDuel or DraftKings.

My goal is to give you both the highest percentage plays (for cash) and some lower owned, game-theory based picks for GPPs. Building rosters on FanDuel and Draftkings is very different with their pricing structures and scoring systems, but you usually need roughly the same combination of players on either site to finish in the money.

We now have a five-game sample size of data to use to help us determine which plays are the safest and have the most upside. In DFS, the larger the sample size, the more reliable the data becomes and the better we can feel about using it to be predictive.

Let’s take a quick review of game five and see what statistics and other info we can use when building our game five lineups.

NBA DFS: Game 5 Breakdown

The Warriors were able to keep their hopes of defending their title with a somewhat improbable 106-105 victory in Toronto in game five. I saw improbable because many of you probably witnessed the injury to Kevin Durant that forced him to leave the game early in the second quarter. Speculation is that he tore his Achilles tendon which would mean he’s not only done for the series but likely going to miss much of next season, too.

The Warriors continued to play well without KD, though and led all the way up until the midpoint of the fourth quarter when Kawhi Leonard took over and scored 10 straight points to give the Raptors the lead. Coach Nick Nurse called a timeout with the ball, up 5 points only to see the Warriors come out and hit three consecutive three-pointers to gain control.  Toronto closed to within one late but after GSW double-teamed Kawhi on the final possession he was forced to give it up and Kyle Lowry missed a corner three for the win badly off the side of the backboard.

The Warriors were led by Steph Curry’s 31-8-7 and Klay Thompson‘s 26-6-4. Draymond did what Draymond does and flirted with a triple-double posting a 10-10-8 line. We even had a Boogie Cousins sighting as he contributed 14 points and 6 boards off the bench in 19 minutes.

The Raptors played their core 7 guys roughly the same minutes, with starters Marc Gasol and Danny Green stealing a few more minutes back from Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka. Kawhi Leonard led Toronto with 26-12-5 but shot only 9-24 from the field. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry managed to stay on the court for 42 minutes and chipped in 18 points, 4 boards, and 6 assists.

You can check out the entire box score here if you want to dig any deeper into minutes, shot attempts, etc. And head over to Popcorn Machine if you want to check out the game flow, which allows you to see how each team ran their rotations and which players scored their fantasy points when.

NBA DFS: Cash Game Plays

Kawhi Leonard (16k FD, 11.8k DK)

I probably sound like a broken record, but please play Kawhi in your cash games and go heavy on him in tournaments again in game 6. The Warriors simply don’t have an answer for him and he’s playing at such an elite level. His averages through five finals games are 29.8-10.6-4.4. He continues to play aggressively, taking the ball to the hoop and getting to the foul line. Plus, his defensive stats give him a great ceiling.

Playing him in the MVP slot on FanDuel is smart for cash, but perhaps bumping him down to the STAR slot in GPPs will make you a little different. Fading him is completely out of the question for me. The “Board Man” is one game away from cementing his status as perhaps the NBA’s biggest (and weirdest) star.

Klay Thompson (11.5k FD, 9.2k DK)

At this price, I’m going to continue playing Thompson in my cash games.  Thompson’s scoring has been really consistent this series and he shot it well in game five, going 7-13 from three-point land. His shot attempts and involvement in the offense is not going anywhere.  He’s very capable of matching Steph in raw points and is considerably cheaper on both sites. He is going into my STAR or PRO slot on FanDuel and is an interesting choice for the captain on Draftkings.

NBA DFS: GPP Plays

Marc Gasol (10k FD, 7k DK)

Gasol matched his highest minutes total this series in game five with 31 minutes and had a solid game with 17-8-2. Coach Nurse clearly likes having him out there for his defense, passing, and rebounding and he’s one of the most skilled offensive big men in the game. He’s failed to hit 24 FD points in only one game so far this series and his well-rounded game is fantasy friendly.

Kyle Lowry (12k FD, 8k)

Lowry had his second best game of the series in game five. He missed that shot at the end, but he played well throughout and was hustling on defense and making plays all over the floor. His price continues to stay where he is likely to get overlooked by players who pay up for Kawhi and Steph and forced into rostering 3 players under 10k. I like him a lot for GPPs because we know he will play heavy minutes and get plenty of opportunities to rack up points in multiple categories.

Draymond Green (13.5 FD, 10.6 DK)

If Durant doesn’t suit up then Draymond is an easy pivot as he’s price the same on FanDuel and just a tad more on Draftkings. Dray has been solid throughout the series and will continue to log heavy minutes and rack up counting stats in this game. But if KD does play, then I’ll reduce my shares of Draymond as KD will likely gobble up some boards and steal some assists away from Dray as the offense will be running through KD more often than Dray.

NBA DFS: Top Value Plays

DeMarcus Cousins (8k FD, 5.8k DK)

There aren’t too many plays under 10k on FanDuel that I will be using in game six. Boogie Cousins is certainly one of them, as he’s priced the lowest of any of the star players on either team. Sure, his production has been volatile and he’s probably as likely to dud as he is to go off, but if he goes for 30+ FD points and you don’t have him in your lineup, you’re simply not cashing. I’ll probably end up around 50% exposure and I expect that to be over the field. With Kevon Looney out there grimacing in pain, I see Boogie with a chance to play substantial minutes in game six if he can stay out of foul trouble.

Danny Green (8.5k FD, 4.4k DK)

Green continues to be cheap and his “hit or miss” style of play is well-suited for GPPs only. We’ve seen him score as many 18 points in this series and as few as 3. His minutes continue to be stable though, and so he should get opportunities to make shots and get defensive stats. You’re going to need to some cap relief to fit the studs you want and you’re going to have to roster a few cheap plays. Green absolutely should be in consideration as one of the top value plays on the slate.

NBA DFS: Final Thoughts

If you’re playing showdowns on either site, it makes sense to make multiple lineups. Find the core plays that you feel really good about and then mix and match the secondary players around them. On FanDuel, you can play the same 5 guys in different lineups and just rotate players in and out of the MVP, STAR, and PRO slots to be different.

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Kawhi is still my top play in all formats, but in GPPs just remember that he will be 80% owned or more. I’m inclined to match the field of go all in, the risks simply outweigh the rewards in the single-game format even with game theory applied here.

My favorite Warriors on a point-per-dollar basis are Klay, Boogie, Draymond, and Curry in that order. Iguodala just isn’t making the cut for me and I’m not interested in rolling out Kevon Looney as he looks like he’s in a lot of pain.

For the Raptors, I like Kawhi, Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka in that order.

Siakam and Iguodala are fades for me.

Mix and match those chalky picks with the contrarian GPP picks to create dozens of unique lineups, and don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table to be different!

My favorite FanDuel combination right now is Kawhi-Dray-Thompson-Gasol-Cousins.

My favorite Draftkings combination is  Ibaka (capt), Cousins, Kawhi, Lowry, Klay, Gasol.

Thanks for taking the time to read my Finals Game 6 breakdown for NBA DFS showdown! Good luck in your contests! If you’re not already following me on Twitter, hit me up @ThunderDanDFS and make sure you are checking in here at FantasyCPR for the best in DFS content for all sports.