DraftKings MLB Picks June 13: Alex Gordon’s Homecoming

DraftKings MLB Picks June 13: Gordon’s Homecoming

We have a busy Thursday with 11 games overall. Two make up the early DraftKings MLB tournament. The other nine are the main DraftKings MLB tournament. As you would expect, most of the action and the good plays are in the main tournament. Does that mean the early is worth a look or not? We’ll get to that.

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I’ll bet Alex Gordon never thought he would get to play a major league baseball game in his home state. After all, Even Hall of Famers Sam Crawford (from Wahoo), Bob Gibson (Omaha), and Wade Boggs (Omaha) never got to play a major league game that counted in their home state of Nebraska. Gordon, a native of Lincoln, gets his chance tonight as the Royals take on the Tigers at Omaha’s TD Ameritrade Park. It will be the first ever major league game in the state of Nebraska.

The early is clear and nice. There is a 12 mph crosswind in Atlanta, but no threat of rain. The main slate is a different story. The rain in Boston should clear out before game time. Some rain is possible in Baltimore, New York, and Washington, but nothing that should cancel a game. Delays are possible though. Make sure you keep an eye out if you are planning on using arms in those areas. There is no wind to speak of though.

Last night was one of those nights that makes me want to quit DFS. Chalk Verlander struck out a career high 15 batters. The Marlins destroyed Mikolas. The Mariners got to Berrios. For only the second time all season I failed to cash in any of my eight lineups. I’m shocked that half of them hit triple digits.

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.

For you first time players, if you would like a free $10 ticket on DraftKings, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more!

DraftKings MLB Early Notes:

The early slate is tough, and I honestly understand if you skip it. There is money to be had, but there’s going to be luck involved. Julio Teheran is the highest priced pitcher, and the Pirates are hitting .262 against him with a homer and 12 RBI in 84 at bats with just 13 strikeouts. That’s far from ideal. However, Teheran is quietly having a really nice season for the Braves, and has a 1.93 ERA in five home starts.

On the other side, the Braves are only hitting .229 against Joe Musgrove, but they do have three homers and five runs in 48 at bats. The ten strikeouts are nice though, especially when you take a look at his price. In two starts against the Braves this year, Musgrove has come up with 26.7 DraftKings points. However, in one of those games he only threw 18 pitches since he was unfairly given the heave-ho by this same umpiring crew.

I have a feeling the umpires are unfairly going to keep a really close eye on this too. I wouldn’t be shocked if Musgrove did something worthy of getting tossed in this one. I love his price, but I’m nervous. That said, getting Musgrove at $4,800 less than Teheran could be key.

Yusei Kikuchi pitched a nice game against the Twins in Seattle, so I kind of ant to use him since he’s so cheap. The Mariners are hitting .270 with three homers and eight runs in 74 at bats against Pineda, but he does have 17 strikeouts.

All four pitchers look decent today, so where do we get separation? Pineda has been terrible at home, and gave up three solo homers to the Mariners in his first start against them this year. If anyone gets on base, there’s trouble. I’m avoiding Pineda for the price. I understand paying up for Teheran, especially since Kikuchi’s ERA on the season is almost 5. Musgrove is the only one I’m sold on. Pineda is the only one I’m truly off of. The other two are negotiable.

The first glance at the bats, I think I’m going Kikuchi. Ronald Acuna kills the Pirates, so I want him. Josh Donaldson is cheap and still pissed at Musgrove, but I honestly like Kyle Seager more. Colin Moran also looks cheap.

So does Ozzie Albies, but how many Braves do I want to throw at Musgrove and still use him as one of my pitchers? I can move off of Freeman for Edwin at 1B, and it’s easy to pick a cheap catcher. But 2B and SS are more shallow positions, and Albies and Dansby Swanson are really good options.

In the end, I ended up stacking Mariners. Mallex Smith, Dee Gordon, and Seager are all too cheap. I added Pittsburgh value to I could pay up for Teheran and used an Acuna one off.

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Jacob deGrom ($10,400): Aside from being blasted by the Marlins a couple of weeks ago, deGrom has given up two runs or less in every start since May 1st. The Cardinals have decent numbers against deGrom, but they got shut down by a rookie making his first start above AA last night. We have to think deGrom can do the same. As good as his starts have been since the first of May, deGrom has given up at least one run in every start since the May 1st game. That was his last scoreless outing.

Clayton Kershaw ($10,100): Kershaw’s career numbers against the current Cubs aren’t ideal, but he still owns a 2.57 ERA against the Cubs in ten career starts. On top of that, his numbers at Dodger Stadium are still very impressive. They are somewhat less impressive this year, but every home start has still been a quality start for Kershaw. His strikeout numbers against the current Cubs are still elite (47 in 132 at bats), so Kershaw is worth a look on a slate where I’m not crazy about any pitchers.

Middle Tier:

Zack Greinke ($9,300): Grienke’s numbers against the Nationals aren’t great, but he does have a 1.59 ERA in three career starts at Nationals Park. Aside from Greinke’s disaster against the Mets, he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a game since Opening Day. There is enough to like here, but the Nationals are a pretty dangerous team.

Marcus Stroman ($7,600): Camden Yards has been a house of horrors for Stroman, but in two starts against Baltimore this year, Stroman has a solid 25.6 DraftKings points. Stroman also should get a free win with Ynoa on the mound opposing him. Perhaps the most intriguing thing about Stroman here is the fact that he has not given up a home run in five road starts this year. I doubt that changes against Baltimore.

Bargain Pitchers:

Erick Fedde ($6,400): Fedde has been solid this year, posting a 2.94 ERA, but he only has 20 strikeouts and one win. Solid may not get it done against an Arizona offense that woke up in Philly. That said, Fedde has only allowed six runs in four starts since joining the rotation. He is a solid bargain on a slate where we are going to need it.

Ivan Nova ($4,400): Nova only gave up one run over six innings to the Yankees earlier this year. The bad news is that Nova has a 9.39 ERA in five home starts this year. Honestly, Nova is only in play so you can pay for any bats you want. His home ERA is in for a correction, and some of that will likely happen tonight. It’s easy to do when you can give up five runs and five innings and still lower your ERA. That wont result In a positive night for DFS though. There is plenty of risk here.

My picks: deGrom, Fedde; deGrom, Stroman; Kershaw, Nova

DraftKings MLB Stack Options:

Texas Rangers vs. David Price:

The stack place tonight may be against David Price. Hear me out: The Rangers are hitting .341 against Price in 179 at bats. That’s not a fluke…..that’s a trend! Shin-soo Choo is the only one to hit more than one homer against Price. He has two. Pence and a super cheap Jeff Mathis have the others. Asdrubal Cabrera, Logan Forsythe, Elvis Andrus, and Delino DeShields are all hitting well over .300 against Price. In fact, the Ranger with the worst career numbers against Price is Rougned Odor at 2-8. No one is out of play tonight for the Rangers.

New York Yankees vs. Ivan Nova:

I have no issue attacking Nova here either. Lefties hit him harder, but righties are still hitting .302 against Nova this year. Based on price and production, I think Didi Gregorius is my favorite tonight and Brett Gardner is second. All of the others are super expensive and nothing is guaranteed, though this is one of the safer places to attack.

Colorado Rockies vs. Cal Quantrill:

Poor Cal Quantrill is in Coors. He has been better on the road than at home, but I seriously doubt that translates here. Blackmon, David Dahl, and Daniel Murphy are going to get all of the attention but don’t sleep on Arenado and Story. They hit everything at Coors too. Ryan McMahon is a good play as well, and is cheap compared to the other bats in this game.

San Diego Padres vs. Jon Gray:

Yeah, Gray is better at home than on the road, but let’s not get crazy. His numbers aren’t great anywhere, and they are definitely not great against the Padres. He has strikeout upside, but the Padres are hitting .294 with seven homers and 16 runs in 126 at bats. Renfroe and Wil Myers have each homered off of Gray three times. Manny Machado has the other. I love Franmil Reyes in this spot at well.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jon Lester:

Lester’s numbers against the Dodgers aren’t horrible, but he does have a 4.55 career ERA at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have also scored 20 runs in 134 at bats. They don’t have a ton of homers, but there can still be some value here, particularly in the cheap right handed bats. For example, Kike Hernandez is just $3,400, but has homered against Lester twice and driven in six. Russell Martin and David Freese have scored four and driven in two each and are $3,300 and $4,300 respectively. You’re going to need some of this value with all of the expensive bats in Coors.

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

Can I really justify stacking Blue Jays? If I ever did, it would be against Gabriel Ynoa. At any rate, I’m pretty high on Biggio and Vlad Jr. I can’t fault using Randal Grichuk or Lourdes Gurriel for the price.

You could probably go after Erick Fedde here too. Eduardo Escobar and Ketel Marte are probably the best places to attack here. I do like Adam Jones back in the Beltway, and a red hot David Peralta as well. Fedde hasn’t been blown up yet this year, so I’m not a big fan of a stack here.

This is a bad spot for Tyler Skaggs. d’Arnaud and Guillermo Heredia have both homered against him already. Avi Garcia, Willy Adames, Tommy Pham, and Yandy Diaz are all worth a look here as well. Austin Meadows hits lefties well enough to put in there if you have money to spare.

Ryan Yarbrough has been prone to blow ups all year. The Angels are finally starting to hit lefties, so I’m not sure I want him here. Yarbrough’s home ERA is still above 7 and Mike Trout plays for the Angels. Kole Calhoun has the third most homers against left handed pitching since the start of the 2015 season, so he is in play too. Shohei Ohtani is hitting everything, and Cesar Puello is very dangerous against lefties. This could end up a bad night for Yarbrough.

Jack Flaherty is pitching better, but not on the road. His road ERA is still near 6 and he failed to strike out even a single batter last week against the Cubs. This looks like a spot to throw Amed Rosario and Pete Alonso at him. Conforto and Jeff McNeil look good as well if you want more than two Mets.

Surprisingly enough, Matt Boyd’s career numbers against the Royals aren’t that good. However, that’s not why I’m off of Boyd tonight. The big reason is that the game is played in Omaha’s TD Ameritrade Park. The park is well known for its lack of home runs during the College World Series, but this is not a cavernous park by any means. It’s only 335 down the lines and 375 to the power alleys. 408 to center is a healthy distance, but you can get one out just about anywhere else.

You can make a case for Boyd as well. Boyd had a great 2013 College World Series at TD Ameritrade as a member of the Oregon State Beavers. Boyd pitched for the Beavers in the first 1-0 game in the CWS since 1977, staving off elimination against Indiana.

Mondesi has the only homer against Matt Boyd so far, but Whit Merrifield has scored seven runs and driven in four against Boyd. Those two look pretty appetizing tonight. I could make room for Jorge Soler as well.

Homer Bailey doesn’t give up a lot of homers, but tonight could be the exception with it only 335 down the lines. Nick Castellanos, Christin Stewart, and Ronny Rodriguez all look good. So does Niko Goodrum if he’s able to play. And Miggy hitting in a college park? Yes please!

Happ has been hit hard by the White Sox, and tonight likely wont be any different. Yonder Alonso, Tim Anderson, and James McCann have the homers so far, but Leury Garcia is worth a look too. Garcia is 3-9 with three RBI. I’m also a big fan of Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez here.

DraftKings MLB one-off plays:

For whatever reason, Marcus Stroman has been lit up at Camden Yards, posting a 5.47 ERA in five starts. His career ERA against Baltimore is 3.52. Even this incarnation of the Orioles has hit Stroman for a .351 average, two homers, and eight runs in only 57 at bats. Still, Jonathan Villar is the only one I’m really interested in. Trey Mancini is 6-13 lifetime against Stroman, but is very expensive.

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If you want to take a run at Greinke, there are places to do so. Matt Adams, Kurt Suzuki, and Anthony Rendon have all homered off of him. I don’t know that I would go heavily after any of them though. Adams is just 2-15 against Greinke. Rendon is 1-9.

Welcome to the Cardinals lineup, home of the one-offs. I wouldn’t stack against deGrom, but using one or two of these guys at super cheap prices is not a terrible idea. DeJong, Dexter Fowler, Matt Wieters, Matt Carpenter, and Marcell Ozuna have all taken deGrom deep in the past. Only Ozuna is above $4,000.

Adrian Sampson is on quite a roll right now, only allowing more than one run once since May 12th. However, I don’t trust him at Fenway. The bad part of this is that the Boston bats aren’t discounted either. I see most of them as not worth the price, but Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, and Brock Holt are all available for reasonable prices. I don’t see Sampson getting lit up here, but I would think he gives up more than one run.

If you take CarGo’s numbers out of the Cubs numbers against Kershaw, Kershaw’s get a whole lot better. Rizzo has two homers against Kershaw and is 6-16. I also think he comes at lower ownership being a lefty. Javy Baez is about the only other Cub I have interest in. There are much better places to attack for the prices the Cubs hitters are commanding against one of the game’s better pitchers.

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