Fantasy Football: Beware the Trendy First-Rounder

The Fantasy Football breakout star, the rookie sensation, the free-agent acquisition…

Year after year there’s always one or two players who climb to the top of fantasy football draft boards after being relatively unknown in previous years.

For some, the time among the “fantasy elite” was short-lived. Although others would become perennial league-winners.

Let’s take a look at some of the trendiest first-round picks from the past 5 seasons – plus an early but trendy pick for 2019!

Fantasy Football Trendy 1st Rounders: Montee Ball (2014)Montee Ball? Oh yea, THAT guy! Good old Montee. He was one of the most popular fantasy draft picks going in to the 2014 season after Knowshon Moreno’s departure cleared the way for Ball to be Denver’s lead back.

Even though Montee wasn’t super effective in the previous season (his rookie year), he was still valued as a late first/early second round pick in most fantasy drafts. If you were one of those poor souls who actually took Ball that early then you were in for a rough season.

After 3 up-and-down games, and a week 4 bye, Ball suffered a groin injury that essentially ended his season. It was a tough break for a promising young talent who was one of the greatest college players of all-time. Tough break for his fantasy owners as well.

Fantasy Football Trendy 1st Rounders: Allen Robinson (2016)After tying for the league lead in receiving touchdowns and finishing as the 4th best fantasy receiver (6th in PPR) the prior year, expectations were sky-high for Allen Robinson heading in to the 2016 season.

He became a consensus top-15 fantasy player, and one of the game’s most exciting new stars.

"Robinson truly broke out last year, but early indications this off-season and preseason are that he’s taken his game to another level in 2016. – Kirby Lee/USA Today"

His breakout campaign had propelled Robinson to the tier of perennially elite receivers like A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, and Dez Bryant – although that status would be short-lived.

Unfortunately for those who invested in Robinson, the young receiver was due for some significant regression. In 2016, he failed to post 100+ receiving yards in a game until week 10, and finished as the 28th best receiver in standard scoring – falling well short of expectations.

Fantasy Football Trendy 1st Rounders: Todd Gurley (2016)Todd Gurley won Offensive Rookie of the Year and scored the 5th most fantasy points (standard) of any running back in 2015. Many fantasy owners expected that dominance to continue in to Gurley’s sophomore campaign, and viewed him as a top-5 player for 2016.

But just like Montee Ball in 2014, and Allen Robinson in 2016, the great Todd Gurley wouldn’t live up to the hype.

Before the Sean McVay era, the Ram’s passing attack posed almost no threat to defenses. This allowed opposing teams to stack the box against Gurley – effectively neutralizing LA’s only decent player at the time. He would finish the year as the 20th best RB in standard leagues (15th in PPR).

Obviously, Todd Gurley has been pretty much unstoppable since then. He was the #1 RB in standard scoring for 2017 and 2018.

Fantasy Football Trendy 1st Rounders: Jay Ajayi (2017)2016 was a crazy year for Jay Ajayi. After an injury to Arian Foster made him Miami’s lead back, Ajayi would go on to be the 7th best fantasy back (in standard leagues) from week 5 to week 17.

He would also become the fourth player in NFL history with 3 games of 200+ rushing yards in a single season.

Ajayi would enter 2017 as the Dolphins primary running back, and a popular pick in fantasy drafts. Most leagues saw Ajayi chosen in the late first/early second rounds.

By now I’m sure you’ve noticed the trend I’m trying to illustrate – the players who enter the top tier of fantasy options as a result of one breakout year often fall back to earth.  Ajayi was no exception to this trend in 2017.

The Dolphins running back struggled to find the end zone – going without a touchdown until week 9.  He would finish as the 33rd best RB in standard scoring.

Fantasy Football Trendy 1st Rounders: Alvin Kamara (2018)Not every breakout star is due for a correction. Enter Alvin Kamara. I’d be lying to you if I said the Saints third-round draft pick was anywhere near my fantasy radar going in to 2017, but that would certainly change.

Despite splitting carries with Mark Ingram (who also had a great season), Kamara would finish 2017 as the 3rd best RB in PPR. He led all running backs in receiving yards, and was ridiculously efficient on the ground. His 6.07 yards per rush was the most by any NFL rookie ever.

Many experts expected that efficiency to drop off when Kamara was given a larger role in 2018. Although his yards per attempt did decline, his fantasy numbers were almost identical to his breakout campaign.

Kamara finished as the 4th best RB for standard and PPR scoring – proving the doubters wrong and making his fantasy owners very happy.

Fantasy Football Trendy 1st Rounders: Saquon Barkley (2018)And then there’s Saquon…

It’s crazy to think that a rookie was regarded as a consensus first-round pick in fantasy drafts. It’s even crazier to think that he would end up exceeding those expectations.

After an impressive career at Penn State, and an absolutely ridiculous performance at the draft combine, the Giants drafted Barkley with the 2nd overall pick – making him the highest drafted RB since Reggie Bush.

Some believed there was no way Barkley could live up to the expectations, but it wouldn’t take long for him to silence any skeptics. He was a top-5 RB in the first 3 weeks of the season, and finished as the #1 RB for PPR scoring in 2018 (2nd in standard).

He also managed to break just about every NFL record for rookie running backs in the process.

Going in to 2019 there is a strong case for Saquon as the #1 overall player for fantasy. His rookie season was so good that even if he does just slightly worse in 2019, he would still be worth a first-round pick.

It’s pretty difficult to imagine any type of regression from a player of Saquon’s caliber. We’ll see if he can continue to beat expectations.

BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 04: James Conner #30 of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks on prior to the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on November 4, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)

Fantasy Football Trendy 1st Rounders: James Conner (2019)

Who will be this year’s trendiest first-rounder? Early indications are that it might be James Conner

Conner was solely a handcuff option until Le’Veon Bell’s contract holdout opened the door for him. Conner proved that he was worthy of a starting role, and even had some Steelers fans saying: “Le’Veon who?”

Despite missing 3 games due to injury, Conner finished the year as a top-10 RB in standard and PPR.

Going in to 2019, Conner will be the unquestioned lead back in Pittsburgh. This status has many people thinking he might be worth a late first/early second round pick in fantasy drafts.

Will Conner be more of a Montee Ball, or an Alvin Kamara? History has shown mixed results when it comes to the one-year breakouts. If you have an appetite for risk, or if Conner is just “your guy”, then go ahead and draft him with your first or second pick.

But if he doesn’t live up to the hype – you can’t say you weren’t warned.