DraftKings MLB Picks June 14: K is for Cole
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks June 14: K is for Cole
We have another 15 game monster for our DraftKings MLB tournaments on Flag day. What exactly is Flag Day? Well, it’s the day we officially adopted our flag in 1777. That’s right, the flag is 242 years old today. Let’s try and hit that total tonight!. There are aces, faux aces, values, dumpster fires, a game in Coors Field, and Shelby Miller in Coors Field East. This is going to be fun! First, the weather.
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There isn’t much for rain, but some wind could shake things up. There’s the normal winds out to center for both games in the Bay Area, but lets get to the ones that could actually have an impact on games. There is a 12 mph wind out to right in Baltimore, and its 14 mph out to right in New York.
Detroit is the only place with the wind coming in enough to affect anything. It’s a brisk 15 mph in from right. There is a gusty 18 mph wind out to left in Chicago, so look out on the South Side. We have a nice 12 mph wind to left in Minneapolis. If the roof is open in Houston, it will be a 12 mph wind straight out to center.
Unfortunately, Alex Gordon was scratched so he couldn’t play a game in his home state, but the Royals still got to CWS hero Matt Boyd in Omaha. Nicky Lopez, who played his college ball at Creighton, got his first major league home run, so there was still a good narrative for the first major league baseball game in the state I’ve lived in for more than half my life.
As for the lineups, pitching doesn’t mean much. I had 0.1 from Erick Fedde and a brilliant outing from Homer Bailey to go with Blackmon, Story, Machado, Cavan Biggio, and Vlad Jr. That lineup cracked the top 750, so it was a solid night.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
For you first time players, if you would like a free $10 ticket on DraftKings, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more!
DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Gerrit Cole ($11,900): I’m surprised that Cole isn’t higher. The Blue Jays strike out like Adam Dunn on a bender. ALL of them do. The strikeout upside alone has Cole in the 30’s. Forget the ERA for a minute. Cole has 130 strikeouts in just 84.2 innings pitched. This is an absurd ratio that we haven’t seen since dinosaurs Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan roamed the baseball landscape. Scherzer and Verlander have been close to this pace, but not quite there. I don’t care if Cole gives up a few runs. He’s a legit threat for 15 or more strikeouts tonight.
Max Scherzer ($11,500): Mad Max has allowed a .252 average and six homers to his former team in only 103 at bats. The good news is that they only have seven runs and all of them were driven in by two people. The 25 strikeouts is a little lower than Max is accustomed to, but we have seen nothing this year that says Scherzer’s strikeouts are down. Over his last four starts, Scherzer has given up just two runs in 27 innings and racked up 39 strikeouts. This is a very risky fade.
Blake Snell ($10,000): Snellzilla at home. It’s a thing. Angels against lefties. It’s also a thing, though not maybe as much as it was before the return of Ohtani. Not only does Ohtani hit lefties well, but he just lifted this whole offense. I still have no issues running Snell out there against a team that is only hitting .211 with one run and seven strikeouts in 19 at bats. Yeah, it’s a small size, but Snell’s home splits are not. Having five pitchers priced higher than Snell today is just ridiculous.
Middle Tier:
Trevor Richards ($9,000): Honestly, looking at what’s around him, Richards feels overpriced. Especially when you can get the massive strikeout upside of Heaney for less. I usually don’t put much into small sample sizes, but this one is at least interesting. The current Pirates have faced Richards 15 times. They have zero hits and zero walks. I don’t know what else you want to see. Richards is unhittable! Seriously though, this is one of the better spots you’ll have for Richards, even if his price is a touch high.
Andrew Heaney ($8,800): The Rays aren’t as good against lefties as they are righties, but that’s about the only silver lining. Heaney is going to give up some runs. As long as you accept that, everything else is going to be good. Heaney’s strikeout upside is as good as anyone on the slate, and we have two of the best in the majors on this slate. That’s how high Heaney’s upside is.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,000): There’s risk involved. You know that when you decide to play a pitcher with a 5 ERA. E-Rod has his best game of the season against the Orioles earlier this year, putting up 29.2 DraftKings points in that one. Worried about Camden Yards? That hasn’t bothered E-Rod so far. His career ERA in eight starts at Camden Yards is 2.80. Oh, and the Orioles are only hitting .230 with two homers and four runs to go with a staggering 29 strikeouts in 74 at bats. This is as good as you can get with E-Rod.
Bargain Pitchers:
Adam Plutko ($7,200): There isn’t a lot to like here aside from the fact that he’s playing the Tigers. Plutko has little strikeout upside, but he held the Yankees to two runs in his last start and the only team that really got to him was the Rays. I expect Plutko to be somewhere in between acceptable and good, which is probably worth this price tag. Don’t expect miracles though.
Tyler Mahle ($6,700): Mahle has a 2.25 ERA in five home starts this year. Yes, the Rangers have power, but they also lose the DH tonight. That means they either have to sit Choo or shuffle the outfield. DeShields is the obvious choice to be benched, but can Choo play center? Either the offense or defense, or both, take a hit here. I’ll trust Mahle’s home splits here.
Brad Keller ($5,800): Keller is an average pitcher with little upside, but he has had a couple of solid outings against the Twins in his career. He’ll get you about a dozen DraftKings points, which is solid for a value play. Keller is never very good, but he usually isn’t bad either. If average is good enough for you, Keller is your man.
Marco Gonzales ($5,300): Gonzales picked up a solid 14.7 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Oakland. His ERA is also a healthy 3.02 on the road this year and he has a 3.00 ERA in the Coliseum. This is lining up about as good as can be for Gonzales here. The A’s are only hitting .221 against Marco in 86 at bats with two homers, eight RBI, and an impressive 26 strikeouts. That’s plenty good enough for this price range.
My picks: Cole, Heaney; Cole, Snell; Snell, Gonzales; Cole, Scherzer
DraftKings MLB Stack Options:
Cleveland Indians vs. Ryan Carpenter:
Carpenter has a 10.53 ERA in four home games. I don’t see Cleveland doing anything to help that average. Lindor and Jose Ramirez are my favorites here. Ramirez is still way underpriced here. Jordan Luplow has been clobbering lefties. Carlos Santana has turned back the clock about ten years. Oscar Mercado is coming around as well. The best part is that only Lindor is super expensive. This is a very affordable stack.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Drew Smyly/Shelby Miller:
Smyly will likely come on in relief of Miller, but it’s not like it matters. Smyly has an 8.40 ERA. Miller’s is 9.47. There’s a lot to like about the absurd power of the Reds here. Puig, Suarez, Nick Senzel, Derek Dietrich, Votto, Winker, Barnhart, Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, Ken Griffey, Johnny Bench, stack them all! This is going to get ugly for the Rangers.
Houston Astros vs. Aaron Sanchez:
The numbers on Sanchez are still pretty good, but he has given up ten runs in 15 innings over his last three starts. Something is wrong. The Astros aren’t as potent as usual, but there is still plenty to like here, starting with Yordan Alvarez. Remember him? He goes one game without a homer and everyone forgets. Josh Reddick and Alex Bregman are my next two targets. After that, it’s Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel. You could punt Mayfield if you need money. I also want Myles Straw if he starts.
Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Gibson:
Hey kids, want to be contrarian? Here’s your chance! Old habits die hard, and even though Gibson is in the middle of a renaissance season, the Royals still beat him like a pinata earlier this season. Overall, the Royals are hitting .331 in 118 at bats against Gibson. That’s no fluke. They also have four homers and 20 runs. Alex Gordon himself is 16-48 with two homers and nine RBI. If Gordon is healthy, he’s in there for me. Duda and Mondesi have the other homers. Ryan O’Hearn is 5-6 against Gibson so far. Whit Merrifield has three runs and four RBI. There are plenty of good options here.
Colorado Rockies vs. Cal Quantrill:
Remember what I said about Quantrill last night? It all still holds true tonight. Poor Cal Quantrill is in Coors. He has been better on the road than at home, but I seriously doubt that translates here. Blackmon, David Dahl, and Daniel Murphy are going to get all of the attention but don’t sleep on Arenado and Story. They hit everything at Coors too. Ryan McMahon is a good play as well, and is cheap compared to the other bats in this game. Again, there are no wrong Rockies just like there is apparently no wrong way to eat a Reese’s, but that’s another story for another day.
San Diego Padres vs. Jeff Hoffman:
Hoffman has been atrocious with a ball in his hand this year. He has a 7.20 ERA at home and 9.28 on the road. Add to that the fact that this bullpen is not known for pitching well either, and you have a recipe for another high scoring game in the Rockies. Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are my favorite targets, but Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, and Wil Myers aren’t far behind. The best part is that the Padres are quite a bit cheaper than the Rockies bats, and most have just as much upside.
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
There’s no reason to reach tonight. It seems like playing Robbie Ray would be reaching. He’s going to get some strikeouts, but Dozier, Kendrick, and Gerardo Parra have homered off of him in the past. Rendon is 3-7 with three runs. Michael Taylor is 2-5 and is super cheap if he plays.
For some reason, Andrew Cashner has not been horrible against Boston so far. That’s not to say it wont happen tonight, but the only thing that really stands out is Xander Bogaerts at 3-11 with a homer and four RBI. Mookie and Christian Vazquez have the other homers, but no one really has can’t miss numbers against Cashner. NOTE: if Jimmy Yacabonis ends up starting this game, stack Boston bats!
$8,400 looks steep for a guy with one major league start this year, but that’s where we are at with Daniel Poncedeleon. He looked good against the Brewers in St Louis back on April 23rd, but CitiField is much smaller. The Mets have a few good bats in that lineup. I do like Amed Rosario and Conforto for sure. And you really can’t go wrong with Pete Alonso.
I’m looking for reasons not to stack against Steven Matz, and all I can come up with right now is that he has a 1.80 ERA in five home starts. The Cardinals have just punished him though. The Redbirds are hitting .333 with six homers and 14 runs in just 57 at bats. Both DeJong and Paul Goldschmidt have two homers each. Yadi Molina and Matt Wieters have the others. Carpenter, Ozuna, and Kolten Wong are all hitting .333 or better. You can easily turn this into a full stack. It wouldn’t be hard.
I don’t know what to do with the Marlins. I stack and they score one run. I use a pitcher against them and they go for eight. I do like some against Steven Brault though. Alfaro, Harold Ramirez, Garrett Cooper, and Brian Anderson all hit lefties well and they are all very affordable.
Nick Pivetta didn’t even last five innings in his first start against the Braves this year, so why would we avoid him? Dansby Swanson and Nick Markakis have both homered against Pivetta before. Freddie Freeman is 6-20 with three RBI. I like Albies and Josh Donaldson as well. They both look underpriced.
I’m torn on Max Fried. His overall numbers are still solid, but he has given up two or more runs in every start since May 1st, and three or more in all but one of those. It’s hard to ignore his recent struggles, especially on the road, even though he has looked good against the Phillies both times he’s faced them in his young career. Scott Kingery and Rhys Hoskins are my favorite place to take shots here. A really cheap Maikel Franco is tempting as well.
I wouldn’t trust CC Sabathia and his 5.68 road ERA, especially against a team with this much right handed power. Tim Anderson and Welington Castillo have the homers so far, but I want all of Eloy Jimenez here. Yoan Moncada too. No Jose Abreu though. He is 0-11 lifetime against CC.
There’s a lot to like for the Twins here, but they have never really hit Keller hard. Max Kepler has the only homer against Keller. My issue with the Twins is that most of them are $4,500 or more. On a slate with Coors on it and BP Texas pitchers in Cincinnati, you better be damn sure they’re going to light Keller up. I’m just not there. I can sit here and make a case for Cruz, Polanco, and Rosario, but my favorite plays are probably Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez.
Piscotty and Khris Davis have the homers against Marco Gonzales so far. Those are the two I would go after him with tonight as well. Matt Chapman and Semien look pretty cheap too if you don’t trust Marco’s road success thus far.
Normally I would be all over Chris Bassitt here, but his home numbers aren’t great and this Seattle offense is back to hitting just about everything again. They just scored 19 runs in three games in Minneapolis, and that was with facing Berrios. The returns of Dee Gordon and Kyle Seager have been huge, and they are both priced low enough to use. Mallex Smith and Shed Long are starting to hit too and none of them are very expensive.
There is no part of me that trusts Kyle Hendricks away from Wrigley. At home he has been a machine. On the road, he has a 4.89 ERA. The Dodgers aren’t going to help with that. They have smacked three homers against Hendricks in just 33 at bats. Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Justin Turner have the homers. Cody Bellinger went 1-2 with a run the only time he faced Hendricks.
DraftKings MLB one-off plays:
If you want to go after Scherzer, it had better be with Adam Jones. Jones is 13-35(.371) with four homers and five RBI against Scherzer. David Peralta also has two solo shots against Mad Max.
The Orioles have a lot of right handed hitters, but only Trey Mancini has hit Eduardo Rodriguez well. I suppose you could take a cheap shot with Wilkerson or Hanser Alberto, but using Orioles feels like a way to lose money.
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Heaney isn’t going to pitch a shutout, so I don’t even think I’m opposed to going after him pretty hard. However, outside of Avi Garcia and maybe Pham, I’m not sure who I really want. You could play Zunino or d’Arnaud as cheap catcher punts with upside, but that’s about it.
I like Mike Trout for the Angels, but that’s about it. I suppose I would be okay with Ohtani given the price, but on a full slate there’s no reason to chase a guy like Snell unless you are trying to leverage ownership.
I kind of want to take a run at Plutko, but his peripheral numbers are solid. He’s not allowing a ton of baserunners, but he has allowed six homers in three starts. Goodrum and Castellanos are probably the best shots to take at him.
I know the current Pirates have not reached base against Richards, and I know that Josh Bell and Colin Moran are among them. So is Gregory Polanco. Add in Dickerson and Marte and there’s your 0-15. However, I still like Moran and Polanco for the price. Bell and Marte look too high, but the other two are priced right if you want to take a shot at Richards.
I have to think the Rangers leave Choo in the lineup, so he’s a solid pick. So are Odor and Mazara, but I wouldn’t use more than one in any line. I believe Mahle has a strong game.
I’m a big Giolito fan, but not for that massive price against the Yankees. Hicks and Brett Gardner have both homered off of him in the past. I could see using Didi as a one off as well.
My Blue Jays exposure will be limited to Cavan Biggio fresh off of his career night or Vlad Jr. I’m really not that thrilled with either one of them, truth be told.
Rich Hill continues to be solid, and he has pitched well against his former team, but his chances of scoring what the others priced in his range tonight do is very low. Hill just doesn’t see enough innings anymore. If he goes six and strikes out ten, but both Cole and Scherzer go eight and strike out 12, Hill is left behind by quite a bit. I’m not paying for little upside. I may even take a shot at him with Bryant or Baez.
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