Tyson Fury vs. Tom Schwarz: Preview and prediction

Tyson Fury is a heavy favorite heading into his bout with Tom Schwarz, but there’s always a puncher’s chance in boxing. Here’s what to expect on June 15.

In December of 2018, Tyson Fury (27-0-1, 19 KOs) dramatically got off the canvas after a brutal knockdown at the hands of Deontay Wilder to earn a draw. Many thought that Fury deserved the decision. It might have been the best performance of his career. Six months later, he’s ready to fight again against Germany’s Tom Schwarz (24-0, 16 KOs).

Going from Wilder to Schwarz is a big let down to fans, but Fury’s entering the first fight of his multi-year co-promotional deal with Top Rank. Fury and Top Rank elected to play it safe in their initial bout.

On the surface, Schwarz looks like a respectable opponent. He’s undefeated, has a 67 percent knockout rating, and has good size at 6-foot-5. The problem is that numbers don’t throw punches, and Schwarz fight stats are misleading.

Schwarz had a successful amateur career. He medaled at two separate German amateur national championships but lacked competition at the international level. He’s only 25 years old, but he hasn’t accomplished enough to ready himself for Fury.

Fury is a proven quantity. He defeated Wladimir Klitschko in 2015 to win three of the four major heavyweight titles. His mental health issues compounded with substance abuse derailed his career, but his draw against Wilder was one of the best comeback stories of 2018. The question is, can Fury sustain the momentum to become champion again?

During the pre-weigh-in on Friday, June 14, Fury came in at 263 pounds, which is 6.5 pounds more than he was against Wilder. That might raise a few eyebrows, but it shouldn’t. Fury has weighed at or above 260 pounds on several occasions including his bouts against Derek Chisora and Christian Hammer. He stopped them both. After all, they say muscle weighs more than fat. Let’s hope that true in Fury’s case.

After Andy Ruiz Jr.’s recent destruction of Anthony Joshua, many wonder when the next underdog is going to pull off a big upset. Schwarz has a puncher’s chance because he’s a boxer. However, he’s no Ruiz. Ruiz fought A-level competition, and Schwarz hasn’t.

In 24 fights, Schwarz has only fought outside of Germany twice, and both of those fights were in the Czech Republic. Las Vegas and the MGM Grand Garden Arena are a whole new world compared to where Schwarz has been. He’s fighting in the major league for the first time, and that could rattle him mentally.

Schwarz has a perfect record and size, but not much else. He lacks hand speed. Schwarz likes to throw a flicking jab as a distraction, but it’s too slow and he vulnerable with he leaves it out there too long.

He also carries his right hand below the chin, which allows opponents easy access to his chin. Schwarz’s feet are agile, but he lacks shoulder movement which enables opponents to pin him against the ropes as Senad Gashi did in 2018. If Gashi wasn’t so aggressive with his head, he could have given Schwarz his first defeat.

This fight should end in one of two ways: Fury by KO or Fury by unanimous decision. The outcome depends on how aggressive Fury is willing to be. Much of the time he likes to coast to a decision, but there’s a good chance he wants to impress the public with a knockout.

Fury vs. Schwarz takes place on Saturday, June 15. ESPN+ is the only place to catch the fight. Main event coverage begins at 10 p.m. ET.