Can James Conner repeat last years production?

The 2018 season was a breakout year for James Conner. When Le’Veon Bell sat out the beginning of the season, the expectation was that Conner would be an admirable fill in until Bell came back.

This was not the case as he blew away these projections. In his first year, James Conner ran for 135 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. He ended the season as the 6th best RB in PPR scoring and people starting to forget about the Bell drama as he sat out the rest of the year.

Can James Conner repeat last years production? I will debate the yes and no sides. In the end, I will give my verdict. When I looked closely at the numbers there were some trends that surprised me.

Yes

The Steelers will run the ball more. Taking a look into the Steelers stats the last five years, the more times they ran the ball the more they won. In 2017 they had 437 rushing attempts on the season and finished 13-3. Last year they only had 345 attempts (lowest total in FIVE years)  and missed the playoffs. This increase in opportunities will result in a better season for Conner.

The focal point of the offense will be the run. There are too many questions in the passing game. Antonio Brown is gone and what is left is one proven star in Juju Smith Schuster, a rookie, a second-year WR that had a bad rookie campaign and a newly signed under-performing player his entire career.

The TEs have only one weapon who is injury prone and nothing behind him. The drafting of Bennie Snell proves to me that the Steelers want to commit to the run game. They now have the depth to make it work.

This depth gives Conner an opportunity to be fresh all year. In 2018 Conner seemed to break down in the second half. In week 10 on he never had more than 15 attempts in one game and went down for three contests at the end of the year (weeks 14-16).

His attempts in 5 games were 19-31 from week 1-9. If Conner stays healthy and takes even a small step forward he could be one of the elite backs in this league.

Conner has shown he can be an asset in the passing game. In college, he was not asked to catch many balls. In four years he only had 30 receptions but year one in the NFL he had 55! He definitely has the ability and if he is more involved in the passing game this could be huge for his PPR production.

No

The increased depth at RB will hurt Conner’s chances to repeat this level of production. Jaylen Samuels will be used more this year. I think he will be used as a passing back. A third down weapon that may come in to relieve Conner in obvious passing situations. This will hurt Conners value.

The Steelers have hired a new RB coach and interestingly enough he was Samuels coach at NC State which makes me believe this even more. When the Steelers drafted Bennie Snell I immediately thought that he could vulture some of Conner’s goal line touches and TDs.

More mouths to feed could lead to fewer carries/opportunities for James Conner. So basically if Conner’s receptions, rush attempts, and TDs decrease then his PPR production will take a major hit.

In the second half of last year James Conner broke down and the majority of his production was in a few games. In only 7 games last year he scored over 15 PPR points, that is not elite. If he cannot improve on this stat he will not remain an RB1.

The Steelers also stopped using him after week nine. He never had more than 15 carries the rest of the year and only had one game over 14 PPR points.

Verdict = TIE

I think this can go either way. It is concerning that he only had a few big games and the Steelers stopped using him in the second half. Did they know something we don’t? I am not sure if he can hold up in the NFL for 17 games but the increased depth will help keep him healthy but will it hurt his fantasy scoring? I think the wildcard here is Samuels.

How will he be used? The traditional backup or passing down back? I think Snell is the more traditional number 2 but this remains to be seen. The Steelers are also thin at TE so maybe they put Samuels in that position at times? The stats are clear that they need to run more and I believe they will.

Whatever happens, this will be a fun situation to watch and who knows? Maybe all three backs will have value this year.