Main DraftKings MLB Picks June 15: Is Odorizzi an ace?
By Mike Marteny
Main DraftKings MLB Picks June 15: Is Odorizzi an ace?
We have a pretty even split for our DraftKings MLB tournaments today. We have six games that start at 3:05 eastern or 5:10 eastern and eight more that start after 7pm eastern for the main slate. The Rays-Angels tilt at 12:05 eastern is in its own little showdown tournament. This will focus on the eight game main slate.
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Rain is more prominent in the main slate. There is a chance of rain in Minneapolis, but mostly later in the game. If there’s a delay, it’s probably getting suspended. The 12 mph wind in from center isn’t good for bats either. Rain is possible in Denver, but it wont be anything that sticks around for long.
Rain is more likely in Cincinnati, but if it does rain there, it should move through and the game will play at some point in time. Plus, with it being an interleague tilt, they will wait longer on this one if they need to.
The real problem spot looks to be Chicago. Rain is likely most of the afternoon and evening up until around midnight. Honestly, I feel like this one definitely wont be safe for arms, and they’ll be lucky to get it in. Keep a close eye if you plan on using anyone from this game.
Last night’s run totals were crazy, so you know the DraftKings points were. I put in eight lineups. Seven of those went over 150. Three went over 200 with the top one at 223. That was my highest total ever, and I still barely cracked the top 200. Oh well, a win is a win. I’m happy with that.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Jake Odorizzi ($10,900): You may ask yourself: why is Odorizzi priced like an ace? He is an ace at home. Odorizzi is 5-0 with a 1.24 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts in six home starts. Add to that the fact that the Royals are only hitting .211 in 57 at bats with 16 strikeouts, and Odorizzi looks like the elite play he is priced as. I really hope the rain stays away because I want a lot of shares of Odorizzi here.
Mike Minor ($9,700): I’m not a huge fan of the price or the park, but if the Twins game is rained out, Minor is likely the next best option. Hell, Minor just went eight innings of two run ball in Fenway, so he should be able to handle a NL lineup, even one with as many potent righties as the Reds have. I’m not all in on Minor here, but I will have some exposure. There’s enough to like.
Middle Tier:
Aaron Nola ($8,500): Nola held the Braves to just one run on two hits in six innings earlier this year in Philly, racking up 27.3 DraftKings points in the process. In fact, Nola has been pretty solid at home all year. He has a 3.51 ERA in nine home starts. The road has caused him trouble, but Nola looks strong for this price. The Braves are only hitting .235 with four homers and 12 runs in 119 at bats. The 26 strikeouts are a little low, but again, Nola’s home strikeout totals are very good. He’s worth a shot in this price range tonight.
German Marquez ($8,100): Marquez has a staggering 29 strikeouts in just 78 at bats against the Padres. Whatever damage they do will be mitigated by that strikeout total. Marquez was far from sharp against the Padres in San Diego a couple of weeks ago, but his high strikeout total still put him in the 20’s for DraftKings points. I don’t expect big things from the San Diego offense, and this looks like a sure win for Marquez.
Bargain Pitchers:
Sean Newcomb ($7,700): Newcomb racked up 25.9 DraftKings points in just 4.2 innings against the Pirates thanks to allowing just one hit. My thing with Newcomb is that he’s not really stretched out. This Phillies offense is nothing to be afraid of right now, but they do hit lefties better than righties. However, if Newcomb can go six innings here, he’s going to be well worth this price tag.
Michael Wacha ($5,500): Wacha, after his nice start in Florida last week, now has not allowed a run in his last 8.2 innings pitched. Yeah, it’s a small size, but for a guy that had an ERA in the mid 6’s before the streak, that’s a huge sign of progress. There is risk since this Mets offense is pretty good, but what really has me willing to take a chance on Wacha aside from the price is what the Marlins did to the rest of the Cardinals staff and what they have done since. Wacha is really the only guy to hold them down in the last week.
My picks: Odorizzi, Nola; Odorizzi, Wacha
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
I’m still using Twins bats regardless of the wind. Glenn Sparkman has a 8.22 ERA on the road, and this team clobbers right handers. Kepler, Polanco, and Rosario are in play even in the lineups that I don’t stack with. Nelson Cruz, Jason Castro, and Miguel Sano are all worth a look too. No Twin is a wrong Twin.
The Yankees are planning a true bullpen game, which is unfortunate because most of their bullpen is right handed. However, I wouldn’t shy away from Eloy Jimenez right now. He’s really starting to hit. Jose Abreu and Leury Garcia are worth using as well, but it’s harder to choose White Sox when you don’t know what’s coming.
Reynaldo Lopez is better at home, but he simply can’t be trusted. I think many are going to go with Yankees bats here, so I don’t know how much exposure I really want here. Didi Gregorius is probably my favorite play because the price is right. I could see using Clint Frazier or Brett Gardner as well.
Is one start enough to start believing in Michael Wacha again? Probably not. However, that doesn’t mean I’m ready to go after him like he was pitching to open the season. Conforto, Alonso, and Dominic Smith are worth a look, but I’m not sure how much I believe in the rest of the Mets offense. The Toddfather does have two homers and four RBI against Wacha in his career though.
I don’t quite think Thor is back yet, at least not enough to pay $9,300 for him. However, his 3.27 ERA since May 1st signals that he is pitching better. The Cardinals aren’t going to do to him what they did earlier this year. I could see taking a shot with Yadi or Marcell Ozuna, but beyond that, I don’t have much interest. However, Paul DeJong and Goldschmidt are super cheap and have both hit Thor for a better than .300 average.
The Rangers have hit Tanner Roark well. Yeah, broken record, I know. Just about every team has hit Roark well because he allows a ton of base runners. Roark also gets out of more tight spots than David Copperfield. I really like Odor and Asdrubal Cabrera for the price here. Nomar Mazara is worth a look as well.
I don’t care who else you play tonight, but Trevor Story needs to be in your lineup against Eric Lauer. Both of his hits in four at bats against Lauer are homers and he has six RBI. I want Arenado too if he is in the lineup. After that, a cheap Mark Reynolds and Ian Desmond look really good too.
Wade LeBlanc is nothing special, but he has been better when Seattle uses an opener. No matter. Khris Davis is still elite for hit price. Mark Canha and Matt Olson have both homered against LeBlanc as well. Stephen Piscotty is worth a look on the cheap as well.
Yu Darvish has done a good job with limiting baserunners lately, and at just $7,200, I will admit that it crossed my mind to use him. This is the Dodgers though. Yu may have held his own in Coors, but he’s still giving up a lot of homers. Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson hit a lot of homers. This may not end well for Darvish.
Step back and take a breath, people. Buehler’s great outing was against the Giants. The one before that was against an Arizona team that can’t hit righties most of the time. Buehler is less than two weeks removed from getting smoked by the Mets at home. I’m not willing to pay his price, and honestly with the way the Cubs are priced here, I may go with more than just a one off. The Cubs hit Buehler well in Wrigley about three weeks ago. Kyle Schwarber, Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez are all between $4,000 and $4,300. Screw it, I’m stacking Cubs!
DraftKings MLB one-off plays:
If you want to go after Odorizzi today, make sure it’s with Whit Merrifield. Merrifield is 4-10 with two homers and four RBI in his career against Odorizzi. I could see taking a shot with Alex Gordon too. Gordon is 5-15 with a homer and seven RBI against Odorizzi.
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Choosing where to take shots at Mike Minor is pretty hard. It’s easy to get swallowed up in the intoxicating power of the Reds, but they also come up empty a lot. Suarez and Puig are probably the best places here, but honestly, I think all of the money is better spent elsewhere than trying to find the one batter Minor makes a mistake to.
Nick Markakis is probably the Brave you want. He is 8-20 with two homers and five RBI against Aaron Nola. Josh Donaldson is 3-8 with a homer, and is also priced very reasonably.
Bryce Harper has both Philly homers against Newcomb, but his slump is so deep I don’t even want to chance him right now. I think I would rather take a shot with Hoskins instead. Scott Kingery looks really good too.
The Padres do have four homers against Marquez, but with only Austin Hedges having any kind of sustained success against him (I use that term loosely. Hedges is just 2-8), I’m more inclined to chase with a too cheap Manny Machado and be done with it.
Tom Murphy is the only Mariner to homer against Frankie Montas so far. The only Mariner that I really like here is Kyle Seager. Nothing else really stands out since Montas can be elite if he’s on. That said, Montas has allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his last three starts. He hasn’t been on in a while.
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