MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – June 17 – Lynn-Sanity
Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s MLB DFS action was led by a dominant outing by Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer who put up a slate leading 43 fantasy points on the back of an 8K complete game shutout. Offensively there was no shortage of fireworks as the Nationals, Reds, Braves, Blue Jays and Yankees all went for 10 or more runs on Father’s Day.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Monday Pitching Breakdown:
With some rain risk in Washington and Cincinnati, we could see some of the bigger pitching names on this MLB DFS slate be taken out of play which could make a difficult pitching slate to navigate even tougher.
Let me start with this – I think the Kenta Maeda and Miles Mikolas pairing is going to be the super cash game chalk as both pitchers are 200+ home favorites against the Giants and Marlins who not surprisingly have the two lowest IRT’s on the slate.
Maeda has faced the Giants one this year and managed only 11.8 fantasy points while Mikolas will face the same Marlins team he just gave up 5 ER against in his last start. Vegas may be telling you this is the route in cash games but for GPP’s, I am going to have zero interest.
There is only one truly elite K arm on this slate based off the last month of data – a pitcher with a 34.4% K rate who even at home, is getting zero respect as a home underdog against the Cleveland Indians. Lance Lynn ($18.4K) has been a strikeout machine in his most recent outings with 7, 8, 8, 10 and 11 K’s against the Red Sox, A’s, Royals and Mariners and while it may feel uncomfortable to pay this much for a home underdog, he is the only arm on this slate that has had this kind of K upside since the beginning of May.
The fact that he is an underdog and with opposing starter Mike Clevinger likely to gain some buzz in his first start since coming off the IL, I really think Lynn becomes a GPP difference maker here tonight. In his last five starts, Lynn has an exceptional 44 to 6 KK:BB ratio, giving up only 1 HR with a 42% GB rate and 13.3% swinging strike rate. Now, the Indians can and will likely go lefty heavy which does cap some upside for Lynn has he has a 31% K rate to right-handed batters versus only a 20% rate to lefties so keep that in mind when the lineups are released.
With the Seattle Mariners selling off their assets as bats like Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion are now in the northeast, and with Mitch Haniger, well um, “nursing” an injury – this Mariners lineup is one I think we need to go out of our way to pick on.
The projected lineup here tonight against LHP Danny Duffy ($14.9K) has a 30.3% K rate against LHP in 2019 and it ticks up to 30.5% when you take it back to 2018. Duffy’s K upside definitely lies in lefty heavy lineups as his K rate is 8% higher against LHB and the Mariners will likely have 4 of them in their lineup tonight.
Each of the last four lefties (Martin Perez, Jose Suarez, Wade Miley and Andrew Heaney) to pitch against this Seattle team have struck out at least 6 with Heaney racking up 10 K’s so there is clearly some K upside against this banged up Mariners line-up and Duffy at under $15K could be the best SP2 point per dollar play on this slate as a result.
If you want to drop even farther down, then go right back to the well with Elieser Hernandez ($11.9K) who will face the same Cardinals team he struck out 7 against in his first start for the Marlins. Hernandez was someone we used in that first outing as his 34% K rate at AAA was hard to overlook and he carried over that K upside in his first start – throwing 96 pitches and generating 14 called strikes and 18 swinging strikes for a 14.2% swinging strike rate.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.5 and with some severe splits to left-handed hitters, opposing pitcher Tyler Beede could be in some serious trouble against this power hitting Dodger line-up.
Beede on the season is giving up a .353 ISO, .492 wOBA, 48.1% HC rate and a tidy 3.52 HR/9 rate to left-handed batters in 39 PA’s and while the sample size may be small, you are not trying to stretch this to a mediocre lefty line-up to argue the play – you are putting a low K arm like Beede up against some of the best lefty bats in baseball.
Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson all have .260+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of 2018 with Joc and Bellinger well over .300 in 2019. Every single one of them has a fly ball rate well over 40% with HC rates over 44% and while they are pricey – I think this three-man stack is a core build for cash games or GPP’s here tonight.
I spend a good chunk of time on DFS Twitter and while I cannot remember who said it, a few weeks back someone simply tweeted – if I just stacked the Minnesota Twins every night, I would probably have made tons of money this year – and while it may seem like a simple statement, it is incredibly true.
All the Twins do is hit – and while Rick Porcello is not an arm I normally go out of my way to target, this becomes a spot where when all else fails, do you just stack what has been the best offense in baseball in 2019? Look at the top four in this line-up – Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario – all have .225+ ISO marks against RHP this season all with elevated fly ball rates and 40% or higher HC rates.
When you step back and look at this slate, this doesn’t feel like a night where I have to pay up for pitching so there is merit to going super heavy on power bats with the Dodgers and Twins and hoping that the bats can carry the slate.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
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SP: Danny Duffy
SP: Elieser Hernandez
IF: Cody Bellinger
IF: Max Muncy
IF: Jorge Polanco
OF: Nelson Cruz
OF: Max Kepler
OF: Eddie Rosario
UTIL: Joc Pederson
UTIL: $6.7K One-Off
Slate Overview: Outside of using Lance Lynn as a leverage low-owned GPP play at the top, I think this is a slate where you can make a strong argument to pay down at pitcher and load up on bats.
There are only two pitchers (Lynn and Zack Wheeler) who have a 25% or higher K rate over the last month and with arms like Berrios, Corbin and Castillo facing tough offenses, I think saving salary at pitcher and chasing high upside K arms like Duffy and Hernandez is a viable route in GPP’s that allows you to get two of the most dangerous offenses in baseball.
Enjoy the slate all – we will see you back here on Tuesday.
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